Author Topic: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals  (Read 1315688 times)

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #5840 on: May 17, 2018, 08:25:12 AM »
https://www.businessnews.com.au/article/Emu-Chilean-drill-campaign-reveals-exciting-geology

News story on the Vidalita drilling. Assays due by the end of the June quarter. Drilling showed visible sulphide mineralization and ďwide intervals of the rock type, textures and alterationĒ consistent with the top of a high value epithermal system.





linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #5841 on: May 17, 2018, 09:43:23 AM »
http://aethonminerals.com/storage/presentations/aethon-minerals-may-16-2018-1526562539.pdf

New Aethon presentation with 3 slides on the recently optioned Llanos. The artisanal miners digging underground tunnels at Gomila exposed some very obvious high grade copper/gold mineralization. A lot of the early stage legwork has been done on this property by the previous owners. They've theorized that there's a buried copper/gold porphory system; the picture on slide 9 is a geological interpretation. The drill bit will quickly confirm or deny the theory.

Previous owner, Southern Hemisphere Mining, complained that it is difficult in Chile to assemble a coherent land package from the miscellaneous claims held by many different parties. Aethon has some work to do acquiring more concessions from private owners.

Slide 16 indicates that there's early joint venture interest for the properties in the Aethon portfolio. Aethon claims to have "strong relationships in place to form partnership alliances to help fund and finance select copper projects" (slide 5).

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Robert Davies, the Aethon CEO, is a bit unusual in the depth of his work experience with majors. I wonder if he uses his relationships at Barrick, Kinross, and First Quantum (which acquired Inmet his former employer) to joint venture some of the properties.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2018, 09:56:20 AM by linealdin »

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #5842 on: May 17, 2018, 10:11:13 AM »
As to how the mechanics of a renewable energy royalty would work? Quite simply: Blue Sky would purchase a royalty on the gross revenue generated from the sales of electricity from a renewable energy plant.

Less room for dispute than most net smelter royalties (which involve deductions which could be disputed as with Voisey's Bay, in an extreme example).

The pressure point for the royalty holder would not involve the size of the resource (sun and wind are infinite) but the length and terms of the electricity supply contract that the renewable energy plant signs. The royalty could end with the end of the power supply contract. New technology could make an older renewable energy plant uneconomic to run once its contract is finished. Most power supply contracts seem to last for 10 to 20 years.

Once a contract is signed there's also no commodity price risk or upside, which is quite different from most commodity royalties. There's basically just a flat rate per kilowatt of electricity supplied, with perhaps a small adjustment for inflation.

The revenue should be steady and predictable.

I would also assume Altius wants to be involved with financing very new projects. There's constant technological change in renewables driving down cost. You want a royalty on the newest technology, which hopefully survives economically for a very long time. No one wants an old windmill.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2018, 10:19:47 AM by linealdin »

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #5843 on: May 17, 2018, 11:32:57 AM »
If Bloom Lake's success is the precursor to Kami being built then the initial signs are very good.

5 bulk carriers loaded with high quality Bloom Lake ore and on the sea headed to customers all over the world:

Magnus Oldendorff going to Qingdao port, China
Seaforce headed to Singapore
Suigo going to Kisarazu port, Japan
Berge Cristobal to Dangju port, South Korea
Lydia Oldendorff to Port Said, Egypt

Two more ships coming to pick up ore later this month.

Hubertus Oldendorff (200,000 tonne capacity) arriving on May 20th.
Sunrise (170,000 tonne capacity) arriving on May 27th.

909,108 tonnes sold from the first 5 carriers plus the two late May boats = 1,279,108 tonnes shipped by the end of May. That's 17.3% of the annual goal of 7.4 million tonnes.

Remarkable execution given that nameplate production won't be achieved until sometime in June. 

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The Champion stock price may not be where its shareholders want it to be (too much dilution) but the market cap is C$509 million. That looks like success. And there's certainly a path to $1 billion or higher market if they prove profitability on the financial statements.

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #5844 on: May 18, 2018, 05:40:12 AM »
The Labrador Troughís direct competition is marginal, low grade production from Australia. What Bloom Lake is going to prove is that high grade Trough ore is more profitable per tonne than the ore Fortescue mines. That is despite Fortescue having the lowest C1 mining costs in the world and much lower shipping costs to Asia.

The price that Bloom Lake receives for its 66% concentrate is double what Fortescue gets for its product. Fortescue canít make up that difference even if they drive their C1 mining costs to zero.

The long term trend is that the Trough will continue to eat away at the huge Aussie piece of the pie. Cliffs closes its Western Australia iron ore operations (11 MTA) at the exact time Bloom Lake ramps up to full production (7.4 MTA). Thatís not a random coincidence.

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #5845 on: May 18, 2018, 07:01:06 AM »
Got a limit order executed on ATUSF at US$10.00, equivalent to an Altius stock price of C$12.88 at current exchange rates. Very pleasing.

