Author Topic: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals  (Read 925803 times)

linealdin

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 225
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #4480 on: July 13, 2017, 12:39:31 PM »
Edit, as of 11:11 am EST:

...

Champion's shares in Canada reacted well to the financing new, up to C$1.12. (Day high of C$1.18)

Altius's debenture conversion rights position now worth C$11.2 million.
Champion is now at C$1.06; I expected Champion to be up more than this, but that's okay.

I expected a lower stock price today (Aussie shares fell with the financing news). Retail punters hate dilution, and they have another 45 million shares of dilution coming. Plus 24 million warrants. Over the medium term (Q1 2018 is medium term) I expect the stock to be $2 to $3 at beginning of commercial production. O'Keeffe is going to start his stock promoting and media whoring again. Champion doesn't even have an investor presentation on its website right now. Word will get out.

I believe the punters would have reacted better to the news of a $45 million royalty financing to cover Champion's equity stake. Retail investors don't care about giving away a royalty.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2017, 12:56:07 PM by linealdin »


linealdin

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 225
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #4481 on: July 13, 2017, 02:12:28 PM »
Excelsior closes at C$1.04. Altius equity stake worth C$6.1 million. If Excelsior goes into production there's a chance that by itself it pays back the Callinan acquisition.

Cash out $12 million to $15 million in equity, and enjoy $80 million in royalty revenue over the 24 year life of the mine (assuming no increase to Altius's 1% royalty). Commercial production set for Q3 2018.

Callinan acquisition turns out to be a huge win.




linealdin

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 225
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #4482 on: July 14, 2017, 03:05:45 AM »
Buyback:

Wednesday, July 12th, 9000 shares at C$10.91 for a total of C$98,190.

TwoCitiesCapital

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1798
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #4483 on: July 14, 2017, 06:23:46 AM »
Buyback:

Wednesday, July 12th, 9000 shares at C$10.91 for a total of C$98,190.

Definitely glad to see them buying back, but if we're being honest, the current pace of repurchases is less than 1% of shares outstanding annually. Hardly anything to get excited about other than confirming our conviction that the current price is a reasonable one.

linealdin

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 225
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #4484 on: July 14, 2017, 07:21:41 AM »
I'm not excited either. But I do think share buybacks, like dividends, are good for corporate discipline. They could have wasted the C$508K on something random, like renting a nice office in Toronto or taking private jet trips to conferences. Instead they are returning it to the shareholders.



« Last Edit: July 17, 2017, 08:28:00 AM by linealdin »

linealdin

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 225
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #4485 on: July 14, 2017, 07:40:35 AM »
Altius did participate in Allegiance Coal's 1-for-3 rights offering in May. They bought 3,693,713 additional shares at A$2.5 cents (total cost A$92,343) to bring the share total at June 30th, 2017 to 14,649,995 shares held, or 6.48% of Allegiance. (They hold the shares through Citicorp Nominees Pty Ltd, a third party nominee shareholder, which is meant to keep the shareholder anonymous in Australia).

Current market value of position is A$439,500.

« Last Edit: July 14, 2017, 07:46:39 AM by linealdin »

linealdin

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 225
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #4486 on: July 14, 2017, 11:33:57 AM »
Royal Utilties Income Fund used to own the potash royalties. They commissioned a technical report in 2006, available on Sedar. Highlights:

1) CDP unnamed potash royalties are indeed Mosiac's Colonsay and Potash Corp's Lanigan. Both long life mines. Colonsay was idled in July 2016 and restarted in January 2017. Might see an uptake in CDP potash revenue once Colonsay is running full steam again.

2) CDP potash land holdings are all very close to the existing mines, so no chance to create royalties with new parties. Except for at the Bredenbury land, which has no mine, and thus can be considered exploration land. Possible option to a junior for an earn-in once the potash price comes back.

3) Flooding is ever-present danger to the potash mines. One flood and the mine is dead, or turned into low-producing solution mine. Flooding at the cornerstone Rocanville mine would be the ultimate nightmare scenario.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2017, 02:45:55 PM by linealdin »

mikek

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 29
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #4487 on: July 17, 2017, 06:38:07 AM »
Looks like more competition might be entering the non precious metal royalty sector.

That is unfortunate

http://www.globalminingobserver.com/glencore-royalties-antamina-horne-186

linealdin

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 225
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #4488 on: July 17, 2017, 07:31:29 AM »
Looks like more competition might be entering the non precious metal royalty sector.

That is unfortunate

http://www.globalminingobserver.com/glencore-royalties-antamina-horne-186

Altius is fundamentally contrarian. If Glencore creates a major base metals royalty vehicle that is just further evidence we are in a frothy bull market. Altius will not spend big to buy royalties in a bull market. (Smaller special situation deals are possible.) They won't be in competition with Glencore (or Osisko or Anglo Pacific) for expensive low IRR deals.

The bull market is the time to get mines built: Alderon, Bloom Lake, Gunnison, and Telkwa will benefit from a sustained bull run. Might even reach production.

The bull market is also the time to get Other People to spend their exploration money on Altius sourced projects: that is happening with Antler Gold, Canex, First Quantum, Emu NL, Moosehead Gold, Coventry Resources, Anglogold, Ramelius Resources, Oz Minerals, etc. Tens of millions of planned spending.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2017, 07:34:18 AM by linealdin »

linealdin

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 225
Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #4489 on: July 17, 2017, 08:14:10 AM »
More buybacks last Thursday and Friday:

7/13: 9000 shares at $10.91 ($98,198)
7/14: 6500 shares at $11.00 ($71,500)

Total running cost of recent buybacks is C$902,169

This is 2 weeks and 1 day of buybacks. On pace to buy back roughly 4.2% of total shares over a year. Of course this won't go on all year.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2017, 08:33:49 AM by linealdin »