Author Topic: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals  (Read 1021952 times)

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #4830 on: October 12, 2017, 09:09:25 AM »
Chapada is going to be a 50 year mine. Those new deposit discoveries are at similar size/grade as the original Chapada deposit discoveries.

In that 50 years I expect many boom and bust cycles for copper. So what? It will all be gravy. The original purchase price will be paid back a lot sooner than you think, probably before this bull cycle is over. C$5 million a quarter adds up quickly. Do the math!



Liberty

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #4831 on: October 12, 2017, 09:58:55 AM »
Best of luck. Obviously you are highly convinced if you have 100% of your portfolio in it. I was just trying to slide a bit of a different perspective in between the drill hole reports. Maybe some others reading this will have gotten value from it even if you haven't.
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | Watch this, please

cwericb

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #4832 on: October 12, 2017, 10:03:02 AM »
To me, the real value of this board is reasoned, alternative viewpoints. Thanks both, don't hesitate to keep it up. All viewpoints welcomed.

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #4833 on: October 12, 2017, 10:46:42 AM »
Mountain Lake gives up the option on Moosehead. Couldn't raise the $1 million Altius required by September 30th.

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #4834 on: October 12, 2017, 10:58:13 AM »
Last commodity boom wasnt a bubble. A real bubble has your father in law cashing in his 401K to buy bars of gold and your kids dropping out of college to join mining companies. Real world mania.

Dotcom bubble had regular dudes I knew quitting their careers to daytrade tech stocks. Absurdity.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2017, 11:00:38 AM by linealdin »

tripleoptician

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #4835 on: October 12, 2017, 11:45:50 AM »
Best of luck. Obviously you are highly convinced if you have 100% of your portfolio in it. I was just trying to slide a bit of a different perspective in between the drill hole reports. Maybe some others reading this will have gotten value from it even if you haven't.

Appreciate all your thoughts here Liberty. I have suffered greatly from thesis drift on this holding since my original position in 2013.
I realize now it is sloppy investment work to simply say that Altius has huge optionality from its project generation business and apply a high P/E multiple to the royalty side of cash flows.
When I compare ALS to my CSU and TDG positions, it is clear that Altius cannot be a comparable long term consistent compounder based on the fundamentals for the mining industry. The niche critical software and aerospace parts industry has clearly better fundamentals for long term consistent organic/inorganic growth potential.
 
This is despite Dalton structuring this business in the best possible way with the project generation/merchant banking/ value investing slant given the dynamics of the mining industry. The mining industry is simply too unpredictable with commodity pricing swings. Dalton and his crew are going to view trends to help determine if they think we are at the end of the bear cycle - their educated opinion is clearly better then mine. Yet we all need to acknowledge that it is simply an educated bet similar to a macro investor like Dalio predicting economic/interest rate trends. Their intelligence is not a guarantee of outcome.

I have chosen to stick with the position on the probability bet that average commodity pricing doesn't go much lower amongst the weighted average of ALS's different commodity holdings. If commodity pricing is flat for many years, ALS will generate a reasonably safe IRR but overall under my goal IRR. If pricing improves, ALS will be leveraged to this because their optionality will bear fruit. This provides a double whammy improved IRR that can exceed my goal IRR substantially.
If commodity pricing drops, ALS will clearly generate poor IRR's, but it is hard to see how the business fails as debt has reasonable coverage.

Bottom line, I am far less enthusiastic as linealdin around long term prospects. I don't think this company generates long term IRR's like CSU or TDG might because of inherent fundamentals. I do think the current bet is favorable on a probability weighted front, similar to a poker hand. Thus position sizing must be adjusted accordingly.

The bigger question of when to sell ALS I still haven't figured out - let the thesis drift continue!




Liberty

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #4836 on: October 12, 2017, 12:06:06 PM »
Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Tripleoptician. Very good introspection.

I almost said that it's good to know you're going in with your eyes wide open, but that's probably not the best phrasing to use with an optician...
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tripleoptician

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #4837 on: October 12, 2017, 12:14:04 PM »
Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Tripleoptician. Very good introspection.

I almost said that it's good to know you're going in with your eyes wide open, but that's probably not the best phrasing to use with an optician...

Lol. I'm not an optician. I made up that handle in my 20's thinking about 3rd eye/spiritual introspection stuff. I have seen some nasty eye stuff as a doctor though!

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #4838 on: October 12, 2017, 03:09:33 PM »
http://altiusminerals.com/uploads/10-12-2017-ALTIUS-REPORTS-CHANGE-IN-FISCAL-YEAR-END.pdf

Fiscal year change to traditional format ending in December 31st. Kowtowing to the stupid analysts who can't figure out a fiscal year ending in April.

Gamecock-YT

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #4839 on: October 12, 2017, 04:15:20 PM »
Hopefully they push the AGM to the summer. April might be a little rough for St.John's weather.