Author Topic: BABA - Alibaba  (Read 61951 times)

yadayada

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Re: 1688:HK - Alibaba
« Reply #20 on: April 23, 2014, 04:24:59 AM »
yeah if there is so much growth this will become the largest company in the world p retty quickly. For over a trillion $. Isn't that a bit rich?

Also, how do they pay shareholders outside china, since they make money in renminbi? Arent there some complications?
« Last Edit: April 23, 2014, 06:25:12 AM by yadayada »


Liberty

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Re: 1688:HK - Alibaba
« Reply #21 on: April 23, 2014, 08:24:04 AM »
Here's part 2 of the post that made me start this thread:

https://oraclefromomaha.wordpress.com/2014/04/23/alibaba-part-2-an-overview/
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PatientCheetah

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Re: 1688:HK - Alibaba
« Reply #22 on: April 23, 2014, 07:01:59 PM »
Here's part 2 of the post that made me start this thread:

https://oraclefromomaha.wordpress.com/2014/04/23/alibaba-part-2-an-overview/

After reading the post, the key question is to whether to overpay with the full knowledge that fundamental will catch up given enough time or potentially lose out an opportunity of a lifetime. In a sadistic sense, I wish we can have another recessions and get the chance to buy another "priceline."
risk as little as possible until all the stars have aligned

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yadayada

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Re: 1688:HK - Alibaba
« Reply #23 on: April 24, 2014, 04:52:30 AM »
arent there capital restrictions in china in regard to paying out $ to foreign shareholders if they make money in renminbi? How does that work here?

PatientCheetah

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Re: 1688:HK - Alibaba
« Reply #24 on: April 24, 2014, 06:42:49 AM »
arent there capital restrictions in china in regard to paying out $ to foreign shareholders if they make money in renminbi? How does that work here?

They get around the restriction through share buyback. We are unlikely to see any dividend in the near future. Actually I am not really sure. I used to own SNP. It's a state owned oil refiner. They make their money in renminbi. I got my dividend payment.
risk as little as possible until all the stars have aligned

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hillfronter83

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Re: 1688:HK - Alibaba
« Reply #25 on: April 24, 2014, 06:57:02 AM »
arent there capital restrictions in china in regard to paying out $ to foreign shareholders if they make money in renminbi? How does that work here?

I'm not aware of any regulation that requires different treatment for foreign or domestic shareholders. There are many chinese companies on NYSE that pay regular dividends. I wouldn't think this is a much different situation than Apple's Chinese subsidary that needs to send back its profits.

bmichaud

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Re: 1688:HK - Alibaba
« Reply #26 on: April 24, 2014, 07:13:43 AM »
May have already been posted, but good article on Alibaba:

http://oraclefromomaha.wordpress.com/2014/04/20/whats-alibaba-really-worth-2/


hillfronter83

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Re: 1688:HK - Alibaba
« Reply #27 on: April 24, 2014, 07:44:30 AM »
is there any % of income from alibaba reflected in softbank's figures? They will do 4-6 billion$ in income this year (alibaba). I dont think a 35x multiple is unreasonable for the ipo here. a 33% stake would imply roughly 57 billion$.

Softbank did 3 billion $ in net income, so you pay about 33 billion for the remaining business. Which seems pretty cheap.

If you value softbank at 15x earnings, then your getting alibaba for between 22-33x earnings. Which seems really cheap for a business like that (or at least 22x earnings is). You have serious growth prospects, really high return on capital and a big moat.

sina holds a 1% stake. Ticker is SINA. They bought 50 million$ in octobre 2011. So i assume that is 1%? so that is worth north of 1 billion. They also hold 100 million $ worth of Youku Tudou shares, apparantly the chinese youtube?

And they did 45 million in net income in 2013, and are growing. revenue grew 25% YoY, but gross profit grew 40%. and there seems to be some leverage there. So you could argue that their core business is worth more then 10x earnings?

Anyone have an opinion on Sina?

Where did you find information about Sina's equity holding in other public trade securities? Sina down over 5% due to government investigation about porngraphy. Current market value is about sum of cash and Weibo stake.

yadayada

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Re: 1688:HK - Alibaba
« Reply #28 on: April 24, 2014, 07:46:53 AM »
that oracle of omaha guy probably has gotten some new regular readers because of that post.

And if you google you see they got about 56% i think of weibo after the IPO and selling off a stake to alibaba. And 200 million$ worth of alibaba, and 100 million$ worth of youku toudu or something. But I doubt the chinese youtube will make money anytime soon. Im not even sure if our youtube makes money.

PatientCheetah

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Re: 1688:HK - Alibaba
« Reply #29 on: April 24, 2014, 08:47:06 AM »
that oracle of omaha guy probably has gotten some new regular readers because of that post.

And if you google you see they got about 56% i think of weibo after the IPO and selling off a stake to alibaba. And 200 million$ worth of alibaba, and 100 million$ worth of youku toudu or something. But I doubt the chinese youtube will make money anytime soon. Im not even sure if our youtube makes money.

Our youtube makes 3-4 bil in net income. With 30-40% growth, the right valuation is somewhere between a Twitter and a Facebook.
risk as little as possible until all the stars have aligned

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