Author Topic: AMZN - Amazon.com Inc.  (Read 579860 times)

fareastwarriors

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Re: AMZN - Amazon.com Inc.
« Reply #2210 on: November 13, 2018, 07:41:27 PM »
Citi will move 1,100 workers earlier than planned to make way for Amazon in NYC

Citi has been consolidating its New York area staff anyway, moving workers to its headquarters in glitzy Tribeca and other locations.

The tower at One Court Square, bearing Citi's name on the top, opened nearly 30 years ago and has been home to various Citi units.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/13/citi-will-move-workers-earlier-than-planned-to-make-way-for-amazon-nyc.html


so generous of citi...


Liberty

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"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | The importance of saying 'oops'

rkbabang

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Re: AMZN - Amazon.com Inc.
« Reply #2212 on: December 06, 2018, 08:38:24 AM »
"24 Amazon Workers Hospitalized After Robot Punctures Bear Spray In Warehouse
One worker was in critical condition and 30 more were sickened and treated on the scene after a robot-related accident."
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/qvqe85/24-amazon-workers-hospitalized-after-robot-punctures-bear-spray-in-warehouse

Jurgis

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Re: AMZN - Amazon.com Inc.
« Reply #2213 on: December 20, 2018, 03:05:45 PM »
https://www.theverge.com/2018/12/19/18140799/amazon-marketplace-scams-seller-court-appeal-reinstatement

As a comment I'm just gonna post my favorite quote-of-the-day from FB thread:

People hate facebook, but I think ultimately people hate people.
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo
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Shooter MacGavin

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Re: AMZN - Amazon.com Inc.
« Reply #2214 on: December 27, 2018, 08:30:25 AM »
Does anyone that knows this story well believe the stock is on sale these days around $1450?  If so, what's your rough estimate of the normalized PE multiple? By my rough math, they would earn $50-$60 per share roughly if they stopped investing (very rough).  Thank you.

walkie518

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Re: AMZN - Amazon.com Inc.
« Reply #2215 on: December 27, 2018, 11:25:05 AM »
Does anyone that knows this story well believe the stock is on sale these days around $1450?  If so, what's your rough estimate of the normalized PE multiple? By my rough math, they would earn $50-$60 per share roughly if they stopped investing (very rough).  Thank you.
The problem with any conglomerate is you need to look at each division separately, and of course, every conglomerate trades at a discount to its underlying value

If AWS were independent from Amazon, it's not hard to mark that business at a $1tr valuation since every cloud business that is traded is dwarfed by AWS (or runs on AWS).  Sure, Microsoft is trying to catch up and there is plenty of room, but AWS had prima facie advantage and isn't giving it up.

From another angle, when finding the underlying value for retail, coming up with an idea for the gross sales could be very helpful to understanding how Amazon's model differs from Walmart, for example, since Amazon reports net sales (gross retail sales plus net marketplace sales).  Since online sales are growing at a rate that is 4x US retail, one needs to bake this into those figures as well.  Online sales cannibalize brick-and-mortar, but consumers are only going to spend so much in total.  The growth runway there, for example, is less than in advertising.

The DCF will need to make assumptions about the future.  I would track each piece out 5 years, come up with sum of the parts, then discount 15% to come up with value.  Not sure present value models work when sales grow over 20%? 

Shooter MacGavin

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Re: AMZN - Amazon.com Inc.
« Reply #2216 on: December 27, 2018, 11:44:37 AM »
Does anyone that knows this story well believe the stock is on sale these days around $1450?  If so, what's your rough estimate of the normalized PE multiple? By my rough math, they would earn $50-$60 per share roughly if they stopped investing (very rough).  Thank you.
The problem with any conglomerate is you need to look at each division separately, and of course, every conglomerate trades at a discount to its underlying value

If AWS were independent from Amazon, it's not hard to mark that business at a $1tr valuation since every cloud business that is traded is dwarfed by AWS (or runs on AWS).  Sure, Microsoft is trying to catch up and there is plenty of room, but AWS had prima facie advantage and isn't giving it up.

From another angle, when finding the underlying value for retail, coming up with an idea for the gross sales could be very helpful to understanding how Amazon's model differs from Walmart, for example, since Amazon reports net sales (gross retail sales plus net marketplace sales).  Since online sales are growing at a rate that is 4x US retail, one needs to bake this into those figures as well.  Online sales cannibalize brick-and-mortar, but consumers are only going to spend so much in total.  The growth runway there, for example, is less than in advertising.

The DCF will need to make assumptions about the future.  I would track each piece out 5 years, come up with sum of the parts, then discount 15% to come up with value.  Not sure present value models work when sales grow over 20%?

Sure.  That is a valid way to look at Amazon and I don't disagree. That is a Sum of parts exercise that we're all familiar with and a method to value Amazon.

I was merely asking what people assumed a run-rate earnings multiple, ex growth investments, was today.  Every public company that is profitable trades at some earnings multiple, conglomerate or not.   I guess asked differently, what do people think their economic earnings are, ex investments?

cherzeca

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Re: AMZN - Amazon.com Inc.
« Reply #2217 on: January 07, 2019, 09:59:05 AM »
@shooter. I just don't look at amazon like a normal investment.  it has optionality like no other business in the world.  amazon could touch all of its customers in ways we haven't considered, becoming a nonbank finance company, an advertising behemoth etc.

there is no way Bezos is going to hunker down and run company without massive future investment in businesses not engaged in today that relate to its massive (and appreciative) customer base.  those investments are likely going to provide value to its customers and hence the company.

so I buy amazon when on sale (not often!) and hold.  KISS. 


bookie71

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Re: AMZN - Amazon.com Inc.
« Reply #2218 on: January 07, 2019, 01:06:12 PM »
Is Amazon loosing it's edge?  On my last two orders, it took over 14 days for them to be filled, even after paying for one day shipping on one and two day shipping on the other.  They did refund the shipping, BUT only after I squaked.
I have started ordering from their competitor and it is cheaper and shipping is free for normal and about 1/2 (of Amazons ) for one day
Always remember, Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered.

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: AMZN - Amazon.com Inc.
« Reply #2219 on: January 09, 2019, 06:25:04 AM »
Jeff and MacKenzie Bezos are divorcing.

https://twitter.com/JeffBezos/status/1083004911380393985