Author Topic: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals  (Read 1762433 times)

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #320 on: September 01, 2011, 08:03:12 AM »

I am pretty sure they are different for each company....not positive though.

Altius usually releases results around September 10th ...so I am assuming they are in a black out period.



finetrader

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #321 on: September 04, 2011, 05:51:47 AM »
Quote
Crazy times indeed:

Altius Market cap: $300m

Cash: $190m
Alderon shares : $100m
Royal Gold shares: $38m

Total: $328m

Everything else: $-28m

It seems like the market is pricing Altius as if its stake in Alderon was going to zero.  Meanwhile it prices Alderon as if development will continue.  Something has to give...

What I like is we get Voisey Bay royalty for free. This somewhere between 75-100M worth.

I'm curoius to see what they can recuperate from the refinery project... 5-10M?


I have not seen anybody discounting the ~5M$/year expense in General and administrative.
Would it not more or less cancelled the Voisey Bay royalty ?
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jjsto

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #322 on: September 04, 2011, 08:05:32 AM »
I have not seen anybody discounting the ~5M$/year expense in General and administrative.
Would it not more or less cancelled the Voisey Bay royalty ?

Don't forget about interest on cash.  I think that currently pays for about half the General and administrative.  Conceptually, to be conservative, I think about the company as essentially being funded by the royalty and the interest on cash.  Even if you cancel the voisey bay royalty out with the G&A it is still cheap.  In my own spreadsheet I also haircut cash and subtract all the liabilities.  But, that is just to look at the numbers in an extra conservative way.  In reality, if you are investing in the company for the long run, you are implicitly assuming that management will be bringing significantly more than $5 million in added value per year...

goldfinger

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #323 on: September 04, 2011, 11:53:53 AM »
I remember having read in a letter or article explaining the Voisey Bay royalty Dalton claiming that the company was essentially funded with it for the next 25 years or so...

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #324 on: September 06, 2011, 01:28:02 PM »
Voisey Bay... is Royal gold's largest royalty and is trading there at aPE of above 60 right now...$37 million for less than 6 months will make it the largest contributor to Royal Gold's portfolio in this calender year...
Now if you assumed Royal Gold wanted the rest of it from Altius, how much would they pay for it? If I were getting a multiple like like that I would think about paying a good amount of money to get it...half of their multiple is 30 times...which makes it worth well over $100 million....and immediately at a value in range $ 300 million to Royal Gold. Actually things get better for the value....As Vale is spending about $2.6 billion in capital at Voisey Bay....

http://www.vbnc.com/NickelProcessingPlantCareerInfo.asp

As for admin expenses they were $2.5m, $4.8m in the previuos years...obviously in good years there are bonuses paid.
Income 2 years ago was $4.5 m and this year the Royal Gold share appreciation will add $20m plus. We are not worried about the admin costs as you can see there is a ton of value in this company if you have a look. We think it is ridiculous what you could get for this company in an auction of their assets....
Royal Gold could buy the whole company for less than cash and get the entire purchase price out of their new multiple on Voisey Bay alone!

Dazel

Thrifty3000

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #325 on: September 08, 2011, 05:47:17 AM »
Alderon PEA released with a NPV of $3.07 billion:

http://www.alderonmining.com/_resources/news/2011-09-08-NewsRelease.pdf

bathtime

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #326 on: September 08, 2011, 06:46:13 AM »
Alderon PEA released with a NPV of $3.07 billion:

http://www.alderonmining.com/_resources/news/2011-09-08-NewsRelease.pdf

Would that make the NPV of the 3% royalty approx. 90 million?

Liberty

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #327 on: September 08, 2011, 06:48:50 AM »
Quote
“We are very excited to see such a high NPV, especially since this PEA is only based on the Rose
Central zone  of the Kami Property.  There is  significant upside once we include North Rose and
Mills Lake,” says Tayfun Eldem, President and CEO of Alderon.  “These positive results allow us to
move directly to the Feasibility Study phase and we expect that report by the third quarter of 2012.”

The PEA demonstrates very attractive project economics.  Based on a production rate of 8 million
tonnes per year of iron ore concentrate at a grade of 65.5% iron and an iron recovery of 82.8%, the
PEA shows a Net Present Value (“NPV”) of US$3.07 billion at a cash flow discount rate of 8%.  The
internal rate of return (“IRR”) for the project is 40.2%.

Wonder what kind of NPV North Rose and Mills Lake have. Anywhere close to Rose Central, or just a small faction? I don't remember seeing anything preliminary on those, but maybe I missed it.
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naboo

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #328 on: September 08, 2011, 07:03:09 AM »
Quote
“We are very excited to see such a high NPV, especially since this PEA is only based on the Rose
Central zone  of the Kami Property.  There is  significant upside once we include North Rose and
Mills Lake,” says Tayfun Eldem, President and CEO of Alderon.  “These positive results allow us to
move directly to the Feasibility Study phase and we expect that report by the third quarter of 2012.”

The PEA demonstrates very attractive project economics.  Based on a production rate of 8 million
tonnes per year of iron ore concentrate at a grade of 65.5% iron and an iron recovery of 82.8%, the
PEA shows a Net Present Value (“NPV”) of US$3.07 billion at a cash flow discount rate of 8%.  The
internal rate of return (“IRR”) for the project is 40.2%.

Wonder what kind of NPV North Rose and Mills Lake have. Anywhere close to Rose Central, or just a small faction? I don't remember seeing anything preliminary on those, but maybe I missed it.


"Alderon is presently exploring the Rose North deposit which is not developed sufficiently to be included in the PEA. As the Mills Lake deposit is anticipated to account for a much smaller portion of the overall resource, it has not been included in the PEA."


As mentioned in the release,  Mills Lake is ignored, but I want to know how small that is? (1M, 10M or 100M, or even 1B to be ignored).  I am waiting for the number from North Rose too. Hope it could surprise us.

Market has no reaction to this release.



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Liberty

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #329 on: September 08, 2011, 07:09:04 AM »
Market has no reaction to this release.

Mr. Market is so strange sometimes. Alderon is barely up and Altius is actually down. I kind of expected it for ALS, but thought ADV would move more on this kind of news.
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