Author Topic: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals  (Read 1405074 times)

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6360 on: August 16, 2018, 08:40:15 AM »
https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/midland-starts-a-first-trenching-program-on-its-base-metals-projects-with-altius-and-amended-the-20180816-00438

Midland starts trenching and soil sampling programs at Shire and Moria base metals projects. Altius funding half the expenses and holds a 1% royalty.

Midland and Altius amend the exploration MOU. Altius gets C$500K worth of Midland shares, and also participates in a small Midland private placement to fund its portion of 2018 exploration alliance expenses.

Midland now owns 100% of the 7 Altius alliance projects and can more easily market them to potential joint venture partners.

Once the two newest projects, Lothlorien and Fangorn, are designated Altius will have 1% royalties on 9 projects in the Midland Alliance. The cost of generating those royalties: C$500K in Midland shares.

If they can eventually sell those shares for a profit the effective cost of generating those royalties will be zero or negative cost.


linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6361 on: August 17, 2018, 07:35:56 AM »
LIF trading today at C$25. Altius’s cost basis is around $16 a share. So Altius is sitting on unrealized capital gains of 56%.

The realized gains are the LIF dividends: C$10.9 million since the first tranche of LIF was acquired in Spring 2015.

The dividends alone have paid back 21.8% of the original investment.

Altius is a shrewder and more patient allocator of capital than Julian Treger at Anglo-Pacific (who bought LIF at a much higher price) and Sean Roosen at Osisko Gold Royalties (who sold their 10% LIF position right before the run of special dividends in 2017).

Unlike many of you I don’t want the Altius potash royalties paid as dividends directly to shareholders (or similar screwball passive investment scheme). I want continued patient and shrewd capital allocation.

mikek

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6362 on: August 17, 2018, 02:23:22 PM »
Who cares, these guys should never ever mention again that they feel their shares are too cheap if they aren't going to buy back shares.  All I see from this stock is continued underperformance.  Even with copper and zinc going down the annual revenue isn't going to move that much yet I would guess these guys aren't even buying back shares.  It shows they really don't believe what they have been saying.  Management has been a huge disappointment to me unfortunately.  Not sure how shareholders are ever going to get any value out of this.  Fact is, opportunity costs matter and this stock unfortunately has been a disaster for quite awhile.  You can't eat 1 percent dividends.  Even if "actual performance" has been fine the fact is we all don't have infinite timeframes and the fact is we could have thrown darts randomly and done a lot better than this.

« Last Edit: August 17, 2018, 02:31:00 PM by mikek »

petec

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6363 on: August 17, 2018, 02:47:12 PM »
Actually, not buying back shares and reinvesting internally is a sign they *do* believe in what they do. They can believe the shares are undervalued and still believe the best use of capital is internal reinvestment - the two are not mutually exclusive if the reinvestment has a high enough roic.

And the fact the shares haven’t risen might have more to do with the commodity cycle than management.

Still, good luck with those darts.

mikek

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6364 on: August 17, 2018, 03:07:20 PM »
Petec, you are new to the company so to be honest your viewpoint is going to be a lot different compared to mine.  I have been in this stock for a bit, haven't really lost much but it has been dead money for quite awhile.  I know the company well, management, and the assets pretty well.  There is definitely going to be a totally different viewpoint between someone that has been around a long time compared to someone that just bought.  I'm not saying you aren't going to do well with the stock, I'm saying I have been around long enough to know this company, management and the assets well enough to comment on the company.  The fact is there is definitely going to be some resentment built up from current shareholders compared to people that are brand new to the company.  That is just the way it works.  When you have heard the company say for years that they believe X and actions haven't lined up I'm going to say something.  They were recently saying they felt shares at $16 Canadian would be low, if you truly believe all your recent deals over the last 2-3 years have been good you should be buying back shares.  I would also guess that most shareholders that have been in this company at least 3-5 years would agree with that statement.  They have 60 million cash with 16-18 million coming in each quarter, you have funds to be buying back more of your royalties that you felt were good deals. 
« Last Edit: August 17, 2018, 05:58:10 PM by mikek »

