Author Topic: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings  (Read 9296 times)

given2invest

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Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #40 on: June 26, 2019, 09:06:57 AM »
Every bull on VIC, here, and twitter, thinks AMC went from 15 to 9 on an accounting change causing quants to short/sell it.

This is the most ridiculous explanation of a stock decline I've heard in my entire career.


Foreign Tuffett

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Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #41 on: July 07, 2019, 06:43:21 PM »
Looks like Regal Cinemas will be introducing its own subscription service soon:

https://deadline.com/2019/07/regal-cinemas-unlimited-movie-ticket-subscription-program-cineworld-1202640441/


txvalue

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Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #42 on: July 08, 2019, 08:31:48 AM »
Vue International is putting itself up for sale with bids due in September. They are a reasonable size INTL player and the third largest UK chain.  They were also in on the Odeon bidding that AMC ended up winning in 2016.

Sky is reporting that Vue could fetch $2 billion. Vue is owned by pension funds and mgmt and they seem to have scrapped their IPO plans. They also report financials regularly so this process may help bring some clarity to market value for AMC's Odeon/UCI circuit in the UK and abroad.

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #43 on: July 28, 2019, 11:24:05 AM »
Looks like Regal Cinemas will be introducing its own subscription service soon:

https://deadline.com/2019/07/regal-cinemas-unlimited-movie-ticket-subscription-program-cineworld-1202640441/

Regal Unlimited plan pricing and terms suggests that, as I've argued here before, AMC A List is materially under priced.

https://www.regmovies.com/static/en/us/unlimited

txvalue

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Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #44 on: October 09, 2019, 08:50:41 AM »
Interested to see if someone like a Gabelli sticks their nose into the situation at these levels. They have a very small position at the moment. With such a high short interest and such a small float I think it would be a money making recipe. The top 50 holders plus Wanda account for basically the entire outstanding share count so it may just be that there aren't enough shares available for someone to build a worthwhile position.

Management clearly is not up to the task of supporting the stock.

txvalue

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Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #45 on: October 09, 2019, 09:57:41 AM »
FT Interested to get a little color on your comment about A-List pricing. Aside from the PLF inclusion in AMC's plans they seem very similar. (Keep in mind that PLF screens are still relatively rare at AMC on a % basis).  Another major difference is that Regal charges a small fee per booking due to a contract arrangement with a third party vendor, whereas AMC built out their tech and does not have to pay that fee.

Regal's plan is of course "unlimited" allowing a visit per day, where as AMC's has the weekly limit of 3 visits.

I don't disagree with your overall assessment that the AMC plan is a bit underpriced as it almost certainly took a small amount of frequent visitors and put them on a discounted flat rate plan, but I didn't understand what about Regals offering cemented your thoughts on the pricing.

From a competive landscape perspective Regal was trounced last quarter vs AMC and Cinemark.  Regal's Q2 attendance was down 18% y/y where CNK and AMC showed much more resilient performance. For those looking for a laggard in the industry I am puzzled why Regal isn't the obvous choice here.

Regal's operations were run very lean while under the old guard and their theaters were not renovated at the same clip as AMC's and I think you are seeing the Cineworld management team realize they were snookered a bit by Anschutz.

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #46 on: October 09, 2019, 10:36:43 AM »
FT Interested to get a little color on your comment about A-List pricing. Aside from the PLF inclusion in AMC's plans they seem very similar. (Keep in mind that PLF screens are still relatively rare at AMC on a % basis).  Another major difference is that Regal charges a small fee per booking due to a contract arrangement with a third party vendor, whereas AMC built out their tech and does not have to pay that fee.

Regal's plan is of course "unlimited" allowing a visit per day, where as AMC's has the weekly limit of 3 visits.

I don't disagree with your overall assessment that the AMC plan is a bit underpriced as it almost certainly took a small amount of frequent visitors and put them on a discounted flat rate plan, but I didn't understand what about Regals offering cemented your thoughts on the pricing.

