Corner of Berkshire & Fairfax Message Board

General Category => Investment Ideas => Topic started by: LowIQinvestor on February 25, 2015, 10:40:17 AM

Title: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: LowIQinvestor on February 25, 2015, 10:40:17 AM
(See Carson Block's recent long thesis)

Founded in 1822, the Bolloré Group is one of the 500 largest companies in the world. Listed on the Paris Stock Exchange, the majority interest of the Group's stock is always controlled by the Bolloré family. This stable majority control of its capital allows the Group to develop a long-term investment policy.
Thanks to a diversification strategy based on innovation and on international development, it now holds strong positions in all its activities around three business lines, Transportation and Logistics, Communication and Media, Electricity Storage and solutions.

In addition its activities, the Group manages a number of financial assets including plantations and financial investments.

In 2013:
53,608 employees world-wide
Turnover: 10,848 million euros
Net income: 450 million euros
Shareholders' equity: 9,316 million euros

http://www.bollore.com/en-us/investors/key-figures

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-17/block-s-muddy-waters-takes-first-bullish-bet-on-france-s-bollore
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: Phaceliacapital on February 26, 2015, 01:41:16 AM
Yeah, so the case basically boils down to believing in the circular calculations the external consultant performed for MW. They don't really claim assets are undervalued, just that your share is actually worth more than you think, difficult to confirm this yourself, no?

That being said, it's a nice owner operator, and MW paper gives good background info. In addition, the circular ownership setup is very interesting for the entrepeneurs amongst us.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: accutronman on February 26, 2015, 06:16:42 AM
Bollore is a superb stock and Vincent Bollore is a consummate deal maker. Additionally, a great play on Africa with the holdings in ports and plantations. I bought back in 2012 and have tripled my money since then. Link to MW report: http://www.muddywatersresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/MW_Bollore_02172015.pdf
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: accutronman on February 26, 2015, 06:19:28 AM
Additionally, if you want to play price to book value and the interlocking ownership of Bollore, take a look at the upstream entity Financiere de l'Odet (ODET.PA). More thinly traded but performance at times outstrips Bollore.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: writser on February 26, 2015, 06:56:48 AM
This idea looks interesting but it's too complicated for me to understand. As Phaceliacapital said you just have to believe the Muddy Waters research. Makes it a pass for me.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: LowIQinvestor on February 26, 2015, 06:57:26 AM
Quote
Bollore is a superb stock and Vincent Bollore is a consummate deal maker. Additionally, a great play on Africa with the holdings in ports and plantations. I bought back in 2012 and have tripled my money since then. Link to MW report: http://www.muddywatersresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/MW_Bollore_02172015.pdf

Thanks for providing the MW report. I hadn't seen it.

I followed Bollore into Vivendi in mid 2012 (VIVHY)- It still looks attractive despite being up around 40% from my cost basis.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: Hielko on February 26, 2015, 07:23:38 AM
This idea looks interesting but it's too complicated for me to understand. As Phaceliacapital said you just have to believe the Muddy Waters research. Makes it a pass for me.
It's not rocket science what MW did. Should be able to replicate their work with a bit of effort.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: constructive on February 26, 2015, 09:15:10 AM
So it's what, 20 or 25x earnings? Definitely cheap on NAV but not particularly cheap on earnings/cash flow.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: writser on February 26, 2015, 09:39:17 AM
This idea looks interesting but it's too complicated for me to understand. As Phaceliacapital said you just have to believe the Muddy Waters research. Makes it a pass for me.
It's not rocket science what MW did. Should be able to replicate their work with a bit of effort.

But it's work ...
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: namo on February 26, 2015, 10:34:40 AM
Additionally, if you want to play price to book value and the interlocking ownership of Bollore, take a look at the upstream entity Financiere de l'Odet (ODET.PA). More thinly traded but performance at times outstrips Bollore.
Also, Bolloré is where the stock is emitted (as acquisition currency), whereas Odet stockholders never got diluted.

