Author Topic: TFI.TO - Transforce  (Read 3321 times)

LanceSanity

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TFI.TO - Transforce
« on: February 13, 2016, 10:15:25 PM »
Transforce is a fairly basic business compared to other ideas posted here - transportation and logistics.  Of the ~C$300M FCF they expect this year, ~C$280M may be returned to shareholders- $C220M via share repurchase and $60M via dividends.  Not the best value out there at 6x EBITDA, but I like the company's focus on shareholder value.  The CEO's responses in earnings calls really impress me.  Latest: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3893376-transforces-tfiff-ceo-alain-bedard-q4-2015-results-earnings-conference-call?part=single

Has anyone else followed Transforce?


longlake95

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Re: TFI.TO - Transforce
« Reply #1 on: April 20, 2016, 11:38:51 AM »
Ya, I've been following TFI for a while. I agree, it's not dirt cheap, especially after the 10% run, but I think it's a $0.70 dollar that's growing and worth owning. Q1 report today, weakish on lower TL and LTL revenue, but the bright spot continues to be the P&C - thanks amazon effect. In a nut shell I like:
- commitment to meaningful buy backs at lower prices (Bedard recently bought some TFI in open market personally as well)
- commitment to growing dividends
- continued focus on costs (selling terminals and consolidating ops from various banners - ICS & Canpar)
- selling non-core assets
- slowing down acquisition pace
- exposure to U.S. thru P&C

I recently had a discussion with a family member (by marriage) who owns a medium sized trucking & logistics company in Canada, headquartered in the GTA. He knows Bedard and thinks Bedard is "smart" and the right guy to run TFI. He acknowledged that TFI has been slow to capture the synergies from the many carriers they have bought over the past few years. TFI's OR is 92.6% or so, right in the industry average wheel house (potential to move lower). Also, there are risks when you buyout a smaller carrier - your relationship can change with the customer, not always for the better. But he thinks Bedard can manage -but he has a lot of balls in the air to juggle. These are integration risks that any acquirer must deal with. My contact did mention that since TFI has huge market share in Canada (30%or so), he has significant pricing power - and earnings could power significantly higher should the economy perk-up. My contact wants Bedard to raise prices, so he can follow.

My contact characterizes the market as weakish but steady. Some carriers are doing well other not so well. He hasn't seen an inflection point in tonnage yet indicating that the economy has turned the corner.

I think TFI is worth $31 or so, and maybe $33 a couple of years out. On the downside, TFI is committed to de-levering and moving to a more flexible asset-light model. That's good for when the next recession comes along.

I don't own it....yet...

LL

MarkS

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Re: TFI.TO - Transforce
« Reply #2 on: February 12, 2017, 02:29:39 PM »
If anyone is following this company, attached is an SP Capital IQ report that's recent.  There's not much available information on the company here in the US.

Thanks
Mark

longlake95

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Re: TFI.TO - Transforce
« Reply #3 on: April 26, 2017, 05:03:58 PM »
Started a position in TFII today on the market's weak reaction to the Q1 results. I've recently updated my file on TFII, figuring it's now worth $40-$42, on the the acquisition of XPO's trailer load business and continued growth in P&C division. Also, the XPO transaction makes TFII's U.S. business big enough ( I think ) to take it public and unlock some value. What U.S. fund manager has heard of TFI International? If they spin off the U.S. TL business that might change. There is now some attention on the space with the Schnieider IPO and the Knight/Swift merger.

The CEO, Alain Bedard is the Henry Singleton of trucking.

« Last Edit: April 26, 2017, 05:14:32 PM by longlake95 »

longlake95

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Re: TFI.TO - Transforce
« Reply #4 on: February 21, 2018, 01:30:03 PM »
http://tfiintl.com/en/press-releases/tfi-international-announces-2017-fourth-quarter-full-year-results/

Pretty good results. US TL business is improving. Contract rates moving higher. Bedard says US economy is "really, really good". They generated $376M in FCF, bought in 2% of the float. I'm not sure if I heard Bedard properly on the CC, but he mentioned they are doing some last mile P&C business with WMT for their e-commerce biz.

Expects $600M in EBITDA in 2018.

Still cheapish.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2018, 01:50:53 PM by longlake95 »

longlake95

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Re: TFI.TO - Transforce
« Reply #5 on: April 26, 2018, 07:52:50 AM »
Q1FY18

TFI continues to improve. Canadian operating ratio (OR) continues to move lower to 90.6% down 400BPS. US TL OR moved down 430BPS. Pricing moving higher by 2-4% in Canada and up 6-7% in US. Still weakness in brick and motor retail, but there are some green shoots there, as some brick and mortar retailers pursue E-tailing strategies. TFI makes up for that weakness with strength in their package and courier business. TFI continues to buy back stock and pay down debt.

Bedard is very rational. Not flooding the market with capacity. Turns away low margin/quality business.

The only problem is....if you don't own it...it's not cheap anymore. Still think it's worth $41ish.

LL

longlake95

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Re: TFI.TO - Transforce
« Reply #6 on: May 22, 2018, 10:18:46 AM »
I got a recent update on Canadian trucking from my relative-in-law, who owns a medium size trucking firm in the GTA. He is seeing capacity tightening significantly. Drivers, ELDs, improving economy, lack of availability of Class 8 trucks and rational players all contributing to higher contract and spot pricing. He recently renewed a contract with a large retailer and raised their prices by 25%. The firm in question looked at him like he had " 3 heads". His response: " go to the market then...". They signed with him...

He just bought another 100 containers for intermodal. The guy he bought the containers from just sold 25,000 containers to a U.S. trucker. Pricing is moving so fast, he expects it to be significant enough to cause inflation. He has put some personal money in the Canadian rails and a U.S. trucker.

You gotta own some transports...
« Last Edit: May 22, 2018, 10:22:24 AM by longlake95 »

Cigarbutt

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Re: TFI.TO - Transforce
« Reply #7 on: Today at 06:12:16 AM »
I got a recent update on Canadian trucking from my relative-in-law, who owns a medium size trucking firm in the GTA. He is seeing capacity tightening significantly. Drivers, ELDs, improving economy, lack of availability of Class 8 trucks and rational players all contributing to higher contract and spot pricing. He recently renewed a contract with a large retailer and raised their prices by 25%. The firm in question looked at him like he had " 3 heads". His response: " go to the market then...". They signed with him...

He just bought another 100 containers for intermodal. The guy he bought the containers from just sold 25,000 containers to a U.S. trucker. Pricing is moving so fast, he expects it to be significant enough to cause inflation. He has put some personal money in the Canadian rails and a U.S. trucker.

You gotta own some transports...

Many report similar "signals" on the freight side.
See April report:
https://www.cassinfo.com/transportation-expense-management/supply-chain-analysis/cass-freight-index.aspx
"This level of percentage increase is usually only attained when emerging from a recession, not when comping against already strong statistics."
We see pricing power at work.

longlake95

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Re: TFI.TO - Transforce
« Reply #8 on: Today at 11:10:26 AM »
yes, my contact is itching for TransForce to raise prices even more, so he can follow. I expect good results from TFII and the group for the next couple of Q's.