Gregmal

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6365 on: August 17, 2018, 03:20:08 PM »
Who cares, these guys should never ever mention again that they feel their shares are too cheap if they aren't going to buy back shares.  All I see from this stock is continued underperformance.  Even with copper and zinc going down the annual revenue isn't going to move that much yet I would guess these guys aren't even buying back shares.  It shows they really don't believe what they have been saying.  Management has been a huge disappointment to me unfortunately.  Not sure how shareholders are ever going to get any value out of this.  Fact is, opportunity costs matter and this stock unfortunately has been a disaster for quite awhile.  You can't eat 1 percent dividends.  Even if "actual performance" has been fine the fact is we all don't have infinite timeframes and the fact is we could have thrown darts randomly and done a lot better than this.

This is true for a lot of companies. Unfortunately management interests carry massive dividends in the form of salary and if there are time vested stock options/grants, they get paid to drag things out and lower your ROI. I have spent the past several years watching one of my best "on paper" investments underperform greatly because management rather invest in retail and office properties at 5-6% cap rates than repurchase stock at 30-50% below the conservative estimates of NAV. When they do buyback stock it's negligible amounts never exceeding maybe 2-2.5% of shares outstanding(on an annualized basis!) and then they trumpet how aggressive the buyback program is. Bottom line, with most management teams, they get paid to tell stories and make you wait.

hohi

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6366 on: August 17, 2018, 10:39:37 PM »
I would also guess that most shareholders that have been in this company at least 3-5 years would agree with that statement.

I oftentimes feel the frustration too, mikek. Out of my resources bets, ALS has been the worst performing by a wide margin (examples being Ivanhoe where I cashed out over 400% in profits or Norislk where they paid me 50% of the investment back in dividends in some short years; still both great (and undervalued) companies btw!). But yet I disagree with the conclusions you draw. ALS has been making steady progress and good deals. Then they had bad luck with the coal royalties. But the value creation here will come (seemingly) over night in an absolutely asymmetrical form I believe. It is the cyclicity of resource markets and it is the inability to define (or even see) the optionality value inherent in ALS.
« Last Edit: August 17, 2018, 10:41:16 PM by hohi »
Cheers,
hohi.

current resource positions: ALS.TO  //  NILSY  //  IVN.TO   //   DPM.TO   //   GAZ

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6367 on: Today at 03:51:20 AM »
https://yosemite.epa.gov/OA/EAB_WEB_Docket.nsf/Dockets/UIC+18-04

More permit delays for Excelsior. EPA now has until October 12th to decide on the appeal, while the petitioners will have until November 5th to respond to the EPA’s decision. (Something about new staff coming into EPA region 9 office and existing staff taking summer vacations.) Excelsior has lawyers involved.

This EPA office is spectacular at delay. Excelsior had been expecting an effective EPA by Q4 2017 (see timeline in old Excelsior presentations).

Now I don’t expect an effective EPA permit until February 1st, 2019. Then financing, then construction, then commercial commisioning.

No royalty income for Altius until early 2020, I think.

linealdin

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #6368 on: Today at 06:37:41 PM »
https://www.thereminder.ca/news/local-news/search-is-on-for-northern-manitoba-s-next-mine-1.23387174

Assabgui also provided updates for operations near Flin Flon, stating that efforts to extend the lifespan of 777 mine were underway.

“Today, our business plan has the mine closing in 2021, but we’re looking to extend that life with the possibility of adding reserves with remnants. We’re working on that today,” said Assabgui.

Assabgui also confirmed Hudbay is conducting drilling operations near Flin Flon and Snow Lake, including ongoing operations near Centoba Park and at the Pen deposit near Lalor mine.

*

“Adding reserves with remnants.” I like the sound of that. I want to see 777 mine open through 2024.