Author Topic: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals  (Read 1508145 times)

mugwump

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6840 on: November 27, 2018, 06:37:46 AM »
labrador iron ore royalty dropped 9% yesterday
and is falling again today
any news?
http://www.labradorironore.com/Home/default.aspx


linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6841 on: November 27, 2018, 06:52:00 AM »
labrador iron ore royalty dropped 9% yesterday
and is falling again today
any news?
http://www.labradorironore.com/Home/default.aspx

Overreaction to a slump in the high grade iron ore market. 65% Fe has dropped from around US$97 to around US$81.

LIF still makes a crapload of money with 65% Fe iron ore anywhere around US$80 because more than half its production is pellets, which receive US$50+ premium over the 65% Fe price.

High grade survives most price scenarios. IOC's per tonne operating cost is a little under US$50 per tonne. If high grade ore prices drop to US$50 then there's reason to worry.

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6842 on: November 27, 2018, 07:00:50 AM »
http://www.explorationmidland.com/en/MediaHandler.ashx?MediaId=c35b770a-6cf5-4b53-9b58-735fd744df7b

http://www.explorationmidland.com/en/MediaHandler.ashx?MediaId=bf3bb83f-319e-4b02-9d3d-2042d4c91c7c

Midland greatly increases its land position at Mythril (Altius 1% royalty) to 804 square kilometers. Soil geochemical survey has confirmed the trend. Airborne electromagnetic and ground IP surveys planned in the upcoming weeks.

This is the new flagship project for Midland. They have claimed all the available land around the discovery area. I expect a significant drilling program in the spring.

mugwump

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6843 on: November 27, 2018, 07:03:09 AM »
thanks linealdin
you're really on the ball

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6844 on: November 27, 2018, 07:15:01 AM »
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4906461

Ball said a second major meeting revolved around iron ore and mining, adding it's a big commodity in the Chinese market. A deal between Alderon Iron Ore Corp. and HBIS, a Chinese steel enterprise, is in the making according to the premier.

"We're trying to get that deal finalized. They've made a commitment to that, and we feel they're going to live up to that commitment," he said.

"It's going to take some time, but it's a 'show we're ready' project, which would mean upwards to a billion dollars for Newfoundland and Labrador."

As for the Dwight Ball comments above, Altius considers the recent China meeting the first in the series of meetings with HBIS to hammer out some kind of restructuring of the project ownership, equity ownership, and offtake rights. Many options on the table, including bringing in another steelmaker as a strategic investor.

I hear a positive tone about the meetings, and I expect some kind of deal to get done.

Alderon's main constraint is that its market cap is so small it can't raise cash by issuing equity (as a part of a construction financing package). So the only solution is to bring in additional investment by selling more of the project level interest in Kami LP, and by redistributing some of HBIS's offtake rights.

This is all in HBIS's interest. Right now they have a 25% project interest and 60% offtake rights in a project that can't be built. Bringing in significant investment from another steelmaker would greatly enhance the project's chance of being built.

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6845 on: November 27, 2018, 07:51:05 AM »
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/scully-mine-lab-west-mining-iron-ore-1.4922028

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/tacora-resources-inc-announces-completion-of-scully-mine-restart-financing-701341642.html

Tacora Resources has successfully raised the financing to restart Scully Mine in summer 2019. Hiring and construction work as begun. Dwight Ball is speaking at a press conference.

Tacora failed with two IPO attempts.

Their solution? Staying private and obtaining US$212 million in private equity and senior secured debt financing and US$64 million in equipment debt financing.

The players involved in these financings are Proterra Investment Partners (private equity), Cargill (private trading house), MagGlobal (private equity). Equipment financing from Komatsu and Caterpiller. This is the smart money.

Maybe Alderon should be taken private. What's the point of being a publicly traded company if you can't raise money with equity issues? The mining junior equity markets are dead. Remember how hard it was for Champion to raise a measly C$20 million in equity?

Kami's a better project than Scully. Better quality ore, no manganese, higher NPV. There's interest from Japanese steelmakers, and likely interest from private equity groups. Combine those groups with Chinese financing (export credit agencies, banks) brought onboard by HBIS and Kami has a shot.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2018, 07:52:55 AM by linealdin »

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6846 on: November 27, 2018, 11:42:23 AM »
https://projects.eao.gov.bc.ca/api/document/5be1e5e7c4337d0024da316e/fetch

Project Description for Allegiance Coalís Tenas Project, filed for the environmental permitting process. Impressive document.

I expect no issues with permitting. Allegiance is professional and has consulted with stakeholders and experts. Theyíve put in the work.

Tenas is going to be a mine because it ticks all the boxes: low capex, excellent joint venture partner, clear path forward in permitting process.

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6847 on: November 28, 2018, 03:53:24 AM »
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/112718-analysis-iron-ore-pellet-demand-in-europe-supported-by-carbon-credits-met-coal-and-coke-price-rise

Iron ore pellet demand is stronger in Europe because of higher carbon emission pricing. Steelmakers have to use less coke and more high purity pellets to avoid carbon pricing. The Port of Sept Iles shows IOCís bulk carriers have been heading to Europe at high rates.

60% or more of IOCís sales will be pellets going forward. Specialty product. What happens in the general iron ore market is less important than what happens in the specialized pellet market.

LIF is oversold.


Williams406

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6848 on: November 28, 2018, 05:11:29 AM »
I'll be interested to see if Altius takes their LIF stake toward 10% if they get good enough pricing. Now its a pass-through royalty asset for them, but closer to 10% combined with perhaps Anglo Pacific bumping up their stake--to the extent Altius and Anglo are like-minded--and strategic considerations emerge.

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6849 on: November 28, 2018, 07:19:59 AM »
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.argusmedia.com/en/news/1797983-atlantic-pellet-steel-slump-rattles-2019-talks%3famp=1

The recent steel and iron ore slump has affected current negotiations for 2019 Atlantic pellet premiums. Will premiums for blast furnace and direct reduction pellets be US$5 or US$10 higher than the record-setting 2018 pellet premiums?

No indication that the premiums will go lower than 2018 levels. The pellet market is tight for specific reasons: Samarco not returning until 2020 at the earliest (at a third of capacity) and no announcements of new pellet supply capacity. LIF will prosper for the next few years based upon their royalty on pellets.

Altius is likely on the bid for more shares.