Author Topic: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals  (Read 1165723 times)

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #5480 on: February 11, 2018, 07:47:24 AM »
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/labrador-resurgent-graham-letto-1.4529762

A CBC news story today about economic developments in Labrador. Mentions Alderon is in talks with the government to develop Kami. "Not a done deal" because the company "is still trying to raise the capital needed to move forward."

We know.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2018, 07:58:51 AM by linealdin »


linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #5481 on: February 11, 2018, 06:24:16 PM »
http://www.allegiancecoal.com.au/irm/PDF/1305_0/DrillProgrammeCommencesStrongDemandforCore

Allegiance begins drill program at Telkwa for geotechnical data and coal sampling. Company claims strong demand from numerous Asian steelmakers for samples of the Telkwa coal for coke oven tests. Steelmakers are both potential offtakers and JV partners. Increased the number of diamond drill holes from 6 to 16, also using wider diameter hole for better recovery.

Samples will be delivered to the steel mills by March 2018. Allegiance will do its own coke oven tests in April.



« Last Edit: February 11, 2018, 06:27:41 PM by linealdin »

Crip1

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #5482 on: February 12, 2018, 11:49:05 AM »
Any catalyst for a 10% bump in pricing today?


-Crip

Gamecock-YT

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #5483 on: February 12, 2018, 12:33:54 PM »
Any catalyst for a 10% bump in pricing today?


-Crip

The 10% decline from the past week?

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #5484 on: February 13, 2018, 09:13:26 AM »
ALS is basically moving up and down in line with other commodity and royalty stocks. FNV as a bellweather royalty stock has sharply corrected from $106 in late November to $90 today.

There are potential short-term catalysts for a significant move up (to $20) in the next 6 months:

1) Closing one or more royalty financing or project financing deals. I understand ALS management is flying around looking at a number of deals. Who knows if anything closes.

2) I think the market would react positively to news of the traditional term/revolver debt being wiped out. They could easily do it by cashing in a portion of their LIF and/or CIA holdings.

3) CIA stock should rise significantly with the March restart of Bloom Lake and a big promotional push by O'Keeffe. I believe Altius has a potential 15 million share CIA position (10 million convertible debenture plus 5 million shares purchased at 90 cents).

4) A significant discovery drill hole on Altius royalty land. Evrim's Cuale looks like a very promising gold/silver prospect. Wolfden and Adventus should be reporting step-out exploration drill holes from their respective known deposits all year.

Williams406

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #5485 on: February 13, 2018, 10:55:42 AM »
 Hard to see them sell off the LIF interest. Maybe if something happened to advance Alderon development, but Dalton likes iron ore prospects and that position delivers a look-through iron ore royalty for Altius. The company is on record as saying paying down the debt is a huge priority this year, though, so we'll see how they approach that. I'd like to see Altius apply a surprise settlement from Vale to the debt. Not holding my breath on that--even if I'm optimistic long term there, I was a long-suffering Callinan shareholder during their legal battle with Hudbay...

I am very interested to see what Champion's next moves are once they get Bloom Lake up and running.

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #5486 on: February 13, 2018, 12:21:24 PM »
Agreed. More likely they sell the Champion position (or other equities) than the LIF.

But strictly as a trading vehicle the big move for LIF has already happened. Altius got its first tranche around $13.50 and its next tranches around $16.50. If LIF hits $30 Altius is looking at a double, just in the stock price appreciation. Add in the dividends and that’s another 30% in gains.

Where’s the upside for LIF? For the stock price to move significantly beyond $30 we’d have to see the iron ore price go crazy or IOC announce expansion plans to 27 MTA or beyond. No signs of either of those things happening.

*

The debt’s been knocked down from $71 million at the end of October to $66 million at year end. I believe selling some but not all of the Excelsior position helped with that payoff. If Champion runs up because of the Bloom Lake restart it could be the next target to fund debt reduction.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2018, 12:28:43 PM by linealdin »

Williams406

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #5487 on: February 13, 2018, 01:02:03 PM »
Dalton described his view of iron ore as "super bullish" in a Junior Stock Review interview which, apparently lands just behind "mega bullish." Given the majors can bring large quantities of higher-impurity ore online, Dalton's view suggests to me he may think the premium for Labrador Trough ore may be more structural and longer lasting such that shares of a cash-flowing royalty pass-through Lab Trough iron ore vehicle aren't the first assets out the door from here to reduce debt. I don't think he'd hold that view on iron ore just be/c he thinks the Biggies will remain disciplined in bringing on new supply. I'm just spit-balling on all of the above. Frankly, full-year royalty cash flow gets them a good part of the way to debt elimination. We'll see what they do.

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #5488 on: February 13, 2018, 02:01:20 PM »
http://www.rengold.com/i/pdf/2018-02-13_NR_REN_fEJPvP4R.pdf

Renaissance Gold partner updates:

Anglogold Ashanti, the world’s 3rd largest gold producer, in January 2018 started a 3000 meter drill program on the Silicon property. Altius holds a 1.5% royalty.

Ramelius Resources is pleased with initial drill results at Jupiter (9.1 meters of 1.1 g/t gold). Plans follow-up drilling this summer. Altius holds a 1% royalty.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2018, 02:04:07 PM by linealdin »

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #5489 on: February 14, 2018, 09:50:39 AM »
Dalton described his view of iron ore as "super bullish" in a Junior Stock Review interview which, apparently lands just behind "mega bullish." Given the majors can bring large quantities of higher-impurity ore online, Dalton's view suggests to me he may think the premium for Labrador Trough ore may be more structural and longer lasting such that shares of a cash-flowing royalty pass-through Lab Trough iron ore vehicle aren't the first assets out the door from here to reduce debt. I don't think he'd hold that view on iron ore just be/c he thinks the Biggies will remain disciplined in bringing on new supply. I'm just spit-balling on all of the above. Frankly, full-year royalty cash flow gets them a good part of the way to debt elimination. We'll see what they do.

I believe LIF will pay an average of $2.50 in annual dividends for the next 5 years. That would be a little under C$8 million in annual revenue at Altius’s 3.15 million share position. I don’t think the LIF stock will move much above $30 or $35 unless something unusual happens (big expansion at IOC).

I suppose there’s nothing wrong with sitting back and collecting that C$8 million every year. Especially because the cost basis of the LIF investment is only C$48 million or so.