Author Topic: ALIOY - Actelion  (Read 19624 times)

writser

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Re: ALIOY - Actelion
« Reply #60 on: June 29, 2017, 02:54:50 AM »
Idorsia now up ~75% since listing a few days ago. Pretty amazing. CEO and his buddy have raised their stake from 15% to 23% in a few days.

I sold all my shares last week. Maybe that was too early but I heard that that's the trait of a good value investor ... Anyway, no clue how to value this thing so I can't be too unhappy about my decision to sell. Congrats to those still holding on.
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rijk

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Re: ALIOY - Actelion
« Reply #61 on: June 29, 2017, 03:19:44 AM »
fascinating to be invested in a biotech stock, you can almost feel the animal spirits......

this is far from a value stock, but the field they are in has endless potential and the team has
demonstrated to be capable in building a 30 billion business from scratch in no time

never done this, but i plan to stick with this one for the long run.....

Hielko

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Re: ALIOY - Actelion
« Reply #62 on: June 29, 2017, 03:27:34 AM »
Idorsia now up ~75% since listing a few days ago. Pretty amazing. CEO and his buddy have raised their stake from 15% to 23% in a few days.

I sold all my shares last week. Maybe that was too early but I heard that that's the trait of a good value investor ... Anyway, no clue how to value this thing so I can't be too unhappy about my decision to sell. Congrats to those still holding on.
I have a very small position as a result of the merger arb, and I decided to just hold it until there is a good reason to sell. I can't value this company either, but I do like the situation. Small spin-off that might be undervalued because former Actelion holders don't want it. CEO that has been very successful with Actelion now doing again what he loves doing. That's the kind of spin-off you should want to own, or at least not just sell it as soon as you get it. I don't want to be the guy that blindly sells to create an opportunity for someone else. Since I can't value it I'm not buying it either, but selling a spin-off (especially one with a good structure/background like this) just feels wrong to me.

netnet

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Re: ALIOY - Actelion
« Reply #63 on: June 29, 2017, 02:52:54 PM »
Idorsia now up ~75% since listing a few days ago. Pretty amazing. CEO and his buddy have raised their stake from 15% to 23% in a few days.

I sold all my shares last week. Maybe that was too early but I heard that that's the trait of a good value investor ... Anyway, no clue how to value this thing so I can't be too unhappy about my decision to sell. Congrats to those still holding on.
Although press reports had it opening at 10, I believe it opened at 13 and change;  was in available to you on a when issued basis (my broker did not have the when issued shares.)

Quote
this is far from a value stock, but the field they are in has endless potential and the team has
demonstrated to be capable in building a 30 billion business from scratch in no time

You can cut value many ways.  A proven, shareholder friendly operator at a reasonable valuation, i.e. money in the bank for development with a pipeline and a marketing partner is a value in my estimation. Honestly, this would count as a better 'value' than BRK when Buffett took over. (It won't be but prospectively it looks better. i.e. better looking prospects with a proven operator, which Buffett was not, he was 'only' a proven investor.)
« Last Edit: June 29, 2017, 03:41:03 PM by netnet »

writser

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Re: ALIOY - Actelion
« Reply #64 on: June 29, 2017, 04:16:22 PM »
Although press reports had it opening at 10, I believe it opened at 13 and change;  was in available to you on a when issued basis (my broker did not have the when issued shares.)

This was not an IPO, no when-issued trading AFAIK. The opening auction was at 10. VWAP for the first 30 minutes of trading was 10.62.
When you are dead, you do not know you are dead. It's only painful and difficult for others. The same applies when you are stupid.

Jurgis

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Re: ALIOY - Actelion
« Reply #65 on: June 29, 2017, 07:23:09 PM »
netnet, I remember we talked about biotech spinoffs including Idorsia and how they are good places to invest. I looked at it the day it opened, no way to value, stock up 30%+, put in order around the bid/ask, it ran away, I said screw it, won't chase.

I see the meta-thesis and it's likely you gonna make a bunch of money on this. But it's tough to buy without any valuation and no upcoming valuation for quite a while. And with a runup out of the gate.

Yeah, I bought a tiny bit of KHTRF some time ago and still holding, but really it's tough.

Good luck.

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netnet

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Re: ALIOY - Actelion
« Reply #66 on: June 30, 2017, 02:08:19 PM »
netnet, I remember we talked about biotech spinoffs including Idorsia and how they are good places to invest. I looked at it the day it opened, no way to value, stock up 30%+, put in order around the bid/ask, it ran away, I said screw it, won't chase.

I see the meta-thesis and it's likely you gonna make a bunch of money on this. But it's tough to buy without any valuation and no upcoming valuation for quite a while. And with a runup out of the gate.

Yeah, I bought a tiny bit of KHTRF some time ago and still holding, but really it's tough.

Good luck.

8)

Thanks. Yes it is hard to value, but you have to make an educated guess on the pipeline, (good), operator(excellent, and proven) and, so as to overall value, this is hard but frankly I have seldom seen a insider buying into a spin (except John Malone).


netnet

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Re: ALIOY - Actelion
« Reply #67 on: July 03, 2017, 01:36:53 PM »
My problem with this spinoff is that disciplined limit orders meant that I only got a small fraction of what I wanted before it got away, now up 2x.

Voodooking

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Re: ALIOY - Actelion
« Reply #68 on: July 05, 2017, 02:27:28 AM »
I started buying in at 12CHF and I'm still buying up to 20CHF and every time it dips below 20CHF in order to build a large position.

I feel that this is what Clozel has done / is doing and that this is a textbook Greenblatt spinoff opportunity.

Large insider ownership, insider ownership increasing in number of people and in value, Actelion was one of the biggest companies on the Swiss stock index, meaning institutional investors who owned a 30bn pharma company likely won't want to or won't be able to own a 2bn R&D biotech company, this means forced / blind selling which keeps the price stable for buyers.

Couple this with someone who turned a garage business with his wife into a 30bn concern, still has all his staff, and wants to do it all over again... I think this is the type of person we want to bet on and along with the drugs he has already in development, I'd venture as far as to suggest that this is what Buffett would call a moat.

I view this as something with a long runway and a possible 10x / 10-bagger in a few years. I'll be comfortable holding up to 30% of my portfolio in this and hoping for the best.

Jurgis

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Re: ALIOY - Actelion
« Reply #69 on: July 05, 2017, 07:47:46 AM »
this means forced / blind selling which keeps the price stable for buyers.

So nowadays 80% runup is called blind selling that keeps price stable::)  :o

Oh well.
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo
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"American History X", "Milk", "The Insider", "Dirty Money", "LBJ"