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #5846 on: May 18, 2018, 07:29:15 AM »
https://www.google.com/amp/edmontonjournal.com/business/energy/capital-power-sues-province-over-alleged-unreasonable-cut-to-coal-plant-closure-payments/amp

Capital Power, which owns the Genesee power plants, sues Alberta over a cut to its off-coal compensation payments. (ATCO CEO Nancy Southern also mentioned at their investor day that a lawsuit is something they would consider also).

The Altius lawsuit against Alberta is scheduled to be filed sometime in 2018. Whatever basis Capital Power has to sue is the same legal basis for Altiusís lawsuit. I donít think Altius would be going down this route unless they believed there was some chance for victory at trial or through a settlement. They are serious-minded people; this is not a frivolous lawsuit. Win or lose it will cost them $1 million or more.

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #5847 on: May 18, 2018, 08:24:26 AM »
http://avrupaminerals.com/_resources/presentations/Corporate-presentation-May-2018.pdf

New Avrupa Minerals presentation. Pictures of drilling and drill core logging for Alvito. Oz Minerals funded $1.005 million euros, or C$1.523 million in exploration expenses at Alvito in 2017. That was just prospecting/sampling/geophysics and doesnít include the current 2100 meter drill program. Altius expected Oz/Avrupa would spend C$2 million at Alvito in 2018. The budget will blow past that. Costs are high in Europe.

(Total spend by Avrupa and previous partners before Oz signed on was 450,000 euros, or C$682,000.)
« Last Edit: May 18, 2018, 08:30:06 AM by linealdin »

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #5848 on: May 18, 2018, 09:43:02 AM »
Upward Trends with the Esterhazy and Rocanville royalties.

For Esterhazy:

Quarter ended March 31st, 2018: C$544K (including 8 days of Liberty potash)
2 month quarter ended December 31st, 2017: C$303K (excluding C$2.6 million true-up); C$454.5 on 3 month basis.
Quarter ended October 31st, 2017: C$355K
Quarter ended July 31st, 2017: C$293K
Quarter ended April 30th, 2017: C$214K

The royalty revision, besides the one-time C$2.6 million payment, means Esterhazy is yielding C$100K to C$200K more per quarter on a forward basis.

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For Rocanville:

Q 3/18: C$1.484 million (8 days of potash royalties)
Q 12/17: C$863K; C$1.295 million on 3 month basis
Q 10/17: C$1.155 million
Q 7/17: C$968K
Q 4/17: C$948K
Q 1/17: C$733K

The last two quarters have seen the impact of the McChip royalty (effective November 1st 2017) and a lot of production increases.

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Next quarter I expect Rocanville to pop up to C$2.6 million, and Esterhazy to rise to C$950K.

mikek

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #5849 on: May 18, 2018, 02:20:36 PM »
Looks like shareholders weren't very happy with the latest decision, it does add more complications and confusion.  I do really like the recent potash acquisition and hopefully they get that debt refi deal asap.  But nonetheless, investors don't like uncertainty and that latest announcement wasn't a welcome surprise for many shareholders.  Whether it works out or not, time will tell but markets typically don't like management going into new areas that you wouldn't consider their expertise.  I personally don't mind getting into renewables but I think they are doing it the wrong way.  If they just came out and said they will be investing some capital into possible future deals in the renewable royalty sector people would have probably been ok with that. I think shareholders view it like I do that if Altius contributes their coal royalty portfolio they will come out with the short stick in that deal.  I also don't like it because cash flow will go directly to that vehicle and not the parent.  That is a big difference.  Think about it, a lot of investors are already confused with attributable revenue because of the joint ventures, just think what this will do....  I completely understand what they are trying to do but to be honest I don't think it's very intelligent from a lot of different ways.   Management doesn't seem very good at explaining the story or perception of some of the things they do.  I think a lot of investors have lost trust in management over the years and to be honest I can't really blame them. I felt like they were doing a lot of good things in the last couple of years but this move really puts a bad taste in my mouth.  Not to mention, they have said over the years how much room they have to grow in the "Diversified royalty sector" because it's such a small sector compared to the market caps of the diversified mining companies(slide 8 AGM).  If that is true, what in the world are they doing?  Just not the best thing to do from a optics standpoint.  Most of the things they have done over the years are likely to work out but the fact remains that if investors don't trust or understand what is going on it doesn't really matter.  Pretty disappointed in management, I know they haven't done anything yet but they need to be a little more aware on how certain things look and how investors will look at a move.  A royalty company is all about direct cash flow coming into the company and the company "reinvesting those cash flows themselves."  Basically, they are making a simple thing into a complicated thing and therefore they deserve to be punished by the market and rightfully so unfortunately.  Also, they still can find good royalty deals that make perfect sense on "stuff that they actually know."  For example, recent deals like potash deals, could even keep buying more Labrador Iron, I have no doubt that the strike isn't going to last forever.  It's things like this that just completely boggle my mind =(.  This post isn't coming from recent share price action, this comes from whether I think a move is value destructive or creates actual value for shareholders.
« Last Edit: May 18, 2018, 06:21:16 PM by mikek »