Disclosure: I own Odet stock.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: LowIQinvestor on March 02, 2015, 11:19:19 AM
Just out: "Bollore raises Vivendi (VIVHY) stake to 8.15 pct"

http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/03/02/bollore-vivendi-idINL5N0W44WB20150302
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: jeyfox on July 29, 2015, 02:27:05 AM
Hi,
Bolloré issued a 6 year 450 MEUR bond with a 2,875% interest rate. We will see what he will do with the additional cash.
His stake in Vivendi is now at 14,5%.
Nice stake in Telecom Italia also.
Cheers!
Jeremy
Long Bolloré galaxy.

 
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: jeyfox on July 29, 2015, 03:43:11 PM
Hi,
Vivendi (of which 14,5% is owned by Bolloré) now also has 0,95% of Telefonica. They got this share by swapping 3,5% of Telefonica Brasil. It seems that they wish to focus their attention on Europe.
A long time before the Muddy Waters report, a french investment firm had investigated thoroughly this complex galaxy and understands it's complexity: Moneta Asset Management (I do not work for them).
Cheers!
Jeremy
Long Bolloré galaxy.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: Phaceliacapital on July 30, 2015, 12:08:10 AM
I thought Vivendi had 14.9% of Telefonica?
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: jeyfox on July 30, 2015, 03:07:43 AM
Hi,
I double checked: I confirm that Vivendi has 14,9% of Telecom Italia, 0,95% of Telefonica.
They got their 14,9M of Telecom Italia through the sale of GVT to Telefonica. Telfonica being an indirect shareholder of Telecom Italia.
Today Vivendi announced that they sold on the market the balance of their holdings in Telefonica Bresil. They got 877 MUSD through this transaction.
Cheers!
Jeremy
Long Bolloré Galaxy.
No holdings in Vivendi.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: Phaceliacapital on July 31, 2015, 02:47:28 AM
Woops I read your telefonica as Italia, my bad!
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: giofranchi on July 31, 2015, 04:26:47 AM
jeyfox,
your web site seems to be quite interesting!

What about those who do not speak French? ;)

Cheers,

Gio
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: bookie71 on July 31, 2015, 09:11:15 AM
Google will translate.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: jeyfox on August 28, 2015, 09:47:21 AM
Hi,
first half results are published for Bolloré.
The numbers seem good to me:
-Sales: up 5% (flat on on constant exchange rate).
- EBITDA is ate 536 MEUR up 17%. Transport and logistics (thanks to Africa) and communications (thanks to Havas) did well.
- EBIT: up 11% at 338 MEUR.
- Net profit: 552 MEUR and took advantage of the dividend's paid by Vivendi.
There is an option given to use the interim dividend to acquire some Bolloré stock at 4,35 euros.
Blue Solutions published it's first positive EBIT (3,6 MEUR during the first semester) which is explained by an increase in the sale batteries (+35,3% due to the Bluecar and to Bluestorage) and a decrease in the manufacturing cost of goods sold.
Cheers!
Jeremy
Long Bolloré galaxy.

 
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: Phaceliacapital on May 13, 2016, 03:16:03 AM
Anyone looking at this atm?

Looks like commodity cycle in Africa has finally catched up with them in T&L.. ?
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: ebdem on May 21, 2016, 06:25:27 AM
Yes. I am looking deeply at it. Looks very interesting atm. Based on relativly conservative assumptions I am seeing Bollore at a roundabout 20-35% discount to its fair value. If the thesis of MuddyWaters is right, we might also have discount of 40%-70%, which is really huge for a company like this in good shape.

There also seems to be a good chance to make money in the investment in Vivendi (which I am also researching at the moment).

I am having a deeper debate in a German forum - if you know German, i can drop the link.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: Damerei on May 21, 2016, 11:44:34 PM
Yes. I am looking deeply at it. Looks very interesting atm. Based on relativly conservative assumptions I am seeing Bollore at a roundabout 20-35% discount to its fair value. If the thesis of MuddyWaters is right, we might also have discount of 40%-70%, which is really huge for a company like this in good shape.

There also seems to be a good chance to make money in the investment in Vivendi (which I am also researching at the moment).

I am having a deeper debate in a German forum - if you know German, i can drop the link.

