Author Topic: BAYRY - Bayer AG  (Read 9389 times)

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: BAYRY - Bayer AG
« Reply #20 on: May 17, 2019, 05:03:05 PM »
There is no evidence it is carcinogenic.

There is one organization IARC that has ranked glyphosate as a probable carcinogenic. That's the same category it ranked red meat.

Here are the top 15 largest class action settlements in U.S. history:

https://www.gjel.com/blog/largest-class-action-settlements.html

I agree that the evidence that glyphosate, in any reasonable use case, is carcinogenic is weak. This is a product that has been on the market since 1974, is extensively studied, and is widely used. If it is a potent carcinogen why hasn't anyone been able to parse this out of the epidemiological data?

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27677668

The recent WSJ editorial "Roundup of Cancer Evidence" is definitely worth a read.

This is mostly in jest, but let us not forget that it was a California jury that found OJ not guilty of murder. He was guilty as hell!

More seriously, is there evidence that Monsanto has behaved negligently and/or hidden evidence that glyphosate is dangerous?


Cigarbutt

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Re: BAYRY - Bayer AG
« Reply #21 on: May 17, 2019, 05:58:54 PM »
The problem is that there is sufficient data to be twisted to reach the conclusion that you are looking for.
The product is so ubiquitous that it has made it into wines, beers and even various organic foods.

Here is a study published in 2019 that, on the surface, shows a significant increase in relative risk. The authors may very well end up as experts on the demand side. However, the basic weakness in the review of reviews is that it does not put an approriate weight on the quality of the evidence. Otherwise the odds ratios would likely have been insignificant.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1383574218300887

Here's a relevant 3rd party analysis of that publication (There may be a link with Monsanto):
https://geneticliteracyproject.org/2019/02/18/41-glyphosate-cancer-increase-claim-under-fire-did-the-authors-of-new-meta-study-deliberately-manipulate-data-or-just-botch-their-analysis/

In terms of corporate behavior, IMO internal documents have shown and will continue to show that Monsanto confused business goals with consumer safety but that aspect, in itself, is not sufficient to result, in the end, in large payouts:
https://www.baumhedlundlaw.com/toxic-tort-law/monsanto-roundup-lawsuit/monsanto-secret-documents/

Disclosure: Bayer is on a watchlist
« Last Edit: May 17, 2019, 06:01:35 PM by Cigarbutt »

Spekulatius

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Re: BAYRY - Bayer AG
« Reply #22 on: May 17, 2019, 09:29:57 PM »
I calculate this as being valued at 7.7x EBITDA, and it’s probably worth at least 9.5x EBITDA. This means that a fine of ~20B Euro ($22.4B) is build in the current valuation.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

Haasje

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Re: BAYRY - Bayer AG
« Reply #23 on: May 18, 2019, 03:32:10 PM »
I think it ultimately won't amount to $20b. Also the fees will be paid in the far future if you calculate it like that you should probaby discount and the implied fine at this perceived gap is even higher.

HalfMeasure

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Re: BAYRY - Bayer AG
« Reply #24 on: May 18, 2019, 09:56:10 PM »
I think it ultimately won't amount to $20b. Also the fees will be paid in the far future if you calculate it like that you should probaby discount and the implied fine at this perceived gap is even higher.

Won't it also be lower after tax? i.e. $x * (1 - t)

Spekulatius

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Re: BAYRY - Bayer AG
« Reply #25 on: May 19, 2019, 07:01:50 AM »
I think it ultimately won't amount to $20b. Also the fees will be paid in the far future if you calculate it like that you should probaby discount and the implied fine at this perceived gap is even higher.

Won't it also be lower after tax? i.e. $x * (1 - t)

And add back a couple billion of legal fees. Also, the US is not the only place where lawsuits will occur, also I think the bulk of the legal liability potential is here.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: BAYRY - Bayer AG
« Reply #26 on: June 27, 2019, 07:45:29 AM »
Ken Feinberg is now involved as a mediator capacity. He is by far the most prominent person in the US doing this type of work, to the extent that he almost has a monopoly on the most high profile cases. I view his appointment as a negative as his involvement usually precedes the company in question (BP, GM, VW are examples from the past decade) disbursing huge amounts of money. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bayer-glyphosate-lawsuit/u-s-judge-appoints-ken-feinberg-mediator-for-bayer-roundup-settlement-talks-idUSKCN1SS2CH

Bayer has released the below statement

https://www.investor.bayer.com/en/nc/news/investor-news/investor-news/bayer-supervisory-board-takes-action-to-address-the-glyphosate-litigation-and-welcomes-the-appointme/


UK

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UK

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Re: BAYRY - Bayer AG
« Reply #28 on: August 21, 2019, 01:10:05 PM »
https://www.wsj.com/articles/time-to-buy-back-bayer-11566385729

"This month, judges in St. Louis delayed two imminent Roundup cases, a move that hinted at progress in talks between the company and plaintiffs. Bayer wants a settlement of between $6 billion and $8 billion while plaintiffs want more than $10 billion, according to a Bloomberg report, though a key mediator denied any discussion of numbers."

"Whatever the eventual settlement, it will likely be far lower than $30 billion. At the end of June there were 18,400 claimants. In cancer suits against DuPont , Takeda and Pfizer since 2012, claimants have ended up with awards of between roughly $170,000 and $270,000 each, suggesting a total cost to Bayer of between roughly $3 billion and $5 billion. The claimant count will no doubt grow, but investors need very aggressive assumptions indeed to get above a cost estimate of even $15 billion."

"There are other signs that Bayer stock has fallen too far. It trades on nine times expected earnings, compared with 21 times for Corteva Agriscience , the seed-and-pesticide maker spun out of DowDuPont this year, and 14 times for big U.S. pharma stocks. The deal Bayer announced Tuesday to sell its animal-health unit for $7.6 billion—at a much higher multiple of earnings than the wider company itself fetches—only makes its valuation look cheaper"

glorysk87

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Re: BAYRY - Bayer AG
« Reply #29 on: August 21, 2019, 06:18:37 PM »
Mind posting the full article?