Author Topic: BA - Boeing  (Read 4461 times)

KFRCanuk

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Re: BA - Boeing
« Reply #20 on: March 13, 2019, 12:50:00 PM »
US orders all 737 Max 8,9s parked.

wabuffo
24 planes w/AAL... say that's 48 flights per day and each flight has 200 passengers paying $250/ride that's $876m of lost revenues over the course of the year

Southwest would lose $1.24B of revenues using the same metrics

maybe this mess lasts a quarter at worst?

Two flights per day per plane seems low. In the US I would expect 6 to 8 flights. Canada 2 to 5.


walkie518

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Re: BA - Boeing
« Reply #21 on: March 13, 2019, 05:34:28 PM »
US orders all 737 Max 8,9s parked.

wabuffo
24 planes w/AAL... say that's 48 flights per day and each flight has 200 passengers paying $250/ride that's $876m of lost revenues over the course of the year

Southwest would lose $1.24B of revenues using the same metrics

maybe this mess lasts a quarter at worst?

Two flights per day per plane seems low. In the US I would expect 6 to 8 flights. Canada 2 to 5.

ok, triple the number then divide by 4 and that's a better number...

doc75

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Re: BA - Boeing
« Reply #22 on: March 13, 2019, 05:44:25 PM »
US orders all 737 Max 8,9s parked.

wabuffo
24 planes w/AAL... say that's 48 flights per day and each flight has 200 passengers paying $250/ride that's $876m of lost revenues over the course of the year

Southwest would lose $1.24B of revenues using the same metrics

maybe this mess lasts a quarter at worst?

Two flights per day per plane seems low. In the US I would expect 6 to 8 flights. Canada 2 to 5.

ok, triple the number then divide by 4 and that's a better number...

FWIW: Air Canada has 24 Max 8's and reportedly handle 9000 to 12000 passengers per day (quote from an AC spokesman in an article I read earlier today).   

augustabound

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Re: BA - Boeing
« Reply #23 on: March 13, 2019, 06:21:22 PM »
To me this whole situation is way overblown.

- We have people with no engineering credentials saying to ground the planes (Mitt Romney)

FWIW, our Minister of Transportation in Canada is a former NASA astronaut.
"Serenity now, insanity later." - Lloyd Braun

walkie518

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Re: BA - Boeing
« Reply #24 on: March 14, 2019, 07:54:26 AM »
US orders all 737 Max 8,9s parked.

wabuffo
24 planes w/AAL... say that's 48 flights per day and each flight has 200 passengers paying $250/ride that's $876m of lost revenues over the course of the year

Southwest would lose $1.24B of revenues using the same metrics

maybe this mess lasts a quarter at worst?

Two flights per day per plane seems low. In the US I would expect 6 to 8 flights. Canada 2 to 5.

ok, triple the number then divide by 4 and that's a better number...

FWIW: Air Canada has 24 Max 8's and reportedly handle 9000 to 12000 passengers per day (quote from an AC spokesman in an article I read earlier today).

that verifies the 2 KFR noted

less certain about US figures then? 

Spekulatius

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Re: BA - Boeing
« Reply #25 on: March 14, 2019, 04:55:35 PM »
Anyone went through BA‘s 10-k with a fine comb? Interesting read - their accounts payable exceed their receivables by far and advanced billings finance their 80% of their inventory. (60% of the annual revenue. $120B in purchase obligation (probably long term supply contracts. if a major program blows up, the CFO‘s job could become very interesting quickly, it seems.

Looks like they can float their inventory through offloading the balance sheet to their suppliers and getting advances from their customers, which means they generate more cash flow when they ramp up. The reverse should be true when business slows down.

Then they use „program accounting“ as I learned from another forum, probably to smooth out earnings. All this you can buy for 22x earnings. Interesting.

Maybe I am über sceptical as they sure have done this for quite some time.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2019, 04:57:36 PM by Spekulatius »
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Gamecock-YT

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Re: BA - Boeing
« Reply #26 on: March 17, 2019, 11:07:39 AM »
Flawed analysis, failed oversight: How Boeing and FAA certified the suspect 737 MAX flight control system

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/failed-certification-faa-missed-safety-issues-in-the-737-max-system-implicated-in-the-lion-air-crash/


Quote
Both Boeing and the FAA were informed of the specifics of this story and were asked for responses 11 days ago, before the second crash of a 737 MAX last Sunday.

Liberty

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cherzeca

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Re: BA - Boeing
« Reply #28 on: March 19, 2019, 04:13:59 PM »
isn't Boeing=J&J Tylenol?  wait it out, then assess whether discount justifies buying?

Spekulatius

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Re: BA - Boeing
« Reply #29 on: March 19, 2019, 06:24:05 PM »
isn't Boeing=J&J Tylenol?  wait it out, then assess whether discount justifies buying?

Except that BA is expensive to begin with (still trades around 20x earnings) and the potential downside scenario that’s more than a slap on the hand is nowhere priced in. If it were going for 12x earnings,  I would be all over it, but for 20x, I gladly watch this from the sidelines.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.