Author Topic: ALJJ - ALJ Regional Holdings, Inc.  (Read 25494 times)

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: ALJJ - ALJ Regional Holdings, Inc.
« Reply #60 on: March 20, 2018, 07:42:43 AM »
Ravich recently bought more shares on the open market. Since the purchases were made only about 2 weeks away from the end of the quarter, a reasonable person might suspect that ALJJ's next set of quarterly results will be significantly better than their last.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1094988/000094787118000251/xslF345X03/ss84412_4.xml


Snorky

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Re: ALJJ - ALJ Regional Holdings, Inc.
« Reply #61 on: March 26, 2018, 01:50:47 AM »
Is anyone a buyer at these level ?

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: ALJJ - ALJ Regional Holdings, Inc.
« Reply #62 on: May 16, 2018, 09:08:42 AM »
I bought some of this yesterday at $1.85. Given the risks inherent in their debt load, this is a small position for me. Here are a few notes, in no particular order:

* If they hit the lowpoint of their 2018 adjusted EBITDA guidance the company is trading for less than 5.5X EV / adjusted EBITDA. Even after I made some adjustments due to [insert Buffett's standard criticisms of EBITDA here], the company still looks cheap.

* D&A runs far in excess of capex, with lots of amortization expense that I don't think has much bearing on economic reality

* The quarterly segment revenue guidance the company is providing doesn't seem to make much sense. The midpoint of the Q2 revenue guidance was $87.55M. The actual print was $95.1M! I think their Q3 revenue guidance is similarly conservative, due to a mismatch between the revised 2018 EBITDA guidance and Q3 revenue guidance. I don't think both can be right. 

* The EV of the company is currently less than the sum of what they paid for their acquisitions. I don't think this is a decisive data point, but it means more than nothing.

* I don't give the NOLs or Carpets any value in my model. I continue to think they should sell the Carpets segment.

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: ALJJ - ALJ Regional Holdings, Inc.
« Reply #63 on: July 05, 2018, 11:52:27 AM »
I bought some of this yesterday at $1.85. Given the risks inherent in their debt load, this is a small position for me. Here are a few notes, in no particular order:

* If they hit the lowpoint of their 2018 adjusted EBITDA guidance the company is trading for less than 5.5X EV / adjusted EBITDA. Even after I made some adjustments due to [insert Buffett's standard criticisms of EBITDA here], the company still looks cheap.

* D&A runs far in excess of capex, with lots of amortization expense that I don't think has much bearing on economic reality

* The quarterly segment revenue guidance the company is providing doesn't seem to make much sense. The midpoint of the Q2 revenue guidance was $87.55M. The actual print was $95.1M! I think their Q3 revenue guidance is similarly conservative, due to a mismatch between the revised 2018 EBITDA guidance and Q3 revenue guidance. I don't think both can be right. 

* The EV of the company is currently less than the sum of what they paid for their acquisitions. I don't think this is a decisive data point, but it means more than nothing.

* I don't give the NOLs or Carpets any value in my model. I continue to think they should sell the Carpets segment.

Sold all my ALJJ shares recently at $1.90 - $1.95.

Even though, I made a little money here, I consider having bought ALJJ initially a mistake, as it broke my "never buy anything that has more than a minuscule chance of being a zero unless there's a overwhelmingly strong and compelling reason to do so" rule. While I still think ALJJ is cheap, it's not so stupid cheap that i feel compelled to own it.

RoadToUtopia

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Re: ALJJ - ALJ Regional Holdings, Inc.
« Reply #64 on: August 01, 2018, 08:51:10 AM »
Anyone still following this one?

I'll be attending the annual meeting on 8/17. I would be happy to ask mgmt any questions folks might have.

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: ALJJ - ALJ Regional Holdings, Inc.
« Reply #65 on: August 01, 2018, 09:30:44 AM »
Anyone still following this one?

I'll be attending the annual meeting on 8/17. I would be happy to ask mgmt any questions folks might have.

Two questions off the top of my head:

1) Why has the "Carpets" segment underperformed in a strong Las Vegas housing market? Is Ravich willing to divest this segment if performance does not improve?

2) Any plans to de-leverage?