Author Topic: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals  (Read 1484176 times)

mikek

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6810 on: November 08, 2018, 02:31:46 PM »
Regarding the conference call, it sounds like Altius will be filing some legal action regarding the thermal coal royalties against the government. Probably a waste of time and money with that one. Regarding 777, according to the call the sales had a lag so if that is true that is good because I was concerned that something might have changed there. Q4 is definitely setting up to be 20+ if that statement is true. Glad they are taking the half percent royalty on Excelsior.

Sounds like Altius is no longer contributing the thermal coal royalties to Blue Sky. Probably Blue Sky wasn't going to really give anything due to the high uncertainty of those cash flows. Sounds like the plan is to allocate the thermal coal cash flow directly to renewables and hopefully replace the thermal coal as it disappears. Seems they feel if Alderon is ever going to be built now is the time. Brian is heading to China. Good luck with that. I know they feel Alderon is the biggest possible value creation for Altius which is true but the facts remain that Alderon isn't getting built as a standalone project. Probably just wasting time with that one. Sounds like possible deals could be announced with LRC and blue sky, seems they feel the royalty returns in those two sectors make more sense right now. That was about all I took away from the call.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2018, 02:41:37 PM by mikek »


linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6811 on: November 09, 2018, 02:12:24 AM »
https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4220047-altius-minerals-corp-atusf-ceo-brian-dalton-q3-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript

Here’s a (poor) transcription of the Altius earnings call. Additional tidbits:

1) IPO for Adia Resources will follow the initial winter drill program. Marco LoCascio, former hedge fund manager of Mason Hill (very large shareholder of Altius), will be the CEO. Similarities to the hire of Kargl-Simard at Adventus. Both were capital organizers, not geologists. Juniors need access to cash and LoCascio has the connections.

2) Altius is against amendment of bylaws at LIF. Sounds like they would consider selling their position if a bylaw change were passed.

3) Altius Q4 will likely include a double Voisey’s Bay payment for royalty revenue from Q3 and Q4. The C$351K for Voisey’s was related to the quarter ending June 30th. Additional buildup for a possible C$20 million Q4 for Altius.

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6812 on: November 09, 2018, 02:27:18 AM »
Thermal coal lawsuit filing will be a bid to open up negotiations with the new government coming into Alberta. Conservative Jason Kenney is very likely to be the next premier.

Ideally there’s some kind of market-based solution that ends up with Altius investing a settlement for lost thermal coal revenue into new renewable energy royalties in Alberta. That’s one reason the Blue Sky vehicle was set up, I think. The proposal is: Give us a fair settlement and we will match every dollar and reinvest big in Alberta energy (along with our partners at Great Bay Renewables).

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6813 on: November 09, 2018, 02:42:21 AM »
I estimate Altius will receive another C$75 million in thermal coal revenue before 2030 (this doesn’t include the met coal revenue from Cheviot). I hope the renewable energy business is good enough to invest every dollar of that C$75 million in accretive royalty deals.

Dalton mentioned on the conference call that Altius and its partners at Blue Sky and Lithium Royalty Corp are seeing value in development stage projects. Producing royalties are too expensive.

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6814 on: November 09, 2018, 08:33:27 AM »
More from the earnings call:

1) Lithium prices have been trending downwards in 2018 (halved in the Chinese battery grade lithium market). Thus making it a good market for royalty buyers, like Lithium Royalty Corp.

2) Dalton indicates the strategic market for Kami is better than the overall market. I think there's a good chance Alderon receives a new investment from a strategic investor (private equity, royalty/streamer, Japanese trading house, etc.) in the next few months. The feasibility study will be the basis of the investment.

Would a strategic investment change overall market sentiment towards the stock? Yes, if it's big enough, C$20 million or larger.

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6815 on: November 09, 2018, 01:01:33 PM »
Triple Flag will be receiving a 3.5% stream at full production at Gunnison.

If Excelsior recovers 2 billion pounds of copper over the life of mine then Triple Flag nets 52.5 million pounds (after paying 25% of the market price per pound). Triple Flag pays US$65 million for that 52.5 million pounds, worth US$157.5 million at $3 copper.

Altius nets 30 million pounds of copper from its 1.5% royalty on Excelsior’s 2 billion pounds of production. That 30 million pounds is worth US$90 million at $3 copper.

Altius paid a small percentage of the Callinan purchase price (Excelsior royalty worth little in 2015) and C$5 million for that 1.5% royalty. Maybe C$6 million, or US$4.54 million, total.

Summary:

Altius pays US$4.54 million for a potential US$90 million total royalty revenue.

Triple Flag pays US$65 million for a potential US$157.5 million total net stream revenue.

Getting in early leads to spectacular returns.


linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6816 on: November 13, 2018, 06:43:36 AM »
https://canexmetals.ca/site/assets/files/4991/nr-18-10_summary_of_gibson_drilling_final.pdf

Canex summarizes its 10 hole drill program at Gibson (Altius 2% royalty and equity). "Some holes hit up to 5 separate quartz sulfide veins showing multiple veins within the main Gibson zone." Assays in 5 to 6 weeks.

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6817 on: November 13, 2018, 06:50:59 AM »
https://www.excelsiormining.com/news/news-2018/Excelsior%20Provides%20Pre-Production%20Progress%20Report

Excelsior gives a report about pre-construction. Sounds like they are ready to roll as soon as the Triple Flag US$75 million financing closes in a week or two. 31 employees at the Johnson Camp Mine facility. General contractor selected and wellfield drill contracts signed. Detailed engineering and construction plans complete. Early equipment and vehicles purchased.

If construction proceeds expeditiously Altius could be seeing royalty income from Gunnison in early Q3 2019.

Excelsior is cash-rich. They had US$22.3 million at the end of June 2018, they're raising US$75 million from Triple Flag, and another C$5 million from Altius from the 0.5% royalty sale.

Stage 1 capex is only US$49 million (that includes a 15% contingency). Excelsior should have double that at the beginning of construction. They are very well positioned to handle any construction/wellfield issues.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2018, 07:00:19 AM by linealdin »

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6818 on: November 13, 2018, 04:39:50 PM »
http://www.allegiancecoal.com.au/irm/PDF/1478_0/Section10OrderReceived

Allegiance passes first permitting hurdle, receipt of a Section 10 order. Itochu, their JV partner, will make an initial C$1.5 million payment for 5.3% of the Telkwa project.

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6819 on: November 13, 2018, 04:50:32 PM »
http://www.allegiancecoal.com.au/irm/PDF/1439_0/2018AnnualReport

The Allegiance annual report, dated June 30th, 2018 is crystal clear on the Altius royalty. It is a sliding scale 3% to 4.5% royalty:

“In addition to the above, Altius will receive a 3% gross sales royalty on coal sold where the benchmark coal price is less than US$100 per tonne; 3.5% where the benchmark coal price is US$100-US$109.99 per tonne; 4% where the benchmark coal price is US$110-US$119.99 per tonne; and 4.5% where the benchmark coal price is greater than US$120 per tonne.

“In December 2017, TCL entered into an agreement to acquire from Altius 100 percent ownership of all the rights to coal licences that make up the Telkwa Project (Acquisition). Up until the Acquisition, as set out above, TCL had earned 20 percent project ownership. In consideration for the issue to Altius of 40.6 million ordinary shares in the Company, with a deemed fair value of $1.2 million, and the continued performance of the milestone obligations (as set out in the table below), Altius agreed to transfer full ownership of the Telkwa Project to TCL. As security against the performance of the milestone obligations, TCL has provided a charge over the Telkwa Project. The charge shall be subordinated to Project debt finance.

Altius remains entitled to the royalty as described above.