I have a smattering of German and my interest has been piqued by this company. I would appreciate the link.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: wachtwoord on May 22, 2016, 03:54:37 AM
With the rise of correct auto-translation software you don't 'need' to speak the language any more to understand most of the content. I love following www.vardebyran.se (by a member here) for instance but don't speak a word of Swedish. Just use Google translate :)
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: ebdem on May 22, 2016, 04:36:40 AM
http://www.wertpapier-forum.de/topic/42436-bollore/page__st__40  (http://www.wertpapier-forum.de/topic/42436-bollore/page__st__40) Here`s the link -  btw: last time I used google translate it was a bit messy. But maybe the reason was i used it for a translating from Albanian or Greek to German ;).
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: wachtwoord on May 22, 2016, 04:40:19 AM
http://www.wertpapier-forum.de/topic/42436-bollore/page__st__40  (http://www.wertpapier-forum.de/topic/42436-bollore/page__st__40) Here`s the link -  btw: last time I used google translate it was a bit messy. But maybe the reason was i used it for a translating from Albanian or Greek to German ;).

Both the Slavic languages (never tried Albanian per se, but Serbian is very similar) and Greek to English works quite okay. I used this many times in the past to book hotels on the cheap (in the past also to communicate with the hotel over email).

Thanks for the link

Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: Jurgis on May 22, 2016, 02:23:43 PM
Google translate is still pretty crappy:

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=de&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wertpapier-forum.de%2Ftopic%2F42436-bollore%2Fpage__st__40&edit-text=&act=url

Some pieces are understandable, but some sentences make pretty much no sense.  :(
Considering this is one of the most researched, most data-collected and one of the easiest language pairs (English-German), the quality makes me rather sad. :(

Thanks for the link anyways.  8)
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: ebdem on May 22, 2016, 05:24:08 PM
Oh.. Google translate is still crappy :D..  if i should translate some sentences or answer questions, just go for it..
This weekend I also tried to understand why Bolloré invested in Vivendi. In my eyes he bought the company with a slight discount to fair value and has opportunities to grow it or maybe also merge businesses with Havas, which he owns to 60%. Furthermore he has a lot of cash in hand, which can be used/can use for buybacks (he buys under 20 € or 18 € - after the dividends), dividends or acquisitions. The plan to make Vivendi to a sucessful counterpart to Google, Netflix and others (someone quoted him like that) sounds a bit mad, but maybe there also some chances. Bollore`s Vivendi also has a huge stake in Telecom Italia, which gives him huge influence. But I am not sure what strategy skslies behind this engagement.
Compared to his holding I think there is less discount in Vivendi than in Bollore. Both other somehow cyclical businesses with growth opportunities, but also risks. One of my newest concern is the risk of a downturn of shipping and freightrates - also affecting Africa. To put in an argument: China's hunger for ressources is slowing and this is making Africa's economy to a lame duck. This might also affect Bolloré port business, which is from my stance the most desirable part of his holding. Any opinions on that?
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: accutronman on May 23, 2016, 08:20:04 AM
Having bought and sold Bollore over the years, I prefer to hold it through ODET.PA
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: Jurgis on May 23, 2016, 01:59:25 PM
I guess my concern is similar to ebdem's in the German forum: Bollore's campaign and lawsuits against journalists portraying him negatively and suppression of journalists from Bollore-owned publications. Unwillingness to handle criticism in press may mean that he does not tolerate differing views overall and may lead to narrow views and mistakes in business. I think I'll skip.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: no_free_lunch on December 26, 2016, 09:25:50 AM
No position in this one but could be worth a look.  Based on reading this thread it is basically faith based investing.  You do have the track record to go on but not sure what the stock is really worth.  If you trust the analyst referenced by barrons, at a current price of $3.30 there is about 50% upside.  You also have a historical price around $5 a couple years ago as a reference point.


