Author Topic: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals  (Read 1371373 times)

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6100 on: July 10, 2018, 09:21:10 AM »
https://think.ing.com/articles/iron-ore-grade-is-king-but-the-throne-will-swing/

Excellent analysis by ING of the global iron ore market:

"The premium for the higher grades has become wedded to the profits of Chinese steel mills (profits=purchasing power). Thus prices at the higher end can increasingly be found to swing in almost complete disregard for a more tepid over-supply picture set to put a lid on the broader iron ore complex: low grades and perhaps more controversially the same fate holds for benchmark grades (62%) as well."

ING is basically claiming that the new iron ore benchmark in the future will be 64%+ Fe. Traders right now want new derivatives to hedge the prices of higher grades.

Also discusses heavy alumina penalties and the record-breaking pellet premiums.

Every major development in the global iron ore market is favoring the Labrador Trough.


linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6101 on: July 10, 2018, 09:42:47 AM »
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/china-2020-pollution-plan-adds-uncertainty-to-iron-ore-steel-prices-wood-mac/

"Chinaís import iron ore pellet premiums have surged, with the S&P Global Platts weekly assessment hitting a record $61.95/dry mt on July 4."

IOC is running wild in this price environment. Some of their pellet products reach 68% Fe. The premiums are staggering. The port schedule for IOC this month has smaller carriers making 45,000 or 75,000 tonne shipments of pellets to customers. No need for volume discounts on shipping because the premiums are so high.

I expect major LIF dividends in Q3 and Q4. Perhaps as much as 80 cents each quarter. LIF hasn't seen this favorable an environment in a long time. Samarco, with its 30 MTA of pellet capacity, isn't going to be back in production until 2020 at the earliest, according to most market observers. No competition for LIF's pellets for the next 1.5 years or so.

In 2016 and 2017 IOC's pellet sales were 55% of total sales. IOC's target for 2018 is for pellets to be 60% of total sales. If they hit that target it should make a difference to LIF's royalty revenue.

Also, we should start seeing an appreciable revenue contribution from rail haulage charges for Bloom Lake. IOC is charging Champion around US$13.50 a tonne. 7.4 million tonnes annually x US$13.50 = US$100 million or C$131.2 million in annual revenue. That will matter.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2018, 10:14:20 AM by linealdin »

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6102 on: July 10, 2018, 09:54:47 AM »
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-societe-ferroviaire-et-portuaire-de-pointe-noire-announces-a-call-for-projects-to-relaunch-the-pointe-noire-pellet-plant-in-sept-iles-614282853.html

The old Cliffs pellet plant is still for sale in Sept-Iles. One of the players in the region is going to grab it. Pellet premiums are too attractive to pass.

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6103 on: July 10, 2018, 10:49:28 AM »
https://marketrealist.com/2018/07/potash-prices-stay-high

Strong uptrend in potash prices continues. Noticeable change in all markets from the end of March to the end of June.

We should have the preliminary Q2 royalty numbers in a few days for Altius. I think the total potash revenue, with the Liberty potash acquisition fully integrated, will be close to C$5 million.

Altius to receive C$20 million in annual potash revenue if these market prices hold.

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6104 on: July 10, 2018, 11:53:16 AM »
For Altius Q2 I expect final revenue of C$18.5 million. Potash and Chapada outperform.

Have to wait until Q3 or Q4 for the C$20 million quarter I've wanted for a long time.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2018, 11:55:45 AM by linealdin »

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6105 on: July 11, 2018, 12:48:11 PM »
http://aethonminerals.com/storage/presentations/aethon-minerals-july-2018-1531323750.pdf

New Aethon Minerals presentation. Moving very quickly at Llanos project. Completed mapping, chip and channel sampling, ground magnetics and IP surveys. Initial 4 hole, 1000 meter drill program will begin in mid-July to try to find the buried copper-gold porphyry system.

Assay results for the first 4 holes will determine if they want to continue beyond the 6 month option, which has only cost $100k so far. Very smart option deal structure. Cut losses if drill holes are dry. Enjoy huge upside if they find the theorized copper-gold system.

Chip and channel sampling will start at Arcas in August (Altius 1.5% royalty). Aethon evaluating JV partnership opportunities for Arcas. If Aethon can convince a partner to spend a few million on Arcas then I support that. I don't care who spends the money as long as the money is spent on Altius royalty land.

Aethon is only trading at $5 million enterprise value ($13 million market cap but $8 million in cash). Huge upside if they hit good holes at Llanos.

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6106 on: July 11, 2018, 03:41:40 PM »
http://www.shmining.com.au/images/May_Llanos_2015.pdf

See slide 4. Llanos is theorized to be a larger and higher grade porphyry than Llahuin (150 million tonnes at 0.41% copper equivalent).

From the geological section Llanos looks like it could be 4x the size of Llahuin.

600 million tonnes at, letís say, 0.60% copper equivalent? Juicy target. Hence Aethonís impatience to drill and try to prove the theory.

Chapada is basically a very large, low grade copper-gold porphyry. Aethon hopes Llanos is another Chapada.

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6107 on: July 11, 2018, 06:16:19 PM »
https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/PXX/01998825.pdf

PolarX hits 55 meters of visible copper oxides, from surface, along strike from Zackly. This is a real discovery, not infill drilling.

Awesome!
« Last Edit: July 11, 2018, 06:43:20 PM by linealdin »

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6108 on: July 11, 2018, 08:49:48 PM »
https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/PXX/01998825.pdf

PolarX hits 55 meters of visible copper oxides, from surface, along strike from Zackly. This is a real discovery, not infill drilling.

Awesome!

The 55 meter wide copper mineralization is on Altius royalty land (2% royalty on gold, 1% royalty on base metals). The intense green in the pictures indicates copper. The malachite at the end of the hole can be up to 60% copper. The garnet skarn will be much lower copper. But I expect the hole to assay beautifully.

The SE Zackly buried porphyry target doesnít seem to be on Altius royalty land.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2018, 08:33:18 AM by linealdin »

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6109 on: July 12, 2018, 07:56:16 AM »
http://m.miningweekly.com/article/costs-outweigh-price-of-atlas-irons-ore-2018-07-12

Atlas Iron in Western Australia is producing low grade iron ore at full cash costs of A$62, or US$45.88 per tonne. But it is only managing a sales price of A$59, or US$43.65 per tonne, including hedging gains. At an annual production rate of 9 million tonnes Atlas should lose A$27 million this year. (Atlasís cash balance declined by A$8 million last quarter.)

Obviously unsustainable but the execs will hold on for as long as possible (salaries matter).

Over the medium term it seems inevitable to me that new high grade ore production from the Trough will replace low grade ore production from the minor players in Western Australia. Certain companies will go bankrupt while others will make billions in revenue.

« Last Edit: July 12, 2018, 07:58:45 AM by linealdin »