Author Topic: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals  (Read 1744211 times)

Liberty

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #820 on: September 25, 2012, 08:43:17 AM »
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Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #821 on: September 30, 2012, 06:27:31 AM »

ItsAValueTrap

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #822 on: September 30, 2012, 10:16:30 PM »
Dazel, I am curious.

#1- What's your opinion on all the analysts on being so incredibly bearish on iron ore prices in the long term?

Most analysts do this for gold too... which I find to be weird.  And then on the oil side, apparently analysts are very bullish.  I'm not sure if the mining analysts factor in higher production costs in the future... but together they are saying that iron ore prices will crash and production costs will go up.  And they are telling clients to buy!  What a bizarre world.

#2- Does Grandich being a shill bother you? 
Is this a value investing message board or a pump and dump message board?  :P
"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price. " -Buffett

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Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #823 on: October 01, 2012, 01:57:46 AM »

It's a value trap,

#1.  And #2.    We do our own work....I had no comment on the Dundee piece on Alderon....they are hardly bearish with a target price of $6...but the information posted is for people to make their own opinion...(grandich) we take newsletter writers and analysts with a grain of salt. We like facts to make our own decisions...unfortunately there is not a lot of information on companies like Altius or their assets so we are trying pass on information that's all.
In fairness a lot of the negativity in the industry has been related to short selling...Some of it warranted some of it not...either way it is hype....the investor has to be able to sort through the bullshit and make a decision for themselves. Compared to to he absolute travesty of analyst pushing the "Groupons of the world"....Morgan Stanley et all....the entire junior mining market would have been lost in the $8 billion market cap evaporated by the Groupon scam! Sorry you have me ranting.

Back to the point....
So in this case what is the Alderon assets worth and how much is the royalty worth to Altius. That is
all we care about. My next post is fact....a takeover offer rejected from steel producers...that is what we like...what are the assets worth to a business...not newsletter, analysts, hedge funds...Posco
owned by Warren Buffett has made the offer....that gives a barometer of what we think The Alderon
asset and subsequent Altius royalty is worth now and what it will be worth as a producer. Hope that helps.

Dazel.

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #824 on: October 01, 2012, 02:02:32 AM »
http://www.iol.co.za/business/companies/australia-s-arrium-rejects-1bn-bid-1.1393090#.UGlUHaN5mSM

Some takeover action in the steel market....we like to see that it is Posco (steel producer from Korea owned by Warren Buffett) doing the bidding with the Korean pension funds...operators are seeing some value in the iron ore industry.

Dazel.

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #825 on: October 10, 2012, 02:18:10 AM »
http://www.canadianinsider.com/node/7?ticker=ALS

Altius share count continues to fall.

Dazel

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #826 on: October 10, 2012, 02:22:48 AM »

FFHWatcher

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #827 on: October 10, 2012, 05:12:09 AM »
http://www.canadianinsider.com/node/7?ticker=ALS

Altius share count continues to fall.

Dazel

If these shares that they repurchase come through public markets (I assume), why aren't they showing up or matching up in daily volumes?  Perhaps they buy small amounts daily and then cancel them at the end of each month?  For example, that report shows the trade date as Sept 30th at 103,464 shares.  1/ Sept 30th was Sunday.  2/ 103,464 is more than the daily trading volume for everyday except for Aug. 28th. 

Perhaps they are issuing shares internally for options, etc. and then simply using cash to buy back the shares at market prices, although Sedi.ca does show them as Public Market transactions.  Altius is coding the transactions as "NCIB - returned to Treasury" which makes sense.

Either way, good news that share count is falling

jjsto

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #828 on: October 10, 2012, 05:31:38 AM »
If these shares that they repurchase come through public markets (I assume), why aren't they showing up or matching up in daily volumes?  Perhaps they buy small amounts daily and then cancel them at the end of each month?  For example, that report shows the trade date as Sept 30th at 103,464 shares.  1/ Sept 30th was Sunday.  2/ 103,464 is more than the daily trading volume for everyday except for Aug. 28th. 

Perhaps they are issuing shares internally for options, etc. and then simply using cash to buy back the shares at market prices, although Sedi.ca does show them as Public Market transactions.  Altius is coding the transactions as "NCIB - returned to Treasury" which makes sense.

Either way, good news that share count is falling

It seems what is happening is that Altius is reporting share redemption and shares acquired in the open market one time at the beginning of each month.  Those are most likely monthly totals under their repurchase plan.  There is generally a slightly different amount reported (103k/87k this month and 64k/69k last month) which might be related to purchase date/settlement date differences.  If there are +/- 20 business days in a month then 5k shares per day would be around 100k shares per month.  This fits with both the daily volume, and the price support at 10.  It seems like whenever the share price is below 11 they buy back close to their daily limit which I think (no link) is around 5k shares.   Like you said whatever the details, the important point is share count continues to fall. 

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #829 on: October 10, 2012, 10:40:09 AM »
http://altiusminerals.com/press-releases/view/259


Altius has an automatic purchase program so they are able to purchase shares while management is in possession of material information....

Brokers are only allowed to buy a certain percentage of daily volume and the shares repurchased are redeemed at months end....

Dazel.