Author Topic: BH - Biglari Holdings  (Read 1313684 times)

Redskin212

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 153
Re: BH - Biglari Holdings
« Reply #80 on: February 27, 2013, 04:49:42 AM »
Looks like Biglari has found a winner in CBRL.  It will be interesting to see how this fight with CBRL's management is finally resolved.


Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. - Shares in the operator of Cracker Barrel restaurants surged nearly 13% today to hit a new all-time high of $75.45 during the first half of the session, after the company posted better-than-expected earnings and revenue and raised earnings guidance for fiscal year 2013. Fresh interest in front month calls on CBRL suggests one or more traders are positioning for shares in the name to extend gains in the near term. Bullish strategists traded more than 180 calls at the Mar. $80 strike against open interest of 16 contracts, buying most of the volume for an average premium of $0.25 apiece in the early going this morning. Call buyers may profit at expiration in two weeks in the event that shares in Cracker Barrel rally 6.0% over today's high of $75.45 to top the average breakeven point at $80.25.


siddharth18

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 605
Re: BH - Biglari Holdings
« Reply #81 on: February 28, 2013, 12:25:40 AM »
So what's Biglari's average purchase price on his 20% stake?

UPDATE: Did find from his shareholder letter that his first 17% stake was at avg price of ~$48/share

« Last Edit: February 28, 2013, 12:36:40 AM by siddharth18 »

Kuhndan

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 117
Biglari Holdings
« Reply #82 on: March 06, 2013, 06:39:15 PM »
I know this won't be popular with some on this board, put I have a series of eight articles on Biglari Holdings coming out on Seeking Alpha. The first was published today with the remaining articles to follow over the next two weeks. I've been a buyer of BH for the past three years (with minimal profits to show for my efforts to date) but I am convinced that Sardar has something special. The link is below:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1251201-biglari-holdings-sardar-biglari-bet-the-jockey-part-i?source=yahoo

bookie71

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 953
Re: BH - Biglari Holdings
« Reply #83 on: March 06, 2013, 08:41:00 PM »
I wish both you and he all the luck, but I like to sleep at night, instead of wondering what my "partner" is doing to change the rules.
Always remember, Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered.

Parsad

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8656
Re: BH - Biglari Holdings
« Reply #84 on: March 06, 2013, 09:00:42 PM »
I wish both you and he all the luck, but I like to sleep at night, instead of wondering what my "partner" is doing to change the rules.

Yup.  He's definitely one to watch and there is a story there to tell, but shareholders will have to watch their back as well and may end up with their own story to tell at some point.  He'll be rich, but I choose not to partner with people like that.  Mohnish said it best in his interview a little while ago..."Lose money, you lose nothing.  Lose health, you lose something.  Lose reputation, all is lost."  Sardar has lost one aspect of his reputation...that he puts his shareholders ahead of himself...and that will not come back to him.  Cheers!
No man is a failure who has friends!

siddharth18

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 605
Re: BH - Biglari Holdings
« Reply #85 on: March 06, 2013, 09:18:29 PM »
Sardar may get no respect from the peanut gallery but he still has a following of a microcosm among those that pride themselves of being value investors. And that's all he needs honestly. If he's measuring himself against himself and his past (and this, I believe, is the most objective way of measuring oneself) he's done quite well. In 2000's he was barely worth a million (from selling his first venture) and fast forward to 2013 and he's worth a multiple of that, has his own springboard and he's not completely off-track from where he wants to be.

Granted, he is not as humble as Warren Buffett, I'm sure he thinks that he doesn't need to be. In some ways, he's the antithesis of Buffett in that Biglari choses to be hostile (think proxy fights) where Warren chose to be humble (think keeping same leadership). Sardar has got it all figured out in his head and so far he has made out well personally, even while his stock continues to languish for over 3 years (which is a story unto itself).
« Last Edit: March 06, 2013, 10:09:23 PM by siddharth18 »

ragu

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 212
    • Personal investing blog
Re: Biglari Holdings
« Reply #86 on: March 06, 2013, 09:36:12 PM »
I know this won't be popular with some on this board, put I have a series of eight articles on Biglari Holdings coming out on Seeking Alpha. The first was published today with the remaining articles to follow over the next two weeks.

Kuhndan,

I quite enjoyed it and look forward to the rest.


[...]but I am convinced that Sardar has something special.

Likewise. I have high expectations of Sardar. Paradoxically, I expect that he will surpass them.