Quote
Over the past two decades, French billionaire Vincent Bolloré has made a compounded 16.8% a year for investors through his investment vehicle, Bolloré SA (ticker: BOL.France) (BOIVF). That compares with 10.6% for Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B).
..
Bosset estimates that the company’s assets are worth €5 a share. His €4.10 price target comes from discounting this figure for risk.
http://www.barrons.com/articles/follow-buffett-of-france-for-a-three-year-double-1482491739
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: no_free_lunch on December 26, 2016, 10:19:45 AM
Quote
..Francois Fillon to emerge as her top contender, a candidate whose policies look much more similar to Trump’s than any other in France. And he’s not just a top contender, but has opened up a commanding 32% lead in recent polls.
..
France’s Fillon has a free-market agenda that would unlock a stagnant French economy by reducing regulations, promoting longer work weeks, lowering entitlements, reducing the importance of unions, and lowering French government spending outside of defense. Proposed policies include a reduction in numerous taxes, including corporate taxes, and a complete re-writing of labor laws. Yet the market is largely unaware of such a positive outcome being remotely close to possible.
..
Bolloré is one of our favorite Franco-Italian stock picks and we think it’s particularly a well-timed bet heading into 2017 for more than just French electoral and market reasons. We think most of its units that have faced tough 2016 trading conditions are poised to significantly recover in 2017, and the discount to net asset value has rarely been wider.

http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/12/bollore-greenwood-investors/
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: awindenberger on December 26, 2016, 11:32:57 PM
Thanks for throwing this up again, I think I'm going to take a bite. I like the fact that the company is spending big on battery tech, although its still not clear if their technology is better or not. While currently we should assign $0 or even negative value to that part of the biz, it has the potential to be the long term growth catalyst.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: no_free_lunch on December 27, 2016, 10:14:43 AM
I have only had a superficial look at the operating businesses but they seem of reasonable quality.  Ports, railways, energy transport, mostly industries I could see a company like brookfield investing in.  Definitely some risk with the africa tilt.   Not so sure about the electric car company but perhaps the ride ownership has legs.  Vivendi is interesting.

The muddy waters thesis is where I have been spending my time.  It appears mostly correct although I can't match all of their numbers.  There is a chart on the last page of their financials which clearly breaks out the ownership and you can see on it the ownership loops.   Basically you have the parent of Bollore being fractionally owned by subsidiaries of Bollore.  It is the most nutty thing I have ever seen.  Crazy that there is a thesis involving the number of outstanding shares!   However, so far it appears they are correct, just a question of how many shares there really are.

The one thing I can't verify from MW is the ownership of parents by bollore itself.  Does anyone have any data to back that up?
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: mateo999 on December 27, 2016, 11:03:17 AM
I have only had a superficial look at the operating businesses but they seem of reasonable quality.  Ports, railways, energy transport, mostly industries I could see a company like brookfield investing in.  Definitely some risk with the africa tilt.   Not so sure about the electric car company but perhaps the ride ownership has legs.  Vivendi is interesting.

The muddy waters thesis is where I have been spending my time.  It appears mostly correct although I can't match all of their numbers.  There is a chart on the last page of their financials which clearly breaks out the ownership and you can see on it the ownership loops.   Basically you have the parent of Bollore being fractionally owned by subsidiaries of Bollore.  It is the most nutty thing I have ever seen.  Crazy that there is a thesis involving the number of outstanding shares!   However, so far it appears they are correct, just a question of how many shares there really are.

The one thing I can't verify from MW is the ownership of parents by bollore itself.  Does anyone have any data to back that up?

You can look in the Odet annual report for some additional (but not complete) clarification. 
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: no_free_lunch on December 27, 2016, 06:49:23 PM
Thanks mateo.  Indeed Odet's financials make things much clearer.  Still much work to be done here..
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: no_free_lunch on December 28, 2016, 02:45:16 PM
I have had a look through Bollore's ownership chain and have a rough calculation of the shareholders true ownership. 

