gary17

It's too early for popcorn.

@StubbleJumper OK i deleted my comment if you want to delete your quote of my onw deleted comment ! it was a question, i have no idea who it was. just a random guess.

I had a really , really wonderful year in 2023 - no point posting how well I did, i mean i don't really even believe it myself -- it's really just luck and being able to tag along all the great ideas that were shared on this board; i have been madly focused on running a small business that I am a part of, and the portfolio made of FFH and the usual tech companies simply out performed . I was a skeptic of FFH in earlier years; but slowly I was convinced of Prem changing direction - especially when he acknowledged some of the poor decisions he made few years ago. I am not sure how to express my thanks to people, but I made meaningful donations to local charities at the end of 2023 -- the community here definitely helped made it possible for me to do so. Thank you to Sanjeev for having this forum and having me here to tag along.

Merry Christmas to everyone ! It’s been a really great year , but above all else health and happiness are the most important. Wishing everyone a healthy & happy new year

It is hard to place significant value of this writing when he only done 3.2% since inception vs. 13.2% for the S&P500 !

HA HA HA

Just to clarify, the 8x to 10x = 10% ~ 12.5% return on investment for me - and i think that's OK given the risk free rate is around 5% - so demanding another 5 % - 7% return on the risks. but clearly it's not trading at 8x - 10x; it's trading at 5.5x or 18% ROI. So market is pricing the risk at mucher than my 5 - 7%. So the market may know something i don't.

If I was any good i wouldn't be on this forum all the time for great insight from the smart people ! lol for me i think because FFH is trading close to book, so ROE is also close to return on my investment. If it's a stable business and the prospects are good, i think i'd be happy to pay at least 8- 10x or whatever the market is at. I've found over the years paying market price for good business worked out just fine. At 8-10x, that'd make this $1280 - $1600usd/share - and by that measure FFH is certain under-valued. I am not sure what the market is also factoring in, but perhaps the cost of borrowing for the investors - if one can get 4 - 5% from fixed income, certainly reduces appetite for stocks. Also opportunity cost of what else is in the investment universe . And perhaps the market is still waiting to be convinced the underlying investment philosophy - the lost decade - won't be repeated.

MMM20, thanks, i totally get what you are saying. The cheap cost of capital is an advantage. I just wish they could get even higher returns for the cheap capital they can get - but I guess the nature of insurance business is such that they can only invest in certain types of securities / fixed income for when there's a payout. I think higher valuation could come when they start transforming to be more like Berkshire with wholly owned subsidiaries. Gary

hi Viking - thanks for all this. makes sense. For me FFH is cheap, but it does seem like they earn a low return on invested capital; they are only showing decent return on equity because it's a leveraged business. my high level observation. Gary

Taiwan's GDP per capita surpassed Japan's - Gary

one i follow for years but never really pulled the trigger in a meaningful way is PAC - they operate airports in Mexico. https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/PAC?qsearchterm=pac stocks done well over the last 15 years + 4% yield at the moment. Was higher yield before.

risks related to the debt ceiling.... i think that's what the market is pricing in.

@MMM20 What's Scotia's target price? TIA!

i don’t have sophisticated analysis or in depth knowledge like many here - so many thx especially to Viking. and petec. i have always thought they had some good records. got an interesting bag of business. for me the big one was if Prem & co acknowledged their earlier mistakes and willing to course correct. i think i heard that quite clearly from him in a conf call and that’s when i decided to buy shares. i don’t like his kids on the board etc. but i think i will watch out for that.