Author Topic: V - Visa  (Read 38487 times)

Jurgis

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Re: V - Visa
« Reply #100 on: April 17, 2019, 06:47:58 AM »
Do you all incorporate possible regulatory pushback on fees? It's tough to estimate I grant that.
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SlowAppreciation

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Re: V - Visa
« Reply #101 on: April 17, 2019, 07:55:52 AM »
Do you all incorporate possible regulatory pushback on fees? It's tough to estimate I grant that.

I'm not smart enough to estimate it, so I just bake in conservatism elsewhere. I figure cross-border fees are most at risk (either due to regulatory or market factors, or both), so I forecast its growth rate to be about half of what it has been for the past 5-10yrs. And some could argue that a 20x multiple is on the low side.


TheAiGuy

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Re: V - Visa
« Reply #102 on: Today at 02:25:03 PM »
The multiples in those valuations are too probably low if you really get 13% revenue growth for five years....

Current big picture thoughts on Visa:

5 year revenue growth of 13%
share reduction to 2100
Exit EV/Rev TTM multiple of 15.5x
Debt of 70B, Cash of 10B
--> Mkt cap of 539B
share price of $257 at year 5
plus dividends of $8 gets a $265 total return... that gets you between 10% and 11% returns from this level

Anything I am missing?

You can look at it like this too: