Author Topic: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals  (Read 1744250 times)

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #580 on: April 04, 2012, 07:11:43 AM »
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-04-02/fortescue-s-power-says-china-steel-demand-very-strong


Fortescue is not far off it's 52 week high....they are 17%...owned by Chinese interests and no one is more wired to China than they are...

Dazel


Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #581 on: April 04, 2012, 07:17:22 AM »


Beer baron,


I am referring to the work that was done by Jeremy grantham...a link has been posted here before..the thread is getting a little long...it was not due to volatility in their analysis...

It was the probability of reversing the iron ore trend...2 million  to one chance of that...they used 100 years of data...
As we know GMO...does their homework.

Dazel.

Green King

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #582 on: April 04, 2012, 09:12:29 AM »
How did they get it ?
what methods did they use?
how do i know if they are right and how do i get a mental model of what they have done ?



Beer baron,


I am referring to the work that was done by Jeremy grantham...a link has been posted here before..the thread is getting a little long...it was not due to volatility in their analysis...

It was the probability of reversing the iron ore trend...2 million  to one chance of that...they used 100 years of data...
As we know GMO...does their homework.

Dazel.
GK

link01

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #583 on: April 04, 2012, 10:05:56 AM »


Beer baron,


I am referring to the work that was done by Jeremy grantham...a link has been posted here before..the thread is getting a little long...it was not due to volatility in their analysis...

It was the probability of reversing the iron ore trend...2 million  to one chance of that...they used 100 years of data...
As we know GMO...does their homework.

Dazel.



Beer baron,


I am referring to the work that was done by Jeremy grantham...a link has been posted here before..the thread is getting a little long...it was not due to volatility in their analysis...

It was the probability of reversing the iron ore trend...2 million  to one chance of that...they used 100 years of data...
As we know GMO...does their homework.

Dazel.

dazel, i own a some altius in an ira account (are they a PFIC for US investors?) because of your ongoing generous & compelling analysis of it on this board (& because its trading at just above book with a nice cash cusion, plus they seem to be thoughthful capital allocators who dont indiscrimately spray tons of share issuance for acqusisitions at every turn), but looking at at chart of iron ore prices for the past 10 yrs presents---for me, at least---argues for some caution:

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=180

despite what GMO opines iron ore prices look like they might have an air pocket underneath it if the tug of war between inflation & deflation goes the latters way. commodities in general have been a big beneficiary of the worldwide credit boom over the last decades. but then again, so have bonds because of the incrementally slower growth that each dollar of defcit spending has bought, & with it, the prospect of a deflationary slump when the music stops. at that point i'll be looking more aggressively for inflatioanry investing themes.

Liberty

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #584 on: April 04, 2012, 10:50:37 AM »
After reading some Nassim Taleb I'm now very suspicious of any predictions of "1 chance in 1 million" or whatever, but I do foresee that base metals will benefit from a large portion of the world developing. South-America, Asia, Africa.. Even the US economy going back to normal.

And if things don't go well for a while, well, Altius has no debt, lots of cash to deploy, and great capital allocators who own a good number of shares in charge. So I'm not worried. This is what reassures me, rather than quantitative predictions.
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #585 on: April 05, 2012, 06:41:40 AM »


Green king,


You do not and will not know if they are right...but their analysis is different from Taleb who is always pedi ting a black swan will appear....GMO called the market meltdown on fundamental analysis and think Fairfax got a lot of their information from GMO. I am not saying we could not have a pullback in iron ore quite frankly it would be beneficial to have a pull back.
Why?
Supply demand. GMO's thesis is that there demand will continue will continue to outstrip supply....why? Iron ore was under produced for so long because of it's low price....the opposite happens at these prices...more supply comes on...however, remember 2008? The were a ton (pardon the pun) of projects delayed and shelved during that period...you cannot just bring supply on it takes the better part of a decade to get mine going. If prices were to fall back it would actually help Altius because there iron ore properties are in an iron ore district...infrastructure is already there. That is why Thompson Consolidated were able to plug through 2008 and 2009....low cost is the key. Alderon would benefit from a drop in iron ore prices.

Dazel.

Liberty

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #586 on: April 05, 2012, 06:58:29 AM »

You do not and will not know if they are right...but their analysis is different from Taleb who is always pedi ting a black swan will appear....

I was more basing my comment on Fooled by Randomness than on The Black Swan. In it he makes a very good point that people assume that events follow a guassian distribution while in fact that's not the case. The math whizes believe that things are actually more predictable than they are. Hi prescription to survive and thrive in this umpredictable world (where we regularly see events that people once predicted were once-in-a-thousand years events..) is to have robust and resilient systems. I believe that Altius is one such robust and resilient company.
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #587 on: April 05, 2012, 07:03:42 AM »
Liberty,


Thanks for the remarks....

I am a value investor. We will leave the predicting to others...we buy a buck for 50 cents. That simple....the macro is not our game. The macro I provide is other people' s analysis...I spend very little time on it....just pass it on. Our best case scenario is that commodities get crushed on the same arguments we are talking about. Altius is in the drivers seat....they can pick bucks all over the place for 50 cents....they are investors...NOT MINERS.
That is why we own them...

http://www.google.com/finance?q=TSE%3ALIF.UN

Labrador iron ore royalty is an example of what is possible at Altius..the market has priced this in at a value of 0...after 9 years of developing their iron ore properties from scratch.


Most importantly our upside is Free....there inventory of assets are priced at close to zero.

Liberty

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #588 on: April 05, 2012, 07:58:54 AM »
I think we're pretty much on the same wavelength, Dazel. I too sometimes look at macro predictions, but I don't give them much weight. What matters to me is good management, good assets, good price, good downside protection.
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #589 on: April 09, 2012, 06:13:35 PM »
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2012/04/09/china-housing-bubble-is-over-says-jim-rogers/


More info on china...take it for what is worth but we are seeing iron ore tick up..and hold steady around $150...there is only one reason for that and it is china.

Dazel.