Author Topic: GLRE - Greenlight Capital Re  (Read 99168 times)

Liberty

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Re: GLRE - Greenlight Capital Re
« Reply #290 on: February 22, 2018, 07:00:13 AM »
One problem with Einhorn seems to be (based on my skimming of his recent letters, I haven't followed him closely in many years) that he blames external factors for his problems (oh, value has underperformed for such a long time) rather than mistakes in his analysis (maybe I shouldn't have shorted Tesla and Amazon and gone long some of the stuff I've been long).

I bet that if he turns around, he won't say he's up just because of external factors rather than because of his analysis...
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StevieV

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Re: GLRE - Greenlight Capital Re
« Reply #291 on: February 22, 2018, 08:53:40 AM »
I owned in the past, but changed my mind.  Reinsurance by all accounts is too cheap.  Guys like GLRE don't have the relationships, so they get picked-off or have to offer very competitive rates to compete.

On the investing side you are charged 2 x 20.

Also, all other insurers have an investment side that starts with a positive yield.  With GLRE the inv sides starts with a cost.  That is a very different beast.

So you really have to clear two hurdles here, tough operating environment and large fees on inv side.  To me that was too much.

I have a tonne of respect for Einhorn and I do think any future mkt dispersions should see him do very well.  But you really need him to crush it and soon for this to do really well. 

Just my thoughts

I also owned for a bit, and then sold out.  The theory was, Einhorn + investing leverage = compelling math.  It hasn't worked out that way at all.

As someone else noted, both the insurance operations and the investing haven't performed well.  I likely underestimated the difficulty on the insurance side.  I didn't expect that the company would make strong, or even any, insurance profits.  However, I expected the people, prudence and skills to get around break-even.  Probably more difficult than I gave credit for.

On the investing side, Einhorn simply hasn't had good returns lately.  I am not sure this could have been anticipated.  He had a great track record, and I generally agree with his analyses.  It just hasn't been working.  From the investor side, the whole basis of the company is Einhorn's investing.  If he doesn't produce, there is no reason to invest.

rb

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Re: GLRE - Greenlight Capital Re
« Reply #292 on: February 22, 2018, 10:34:04 AM »
Both the underwriting and the investment returns suck, that is why GLRE trades at 0.75x book. Maybe the new mangement fixes the underwriting, but it will some time to play out. The investment side is harder to fix, because I donít think they can fire the investment manager. :P

It is funny how Einhorn pushes for aggressive capital actions with his stock positions, but here he can buy back a dollar for 75c in his own company and dances around it.
If Einhorn would buy back stock at .75 that would maybe be good for shareholders of GLRE (assuming the thing is worth more than .75) but it would mean less money into his fund to charge 2 and 20 so it's not gonna happen. I would love for someone to ask the question on a call though. The mental pretzel to justify not doing the buyback is gonna be a lot of fun.

Spekulatius

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Re: GLRE - Greenlight Capital Re
« Reply #293 on: February 25, 2018, 05:59:14 AM »
Both the underwriting and the investment returns suck, that is why GLRE trades at 0.75x book. Maybe the new mangement fixes the underwriting, but it will some time to play out. The investment side is harder to fix, because I donít think they can fire the investment manager. :P

It is funny how Einhorn pushes for aggressive capital actions with his stock positions, but here he can buy back a dollar for 75c in his own company and dances around it.
If Einhorn would buy back stock at .75 that would maybe be good for shareholders of GLRE (assuming the thing is worth more than .75) but it would mean less money into his fund to charge 2 and 20 so it's not gonna happen. I would love for someone to ask the question on a call though. The mental pretzel to justify not doing the buyback is gonna be a lot of fun.

Agreed on above and these insurance /hedge fund vehicles seem to resemble more poorly managed high fee closed end funds rather than the BRK Original that they were build after. I would love an activist to put pressure on this.
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given2invest

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Re: GLRE - Greenlight Capital Re
« Reply #294 on: February 28, 2018, 04:31:18 PM »
Lost 4.8% in Feb.  OUCH

Lakesider

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Re: GLRE - Greenlight Capital Re
« Reply #295 on: May 29, 2018, 01:06:15 AM »
http://www.sunesiscapital.com/greenlight

Greenlight short thesis. Interesting read.

Value^2

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Re: GLRE - Greenlight Capital Re
« Reply #296 on: May 29, 2018, 02:22:16 AM »
http://www.sunesiscapital.com/greenlight

Greenlight short thesis. Interesting read.

David getting taste of his own medicine. ;D
« Last Edit: May 29, 2018, 02:24:48 AM by Value^2 »

Spekulatius

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Re: GLRE - Greenlight Capital Re
« Reply #297 on: May 29, 2018, 03:26:42 PM »
http://www.sunesiscapital.com/greenlight

Greenlight short thesis. Interesting read.

David getting taste of his own medicine. ;D

I donít think that there is a huge risk that GRLE will get the dreaded PFIF designation. GLRE insurance losses are too substantial for insurance being called  cover operation. That wonít help much fighting the shorts, though.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

ukvalueinvestment

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Re: GLRE - Greenlight Capital Re
« Reply #298 on: Today at 10:30:44 AM »
But their insurance operation has been turning around hasn't it?  It's had a new guy in charge for a year now and the combined ratio is down to 96%.

It feels like sentiment can't get much worse and operations and investments both have scope to improve on the upside.

I don't think that David Einhorn has suddenly become a bad investor.
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given2invest

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Re: GLRE - Greenlight Capital Re
« Reply #299 on: Today at 10:42:39 AM »
It hasn't been sudden.