The way I see it, if you follow the ownership structure starting at bollore and working up, there are sporadic claims by true shareholders of the parent companies at perhaps 3 points on the chain with everything else going to the subs.    I see the following:

 1) Public shareholders of Bollore own 35.7% of Bollore.
 2) Public shareholders of Odet own 5.9% of Bollore.  I calculate this starting with the public shareholders of Odet ow 9.2% of Odet, Odet owns 63.8% of Bollore.  If you multiply the 2 fractions you get 5.9% of Bollore owned by Odet.
 3) Bollore Participations shareholders own 4.55%.  There are a series of parent of Odet, ultimately it is owned by Bollore Participations.  I assume that BP is 100% owned by the family but it doesn't really matter.  If you follow the fractions of ownership you end with the Bollore Participations shareholders or the parent if there is another parent, this entity owns 4.55% of Bollore.
 4) The remainder is owned by subsidiaries, this amounts to 53.8%.

However, the subsidiaries are then ultimately owned by Bollore itself. 

I think there might be a small amount of leakage in the subs due to small fractions being owned outside the group but I can't verify the exact number.  It looks like it would be small, 2 or 3% might leak out.  The majority of that 53.8% goes back to Bollore and gets redistributed out.   However the redistribution just goes along the same ratios as the first round.

If you work it out and follow the ownership chains, it appears that in the end the ownership works across the original bollore/odet/BP ownership ratios.

So:

1) Bollore public shareholders owns 35.7% / (35.7 + 5.9 + 4.55) : 77% of Bollore.
2) Odet public shareholders owns 5.9 / (35.7 + 5.9 + 4.55) : 12.7% of Bollore.
3) BP owns 4.55 / (35.7 + 5.9 + 4.55) : 9.9% of Bollore.

The numbers above are probably a bit overstated as I didn't take into account leakage from the subs.  Still each of these entities should own more than double what is attributed.

It appears that BOL publicly listed shares have bvps $7.5-$8 vs a bvps of roughly $3.50 using simple book value divided by shares outstanding.  So it is roughly a 50 cent or maybe even 45 cent dollar.

Anyone see any holes in this?
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: awindenberger on December 28, 2016, 10:34:42 PM
I have had a look through Bollore's ownership chain and have a rough calculation of the shareholders true ownership. 

The way I see it, if you follow the ownership structure starting at bollore and working up, there are sporadic claims by true shareholders of the parent companies at perhaps 3 points on the chain with everything else going to the subs.    I see the following:

 1) Public shareholders of Bollore own 35.7% of Bollore.
 2) Public shareholders of Odet own 5.9% of Bollore.  I calculate this starting with the public shareholders of Odet ow 9.2% of Odet, Odet owns 63.8% of Bollore.  If you multiply the 2 fractions you get 5.9% of Bollore owned by Odet.
 3) Bollore Participations shareholders own 4.55%.  There are a series of parent of Odet, ultimately it is owned by Bollore Participations.  I assume that BP is 100% owned by the family but it doesn't really matter.  If you follow the fractions of ownership you end with the Bollore Participations shareholders or the parent if there is another parent, this entity owns 4.55% of Bollore.
 4) The remainder is owned by subsidiaries, this amounts to 53.8%.

However, the subsidiaries are then ultimately owned by Bollore itself. 

I think there might be a small amount of leakage in the subs due to small fractions being owned outside the group but I can't verify the exact number.  It looks like it would be small, 2 or 3% might leak out.  The majority of that 53.8% goes back to Bollore and gets redistributed out.   However the redistribution just goes along the same ratios as the first round.

If you work it out and follow the ownership chains, it appears that in the end the ownership works across the original bollore/odet/BP ownership ratios.

So:

1) Bollore public shareholders owns 35.7% / (35.7 + 5.9 + 4.55) : 77% of Bollore.
2) Odet public shareholders owns 5.9 / (35.7 + 5.9 + 4.55) : 12.7% of Bollore.
3) BP owns 4.55 / (35.7 + 5.9 + 4.55) : 9.9% of Bollore.

The numbers above are probably a bit overstated as I didn't take into account leakage from the subs.  Still each of these entities should own more than double what is attributed.

It appears that BOL publicly listed shares have bvps $7.5-$8 vs a bvps of roughly $3.50 using simple book value divided by shares outstanding.  So it is roughly a 50 cent or maybe even 45 cent dollar.

Anyone see any holes in this?

