Author Topic: BABA - Alibaba  (Read 59338 times)

Liberty

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BABA - Alibaba
« on: April 20, 2014, 07:42:48 PM »
http://oraclefromomaha.wordpress.com/2014/04/20/whats-alibaba-really-worth-2/

Good read. I'm not even looking into the company as I don't know enough about China, but I thought it was very instructive to look at these other similar business and see how even if you discount back to the IPO, you could have paid very high multiples and still have done well. Reminds me of a recent post by @Jesse_Livermore where he did a similar thing with Wal-Mart and other companies:

http://philosophicaleconomics.wordpress.com/2014/03/22/wmt/
« Last Edit: September 19, 2014, 06:41:11 AM by Liberty »
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PatientCheetah

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Re: Alibaba
« Reply #1 on: April 20, 2014, 07:58:29 PM »
The power of secular trend on your back - China transforming into a consumer economy!
risk as little as possible until all the stars have aligned

Longer Term: FB MSFT BABA JD YRD

wbr

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Re: Alibaba
« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2014, 02:54:40 AM »
I think these great businesses that do not rely on superior capital allocation but benefit from the fact that they are low capex, platform businesses usually related to virtual services with extremely strong moats due to network effects are still very much underappreciated.

There might be value where most people arent looking for it. Among typical value investments I have also owned Baidu since it went below $100 at the end of 2012 and I am certainly looking at Alibaba which could be a great valueplay. Though I agree with the author of the article that buying Yahoo for Alibaba might not be a good idea. And of course it doesnt mean you should pay any price but I am hopeful that the IPO price might suffer if the current tech market environment continues to be cautious.

yadayada

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Re: Alibaba
« Reply #3 on: April 21, 2014, 07:58:08 AM »
there are other companies that own large stakes in alibaba. I remember reading a write up on it a while ago. Cannot remember where tho :(

rykelsap

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Re: Alibaba
« Reply #4 on: April 21, 2014, 08:05:28 AM »
The write-up you are thinking about is likely a VIC write-up on SoftBank. The link to the VIC write-up is below:

http://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/value2/Idea/ViewIdea/114243
« Last Edit: April 21, 2014, 08:44:52 AM by rykelsap »

ajc

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Re: Alibaba
« Reply #5 on: April 21, 2014, 09:31:46 AM »
This article optimistically pegs Yahoo's core business at a negative $10 billion dollar valuation due to Alibaba - http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/04/the-peculiar-worthlessness-of-yahoo/360851/?utm_content=bufferdc957&utm_source=twitter.com

Also, according to a Seeking Alpha commenter (http://seekingalpha.com/article/2098753-how-to-play-the-alibaba-ipo-yahoo-vs-softbank-vs-others), 0.3% of Alibaba is owned by China Dongxiang (HK:3818) which apparently amounts to 63 Hong Kong cents per share.
I've not looked into it yet, but the stock currently trades at HK$ 1.52 per share.

Somehow though, I'd be surprised if the market isn't mispricing things somewhere between Softbank, Yahoo and China Dongxiang. How much of that is simply my enthusiasm talking though, I can't really be sure.



fareastwarriors

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Re: Alibaba
« Reply #6 on: April 21, 2014, 01:17:41 PM »

SpecOps

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Re: 1688:HK - Alibaba
« Reply #7 on: April 22, 2014, 12:54:08 AM »
I got interested in it after reading the article. The internet seems to gravitate naturally towards monopolies which creates very strong moats for the likes of FB, GOOG and Amazon. If Alibaba trades below forward PE 20 I will most likely take a punt at it.
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jouni1

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Re: 1688:HK - Alibaba
« Reply #8 on: April 22, 2014, 02:29:28 AM »
what's the HK ticker for? i thought it was going to list in new york?

PatientCheetah

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Re: 1688:HK - Alibaba
« Reply #9 on: April 22, 2014, 05:52:44 AM »
what's the HK ticker for? i thought it was going to list in new york?

There is no HK ticker. Alibaba decides to list in NY because HK will not accommodate its ownership structure and among other reasons.
risk as little as possible until all the stars have aligned

Longer Term: FB MSFT BABA JD YRD