Author Topic: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals  (Read 1763696 times)

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #150 on: April 27, 2011, 06:30:11 AM »
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Alderon-Appoints-Former-Iron-iw-2428213151.html?x=0&.v=1

Alderon is loading up. interesting that his options were priced at $3.40 (300000). Happy to see that.

Dazel.


Liberty

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #151 on: May 02, 2011, 02:39:02 PM »
ALS has been falling quite a bit on the market lately. Anybody loading up?
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Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #152 on: May 02, 2011, 04:40:24 PM »

We were most of the volume Friday so we will step back and hopefully get some cheaper.

Dazel.

Eric50

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #153 on: May 02, 2011, 10:21:49 PM »
Dazel -

It seems that you keep buying more and more since you've raised this idea. To assess the strength of your conviction, would you mind sharing how much of your total AUM do you have in ALS?

Feel free to ignore my question if you do not want to share that - I'd completely understand.

thanks
Eric

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #154 on: May 03, 2011, 07:21:28 AM »


Eric,

I have a good portion of my net worth in it. This is what we like... unfortunately it is tough on some
investors. It is in our best interest to be quiet...we have played out our case. If you simply add the numbers together you can see what we see. I know it is tough on investors to see investment drops...however, historically averaging down has produced our greatest winners. Remember Fairfax. The difference here is that your down side is protected by cash and 0 debt...we see little risk...we see an investment company not a commodity company...you might want to ask yourself why Leucadia has not had the same pull back.
we still think that the market sees uranium and that is their  mistake.
good luck.

Dazel.

goldfinger

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #155 on: May 03, 2011, 09:45:01 AM »
Quote
we still think that the market sees uranium and that is their  mistake.

It could also be the correction in Alderon shares which was kind of expected.
And I have noticed that a lot of resource (metals) related stocks have corrected in the last week (maybe end of QE2 approaching or something...).

Eric50

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #156 on: May 03, 2011, 10:42:28 AM »
Dazel -

Thanks for the kind answer. I agree with you that this is incredibly cheap - I just wanted to see how strong your conviction was. I've also increased significantly my position recently. I see many green lights:
- quality of management: Dalton has an incredible track record for his age;
- the business model is - as you've said - almost perfect: the company is exposed to mining without any capex;
- it's a way to benefit from the secular bull market in commodities with some diversification;
- from a US perspective, it's way to invest in a stronger currency:
- it is very cheap, worth at least twice the current market within a year or two.

Re the uranium perception that's weighting on the price, the price of uranium has started to increase. Hopefully that will change the perception!

Eric

Liberty

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #157 on: May 03, 2011, 12:21:57 PM »
It could also be the correction in Alderon shares which was kind of expected.

Anyone care to elaborate on that? Why was it expected, and what's going on there? I haven't been following Alderon too closely lately..
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Myth465

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #158 on: May 03, 2011, 01:22:48 PM »
Q: Do you think businesses like See’s candy, or hard assets such as railroads are superior in a inflationary world?

The first group is superior. You have the price power. The worst business is one that has a lot of receivables. Normally we were not enthusiastic with utilities and railroad. The ideal business, See’s candy, was doing $25 million when we bought it. We are doing $300 million now. We only had to plough back $30 million in the business. We don’t have receivables and much fixed assets. See’s Candy is far better.

The ideal asset is the royalty on someone else’s sale. That kind of asset is inflation protected. We deployed in utilities and railroads because we cannot find enough business like See’s.

----

This company will be a beast if they can get the assets into the right hands. LUK is minting money with that royalty. Its tough you need a buyer, but one with big pockets who can push through regardless of the commodity cycle.

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #159 on: May 03, 2011, 03:39:43 PM »
today we were the bid at $12.20..no takers...we got small amounts at $12.21...I don"t know how much more disclosure I can give! Ya pay up I know!

a couple of things...
we are alone... there is 0 coverage of Altius...plenty of coverage of Alderon...5 to 6 houses with targets all the way to $6. If it were at $5 or $6 we would
not be talking about it...It is the "new find" in Canda iron ore with that comes volatility...

Myth is right...They have two agendas....with regards to Alderon...continue forward with the successful drill program expanding the resourse and with that putting together a world class development team...this will bring up the value of Alderon.

The second and more important to us the Altius shareholders, is to find the right partner. When they sold out of the Uranium project in 2007 they used forward stock agreements to essentially give them a hedged sale price of a $200m gain in the market. The 2% NSR there maybe worth a great deal in the future but the property has changed hands now to Paladin (a stronger player) this takes time....I am sure they are now thinking why did we not go to Paladin and Cameco in the first place...The NSR may have been paid out much quicker.

We think this time they are looking to sell directly to the right partner rather than in the market. Preferably the same partner from China who made a killing for their 19% stake in Thompson Consolidated. This does two things: ensures them that the project moves ahead quickly and brings up the value of the 3% NSR on the properties. Remember that Brian Dalton has told us the NPV of the their NSR is worth $100m at half the iron ore price of today. We assume that the value then is $200m today...that is double what the value of their Alderon stake is...see what we mean. The negotiation that Dalton is undertaking in China right now would likely have priced that NSR in....why else would they know it?  We have no access to their negotiation nor have we spoken to Altius...other than the email we disclosed. Common sense tells us this is what is going on. Why not copy Thompson Consolidated completely? The other options are sell the NSR with the stake and take the money now.

Speculating...You have one announcement that changes the perception of Altius' value. That would be the successful negotiation of good terms in an Alderon deal. The market will not count the $300 million in value until it is done..the market is not counting the value the Alderon shares alone! We are willing to wait for for this type of scenario..and after it happens we will likely wait for the next one or two after that!

Dazel.