Best,
Ragu

giofranchi

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5509
  • Twitter: @giovfranchi
    • Master School Politecnico di Milano
Re: Biglari Holdings
« Reply #87 on: March 06, 2013, 11:23:20 PM »
I know this won't be popular with some on this board, put I have a series of eight articles on Biglari Holdings coming out on Seeking Alpha. The first was published today with the remaining articles to follow over the next two weeks. I've been a buyer of BH for the past three years (with minimal profits to show for my efforts to date) but I am convinced that Sardar has something special. The link is below:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1251201-biglari-holdings-sardar-biglari-bet-the-jockey-part-i?source=yahoo

Kuhndan,
I agree with most of the criticisms on this board regarding Mr. Biglari. But I like the way he has conceived and structured Biglari Holdings very much. And I have an investment in BH, that I intend to keep, unless it becomes seriously overvalued.
It is true that BH stock price has gone sideways for almost three years. But the reason is overvaluation at the beginning of the three years period. BV per share, instead, has continued growing handsomely. Right now overvaluation is not an issue anymore. Actually, I think BH is quite undervalued.

giofranchi

“As time goes on I get more and more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes. It is a mistake to think that one limits one’s risk by spreading too much between enterprises about which one knows little and has no reason for special confidence.” - John Maynard Keynes
Portfolio: AAPL, AMZN, BABA, BOSS, BRK.B, FB, FFH, FIH.U, FINX, FWONA, GOOG, IBB, JPM, LBRDA, MKL, NKE, QQQ, SFTBF, SMH, TCEHY, V, XBI, XT

Parsad

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8656
Re: BH - Biglari Holdings
« Reply #88 on: March 07, 2013, 12:00:07 AM »
It's not undervalued, but it is cheaper than a year ago as CBRL has gone up.  Growth at SNS has been somewhat flat, but much of the industry has also been the same.  With that much captive capital, I would have thought he would have picked more compelling and even cheaper businesses, rather than go after CBRL.  Nonetheless, he's got a lot of capital that he can do some damage with.  Cheers!
No man is a failure who has friends!

giofranchi

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5509
  • Twitter: @giovfranchi
    • Master School Politecnico di Milano
Re: BH - Biglari Holdings
« Reply #89 on: March 07, 2013, 12:53:28 AM »
It's not undervalued, but it is cheaper than a year ago as CBRL has gone up.  Growth at SNS has been somewhat flat, but much of the industry has also been the same.  With that much captive capital, I would have thought he would have picked more compelling and even cheaper businesses, rather than go after CBRL.  Nonetheless, he's got a lot of capital that he can do some damage with.  Cheers!

Anything that trades at 1.25 x BV per share, and has the ability to grow BV per share at a 15% CAGR for the next 20 years, is undervalued. And those are my assumptions for Biglari Holdings. Although they surely might be wrong (nothing is certain!), I clearly understand how and why BH might succeed in meeting those goals. I don’t invest in businesses, where I don’t understand how and why they might be able to increase BV per share at a 15% CAGR for the next 10 to 20 years. That’s why my circle of competence is so small! :) I don’t like looking for things that are “statistically cheap”, 0.5 x BV per share or something like that, if I don’t understand them very well. Like Mr. E. H. Harriman was used to saying: “I am not interested in ten per cent: I want something that will grow.” And, if BH really succeeds in growing, 1.25 x BV per share will prove to be a true bargain.
That being said, I am well aware of Mr. Biglari’s flaws, and BH stays a relatively small position in my firm’s portfolio of businesses.
As an aside, I believe Mr. Biglari hasn’t picked “more compelling and even cheaper businesses, rather than go after CBRL”, exactly because he knows his circle of competence very well, and doesn’t stray outside:
Quote
Our approach to purchasing stocks is to concentrate capital into very few concerns. We focus our attention and capital in an attempt to increase returns yet concomitantly reduce investment risk. Therefore, we limit our appraisals and allocations to businesses we can rationally assess, immersing ourselves in understanding a business rather than attempting to study many shallowly. As a consequence, our range of investments may be narrow, but within it we must be supreme. Analysis that is a mile wide and an inch deep is fool’s gold. We purchase stocks for investment not speculation. Our old-fashioned, long-term investment approach is one that suits us.

giofranchi

“As time goes on I get more and more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes. It is a mistake to think that one limits one’s risk by spreading too much between enterprises about which one knows little and has no reason for special confidence.” - John Maynard Keynes
« Last Edit: March 07, 2013, 01:49:34 AM by giofranchi »
Portfolio: AAPL, AMZN, BABA, BOSS, BRK.B, FB, FFH, FIH.U, FINX, FWONA, GOOG, IBB, JPM, LBRDA, MKL, NKE, QQQ, SFTBF, SMH, TCEHY, V, XBI, XT