Author Topic: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals  (Read 1484465 times)

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6110 on: July 12, 2018, 09:25:07 AM »
If you remember a while back newly imposed US tariffs on Canadian steel were supposed to somehow crush the global steel market and thus deplete global demand for iron ore from Canada. It hasnít happened. Demand for high grade iron ore concentrate and pellets from Canada is booming. Record setting premiums. I was right to be skeptical of the thesis.

Iím deeply skeptical today that Trumpís antics will somehow change the fundamentals of the copper market: declining productivity from mines and electrification of the world requiring immense amounts of copper. This turbulence will be old news in a couple of months.

The US is a geopolitical superpower but its economic influence is a bit overrated. Nothing Trump does will keep China from building out cities for its urbanizing population. Nothing Trump does changes the desires of people in the lowest economic quartile for electricity.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2018, 09:55:40 AM by linealdin »


linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6111 on: July 12, 2018, 09:43:40 AM »
https://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2018/07/wheaton-stuff-things-wpm-and-price-of.html?m=1

Cobalt price has declined 15.2% since announcement of the Wheaton/Cobalt 27 stream financing deal for Voiseyís Bay in June. Wheaton had been claiming an 8% IRR at the spot price at the time of announcement. What is the IRR at todayís spot?

Dangers of stream/royalty financing at the top of the market. Vale has done well by selling the cobalt at the top and getting their underground mine financed. Altius should benefit once the litigation is resolved.

Altius must remain contrarian.

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6112 on: July 12, 2018, 11:11:20 AM »
https://www.alderonironore.com/news/2018/488-alderon-closes-us-14-million-loan-facility-with-sprott-resource-lending

Alderon closes the US$14 million loan from Sprott/Altius and pays off the Liberty debenture.

Altius receives an additional 687,290 Alderon shares, bringing its total to 52,526,206 shares, or 38% of equity.

bizaro86

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6113 on: July 12, 2018, 11:30:35 AM »
http://aethonminerals.com/storage/presentations/aethon-minerals-july-2018-1531323750.pdf

I don't care who spends the money as long as the money is spent on Altius royalty land.


I agree with this wholeheartedly.

I am very hopeful that a mine gets built on an "organic" ALS land position this cycle. If they got another Chapada without the upfront payment, not only would the cash flow go up, but I think them proving out the business model would increase the multiple.

Growth in income and multiple has the potential to be significant when combined.

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6114 on: July 12, 2018, 12:12:28 PM »
Stage 1 of Excelsior will certainly be built. Should be online in early 2019.

In the next 5 years odds are Stage 3 of Excelsior and Telkwa will also happen. Low capex, long life assets. Altius gets about C$9 million in combined annual royalty revenue from the two mines.

Kamiís going to happen, as well. Too many good things favoring the Trough. Staged production is a path Alderon probably doesnít want to take (damages overall economics) but it may come to that.

It has to happen now. In 5 to 7 years a slew of other high grade iron ore mines (in Ukraine, Sweden, Brazil or Quebec) will be permitted and built to replace the non-competitive Western Australia production. Premiums will dwindle and the opportunity will be gone.

bizaro86

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6115 on: July 12, 2018, 03:07:16 PM »
Stage 1 of Excelsior will certainly be built. Should be online in early 2019.

In the next 5 years odds are Stage 3 of Excelsior and Telkwa will also happen. Low capex, long life assets. Altius gets about C$9 million in combined annual royalty revenue from the two mines.

Kamiís going to happen, as well. Too many good things favoring the Trough. Staged production is a path Alderon probably doesnít want to take (damages overall economics) but it may come to that.

It has to happen now. In 5 to 7 years a slew of other high grade iron ore mines (in Ukraine, Sweden, Brazil or Quebec) will be permitted and built to replace the non-competitive Western Australia production. Premiums will dwindle and the opportunity will be gone.

If I had your confidence in Kami getting built this cycle, I would probably have your position size in ALS! Kami even at a half-size is a big deal. If they miss the window here and a couple of big long-life high Fe% mines get build elsewhere it could be a long time before the next window, especially if China's growth starts to get less steel intensive over time, which I think is likely. I really wish I could trust Morabito&co to raise the money/build Kami...

Thanks for all your great updates!

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6116 on: July 13, 2018, 04:20:14 AM »
https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/PXX/01999230.pdf

Revised PolarX press release about the 55 meters of visible copper, now with detailed description of the drill core and estimated percentages of copper in each section.

55 meters of 3% copper would be a nice start.

mugwump

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6117 on: July 13, 2018, 08:47:12 AM »

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6118 on: July 13, 2018, 09:22:54 AM »
appeal filed re: excelsior permit
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/excelsior-mining-provides-permitting-update-a301f

Appeal is from a local yokel, not from an environmental group with legal counsel. Not a very sophisticated appeal letter. This will be dismissed.

This may not be the last of it. I assume a serious environmental group is preparing a 50-page appeal letter and  waiting to file at the last possible moment. Delay tactics.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2018, 09:27:57 AM by linealdin »

nostradamus

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6119 on: July 13, 2018, 09:43:38 AM »
appeal filed re: excelsior permit
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/excelsior-mining-provides-permitting-update-a301f

Appeal is from a local yokel, not from an environmental group with legal counsel. Not a very sophisticated appeal letter. This will be dismissed.

This may not be the last of it. I assume a serious environmental group is preparing a 50-page appeal letter and  waiting to file at the last possible moment. Delay tactics.
Is there a specified period of time in which groups can lodge appeals against the permit? If so, when does it end?