chrispy

The frequently mentioned statement about guiding to 15% CAGR and not hitting it is so obvious that I do not understand why it is worth including for an insurer valued at PB=1

Cannabis is a schedule 1 drug and while the sentiment is changing, it is far from normalized like alcohol for instance. I cant use a one hitter at the thanksgiving table. California which is regarded as the north star for cannabis culture in the US (along with CO and a couple of others), the following example shows the level of NIMBY even after many years of state legality: "Only 161 of California's 482 municipalities and 24 of the 58 counties have opted to allow commercial cannabis activity of any sort" And New York just had their opt-out deadline: "However, there are still a significant number of areas where cannabis commerce won’t be immediately permitted, with one list from the Rockefeller Institute counting 642 dispensary opt-outs and 733 consumption site opt-outs as of Sunday." While I expect normalization to continue, the above examples provided physical evidence of the local zoning and regulations that will not be impacted by any federal legalization.

I disagree but appreciate your opinion. The sector certainly has many ifs and could turn out to be a terrible investment. But I am more bullish on the MSOs. If Biden today said cannabis will become legal today then how long do you think before it actually happens? 6 months, 2 years, 5 years? New York will take 2-3 years to go from medical to adult use. The US still has it ranked worse then fentanyl. Growing cannabis at scale is very difficult. What makes anyone believe that British American Tobacco can with zero experience? Constellation burned billions on a terrible investment in Canadian operations. They dont appear to be very competent in this sector. Local municipalities zoning have and will continue to limit cannabis retail locations (and cultivation unless one believes interstate commerce will happen). This is what no one talks about and it has nothing to do with federal legality. How does MO or BUD all of a sudden get retail in a suburb which already has 3 dispensaries and the NIMBYs dont want anymore? So if they cant grow, they cant get land for new grows, and they cant get retail then their only option is to buy an existing operator. And this will all take many years to play out which means the MSOs will be bigger and the tax revenue will be greater to states who wont want to give it up. The question to me is when.

Ive heard the argument, which seems most sound to me, is that those who can pass a bill in the senate and house are only worried about being elected by the citizens of their state. So, what would make them want to disrupt the status quo (jobs, tax revenue, etc) to their state at the cost of ruining a sector in their state and losing re-election? I therefore think the most likely outcome is the fed to say we dont care about this anymore, it is state by state, figure it out. Dont forget, these businesses were deemed essential during COVID, state budgets have been decimated, the terrible laws within the US have forced each state to go at it on their own, and therefore states will do whatever it takes to retain the jobs and tax revenue. We are many, many years from Mexico/Colombia shipping weed into the US. Look at how ridiculous US laws are regarding cannabis, how little change is occurring despite 60-70% of americans believing it should be decriminalized, and now we think that south american countries which are looked down upon by the US will be able to import a previously schedule 1 drug!? It may happen but it is a long way out. Lastly, the MSOs which have retail and cultivation within states are likely to have a dominant position where they are building operations. In california, and now NJ, less then 50% of counties allow for ANY cannabis dispensaries. Few communities will allow for cannabis stores on every block or shopping center. Therefore, those which have locations, have cultivation, have shoppers in the habit of visiting their stores will be in a commanding position. Additionally, with NJ going adult use there is now the problem of getting an industrial property to build out cultivation. These buildings are being used up by fullfilment centers and then of course you have the zoning regs described earlier. The ones with cultivation built out, TerrAscend for example, are going to print money for a minimum of 2 years while the whole state finally gets to feast on recreational cannabis. This was pretty good from JW Asset Management (Jason Wild of TerrAscend):

Nice catch on Friday and thank you for sharing your discussions. The 4-5 percent gain on the Canadian exchange does not seem to fully reflect the transaction. Puts the share price right where it was a week ago... Will be interesting to see if shares will be available for FRFHF at a good price in the morning

Based on what we learned from the most recent filings and call, I think that thought is probable as well

So if we dont hear any news in the next few days than Prem did not sell shares, correct? Would we then expect to hear during the next quarterly call about any actions Fairfax did/did not take?

In fact, John Chen will hit his compensation and can retire early without finishing the job. haha

I wish there was some level of certainty on this mystery short position / I wish Fairfax would actually stop shorting.

31% in my managed accounts 40+% in Employer 401k Made the decision early on to put my entire 401k into cash as the markets were still slightly positive and the downside seemed tremendous if shut downs happened. Had a child on Mar 20th and the hospital at the time was the most eerie place I have ever spent time. Deserted and nothing but ominous talk of the virus on the way. No one was wearing masks at the time. Based on that, I am quite proud I was able to deploy all capital shortly after near the bottom. Bought higher quality companies so I could set it, forget it, and take care of my family and other life demands. What is amazing about 2020 is I could have easily had -10 to 10% returns and also could have had >70% returns. I have learned a tremendous amount during 2020 with regards to investing and businesses. We all saw an entire business cycle in 9 months. Thank you to everyone on this board for their contributions.

AMT is now my 3rd largest position. Small positions in FROG, GOCO, GDRX

As many people have years of experience following Fairfax, is this amount of insider purchases atypical?

I have always been planning on buying a boat and predicted at the age I will be in 3 years is when the purchase is feasible and reasonable (exciting and depressing). This could coincide perfectly with the first or second Fall after covid restrictions are lifted and recent buyers realize they never use it and do not want to winterize it again

Sold off the rest of ANSS

AMT-near a low for the year if we exclude the few days in March