From a competive landscape perspective Regal was trounced last quarter vs AMC and Cinemark.  Regal's Q2 attendance was down 18% y/y where CNK and AMC showed much more resilient performance. For those looking for a laggard in the industry I am puzzled why Regal isn't the obvous choice here.

Regal's operations were run very lean while under the old guard and their theaters were not renovated at the same clip as AMC's and I think you are seeing the Cineworld management team realize they were snookered a bit by Anschutz.

AMC A List is superior value proposition largely because you can see premium format movies (including IMAX) without paying a surcharge. Also, you can go to any AMC theatre, not just select theatres like in Regal Unlimited's base plan.

A List's 3 movies a week limitation is almost irrelevant since the % of moviegoers who want to watch over 3 movies @ theatre a week on any sort of regular basis is almost certainly very small.

Overall, I think AMC A List is materially superior. The fact that Regal can't/won't match AMC's offer suggests that A List may be underpriced.


txvalue

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Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #47 on: October 10, 2019, 09:41:15 AM »
Appreciate your thoughts.

As you know, Regal has tiered pricing just like AMC's so while packaged differently I don't know that the end result is that different.

Regal Unlimited - $18 (200 Theaters)
Regal Unlimited Plus - $21 (400 Theaters)
Regaul Ulimited All Access - $23 (All US Theaters)
+ Surcharges for tickets due to third party vendor
+ Surcharges for PLF that range in price

AMC A-list - $19.95
AMC A-list - $21.95 (all states but CA, CT, MA, NJ, NY)
AMC A-list - $23.95 (all states)

I agree that AMC has the superior offering, but with out knowing PLF attendance on both plans and if any different back room deals were cut with Dolby and IMAX to help drive attendance I think it may be premature to suggest it is "materially underpriced" vs Regal. As an example Dolby is AMC exclusive so its not quite apples to apples.  If you say it "may be underpriced" I can see that.  The decision making process for most folks, if you monitor things seems to boil down to which theater near them has better amenities.   

I continue to maintain that if you are looking for an exhibitor stock with downside risk at today's prices it's Cineworld.

On another note the Joker has now set all time records for an October opening weekend, and October Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Of note the 13.9 million Tuesday record handily beat the previous 8.2 million record. It is not an industry with out challenges, but I think exhibitors defensive properties are being overlooked here and the stock is paying you 8% per year at these prices.

https://deadline.com/2019/10/joker-october-tuesday-box-office-record-weekend-forecast-addams-family-will-smith-gemini-man-1202756065/
« Last Edit: October 10, 2019, 09:44:05 AM by txvalue »

txvalue

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Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #48 on: October 14, 2019, 08:25:42 AM »
This month Kinepolis closed an acquisition of MJR (10 locations in Michigan providing $81m rev.) for $152.5m - 7 of the 10 sites were owned by MJR rather than leased.

Marcus bought Movie Tavern from VSS for 126m when announced (30m cash plus stock) for 22 locations and 208 screens in early 2019 and others like Cinepolis have made purchases to get toeholds in the US domestic market.

With Craig Ramsey suddenly retiring and a new CFO coming onboard I would really like them to be more assertive about wringing out value from their assets. I'd be interested to see a small asset sale of domestic theatres in an area they are not focused on - they could then use that cash to tender for shares.

This deal would:

- show the value of the assets
- remove lease obligations, which would result in a debt decrease on the balance sheet
- put pressure on the shorts
- save millions in annual dividend payments
- retire around 8-10% of outstanding shares

It would also likely have a minimal impact on earnings if they sold 15-20 of their 1000 sites.

I get that they need cash to hunker down for 2020 headwinds but the shorts have no fear of managment thinking outside the box to show value especially with the Euro IPO seemingly always in limbo.  With a market cap under a billion a deal like this seems like a winner to me.

Curious what others would do in this situation as a thought exercise, how would a capable management team take advantage of this market action?
« Last Edit: October 14, 2019, 08:28:06 AM by txvalue »