Author Topic: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings  (Read 9289 times)

given2invest

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 596
Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #10 on: November 11, 2018, 08:19:50 AM »
This is the best part I think:

$665.1 million of adjusted EBITDA this year so far versus $534.3 million of adjusted EBITDA last year so far, that's an increase of $130.8 million. Can I repeat that figure for emphasis? AMC's adjusted EBITDA is running more than $130 million ahead of last year for the same nine month time period.

While the dude is giddy about getting Silver Lake onboard, I'd be nervous if I was Aaron. Those guys aren't dumb and I doubt he impresses them much.

Not to mention the EBITDA y/y isn't apples to apples as one of the acquisitions wasn't completed till march 2017.  Not to mention the box office is up huge y/y.  But the best part?

Pro forma, all these chains were doing WELL over $1B in EBITDA in 2016.  The 2018 box office will be > 2016 yet AMC is nowhere near 1B in EBITDA.  That's after spending 100s of millions in "growth" cap ex on refurbishments too. 

The math does not add up.  I've spent a ton of time on this name and once owned it.  Something just isn't right.  This subscription service just makes it even more confusing.


txvalue

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 69
Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #11 on: December 27, 2018, 12:37:20 PM »
I wonder when management will become buyers of the stock in size, or act with more urgency. The special dividend they issued could buy back a huge slug of the stock at these prices. Management recently was given stock awards for hitting "goals" - but when the stock tanks there is radio silence and no buying.  Most of us would be hustling to figure out a way to buy back debt on the cheap or execute a buyback if a company we managed plunged 50%.

Barron's had an article about subscription stocks with an AMC mention and a quote from Damodaran.  The article contended that if the stock can rerate to a reasonable multiple it has the potential to run to $40 and here we sit in the $11 range. I am buying here, but I would like for a group of investors to figure out a way to get a better management team implemented. The assets are great, but it needs leadership to improve. As their CEO always says "we don't bank bodies (ticket sales), we bank dollars" - I think investors are ready for this to become a reality.

johnny

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 422
Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #12 on: December 27, 2018, 02:40:05 PM »
I wonder when management will become buyers of the stock in size, or act with more urgency.

Dude, the guy thinks share dilution, being "outside EBITDA", is a non-factor for stock price. He's not going to do this until Silver Lake sends him polaroids of his children asleep in their rooms.

txvalue

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 69
Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #13 on: December 27, 2018, 03:02:30 PM »
I wonder when management will become buyers of the stock in size, or act with more urgency.

Dude, the guy thinks share dilution, being "outside EBITDA", is a non-factor for stock price. He's not going to do this until Silver Lake sends him polaroids of his children asleep in their rooms.

I totally agree that capital allocation is a foreign language to him - in that instance I meant buying it directly.

given2invest

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 596
Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #14 on: December 27, 2018, 05:08:37 PM »
Adam Aron is one of the worst CEOs in the history of the world.

johnny

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 422
Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #15 on: December 27, 2018, 07:10:37 PM »
I totally agree that capital allocation is a foreign language to him - in that instance I meant buying it directly.

Haha yes, that's much clearer now. Sorry, I'm just totally fixated on that call. Every time I see a movie I think about it.

5xEBITDA

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 68
Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #16 on: January 02, 2019, 06:34:05 AM »
This is the best part I think:

$665.1 million of adjusted EBITDA this year so far versus $534.3 million of adjusted EBITDA last year so far, that's an increase of $130.8 million. Can I repeat that figure for emphasis? AMC's adjusted EBITDA is running more than $130 million ahead of last year for the same nine month time period.

While the dude is giddy about getting Silver Lake onboard, I'd be nervous if I was Aaron. Those guys aren't dumb and I doubt he impresses them much.


Pro forma, all these chains were doing WELL over $1B in EBITDA in 2016.  The 2018 box office will be > 2016 yet AMC is nowhere near 1B in EBITDA.


Mind sharing your math?

txvalue

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 69
Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #17 on: March 01, 2019, 08:48:15 AM »
This is the best part I think:

$665.1 million of adjusted EBITDA this year so far versus $534.3 million of adjusted EBITDA last year so far, that's an increase of $130.8 million. Can I repeat that figure for emphasis? AMC's adjusted EBITDA is running more than $130 million ahead of last year for the same nine month time period.

While the dude is giddy about getting Silver Lake onboard, I'd be nervous if I was Aaron. Those guys aren't dumb and I doubt he impresses them much.

KAB60, I have read this comment many times over the past few months and I don't quite understand it or the follow up on EBITDA by given2invest.  I read a negative tone in your post (it may just have been my misunderstanding) while the EBITDA improvement seems positive for 2018? I understand some of the comments about management but was just confused on the EBITDA piece.

I am curious to know if given2invests comment was just a mistake and I would also be curious to see the math of well over $1B EBITDA in 2016. Thanks!

In 2016 EBITDA I have this from my notes:

AMC slightly above 600m.
Euro Acquisitions 120m.
Carmike 135m
Nordic was not included since they were purchased in 2017. I end up in the 850-875 range not well over 1 billion.  I may be missing something so I'd love clarification if my notes are incorrect.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2019, 08:58:58 AM by txvalue »

txvalue

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 69
Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #18 on: May 23, 2019, 10:55:27 AM »
The A-List subscription program now has 800k+ subs and is the largest movie subscription program in the country. The pace of additions has slowed to 1.2k per day but the company is estimating $3+ of EBITDA from each new user that signs up.  Average visits are now in the 2.6 range / month very close to their target number although some noise is to be expected in that figure depending on the months movie slate.

The program has been taking share from other theatres and no large chain has a competitve subscription offering to date. Food & Beverage has also been making progress.

Q1 was very weak but the rest of 2019 is setting up well. They have guided for CapEx to come down over the next few years as they start to delever.
 

given2invest

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 596
Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #19 on: May 23, 2019, 11:08:03 AM »
2020 box office gonna be a disaster compared to 2019.  Also there is no proof the subscription business is value add vs. pre subscription model.

And the CEO is one of the worst in the world.   

Hard pass.