Very interesting way to approach this. I think its cleaner than what I was trying. When I get a chance I want to try to figure out what the leakage is, since it is going to be at least a few percent, but overall this definitely looks like a 50 cent dollar deal. Of course the question is, will that ever change?
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: no_free_lunch on December 29, 2016, 06:14:13 AM
awindenberger,

Have a look at the havas deal, it shows how they can convert the ownership loops into capital.  In that deal they traded some of the Bollore shares held by subs (this is a detail I can't verify but you can see the boost in public shares of Bollore between the 2013 & 2014 annual report with a corresponding drop in shares owned by the subs) for shares of Havas.  Or at least for a portion of the Havas shares they acquired.

If you think about what happened, Bollore ended up with about $1.2B (this is a rough estimate, don't have notes handy) of Havas stock vs a cost of what?  They didn't issue any new shares, they didn't pay anything, they didn't issue any debt.  They just took the Bollore shares from the subs and moved them to the Havas public shareholders in exchange for ~40% of the Havas shares.

Technically they did dilute the Bollore shareholders in that there are more shares owned by the public which impacts the calculations I would do.  However, from a simple book value or book value per share point of view, the entire $1.2B (or whatever portion came from swapping sub shares) would have just been added to equity.   

It seems like the Havas deal showed how they can unlock the value in the chain.  However, they cannot have more than 49% of the Bollore shares owned by the public as they want to retain control.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: awindenberger on December 29, 2016, 10:44:26 AM
awindenberger,

Have a look at the havas deal, it shows how they can convert the ownership loops into capital.  In that deal they traded some of the Bollore shares held by subs (this is a detail I can't verify but you can see the boost in public shares of Bollore between the 2013 & 2014 annual report with a corresponding drop in shares owned by the subs) for shares of Havas.  Or at least for a portion of the Havas shares they acquired.

If you think about what happened, Bollore ended up with about $1.2B (this is a rough estimate, don't have notes handy) of Havas stock vs a cost of what?  They didn't issue any new shares, they didn't pay anything, they didn't issue any debt.  They just took the Bollore shares from the subs and moved them to the Havas public shareholders in exchange for ~40% of the Havas shares.

Technically they did dilute the Bollore shareholders in that there are more shares owned by the public which impacts the calculations I would do.  However, from a simple book value or book value per share point of view, the entire $1.2B (or whatever portion came from swapping sub shares) would have just been added to equity.   

It seems like the Havas deal showed how they can unlock the value in the chain.  However, they cannot have more than 49% of the Bollore shares owned by the public as they want to retain control.

Thanks for pointing out that transaction, I'll have a look at it.

BTW for those interested in this, Sardar Biglari executed a much simplified version of this at Biglari Holdings (BH). Investment funds managed by him own close to 50% of the shares of BH, yet BH owns 61% of one fund and 95% of the other, so in effect BH's public shares outstanding are 40% lower than stated.

After looking at Bollore, the BH setup is as easy as eating a cupcake.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: Phaceliacapital on January 19, 2017, 08:38:00 AM
FYI: Sumzero winner:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=EbHYm0pa_P8
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: awindenberger on January 20, 2017, 01:20:24 AM
FYI: Sumzero winner:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=EbHYm0pa_P8

Thanks
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: whiterose on January 21, 2017, 04:30:34 AM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-20/bollore-s-electric-car-venture-leaves-investors-on-side-of-road
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: no_free_lunch on January 22, 2017, 09:01:47 PM
Thanks for the link.

FYI: Sumzero winner:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=EbHYm0pa_P8

Notes:

- Trading at a 60%discount
- run by a fantastic capital allocator
- predicts NAV could double by 2019
- nav discount is typically 45-55% so a higher than average discount
- bulk of the value in african ports + global logistics
- ports high margin cap intensive
- $1b annual cash flow in ports/logistics
- african business is sensitive to commodities
- media divisions next in size
- universal music / vivendi


maybe more later, I got tired doing notes.

I took a position awhile back.  Still only 1%.  I think it's a good bet but the business is tough to predict.  Reminds me of a somewhat more stable SoftBank.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: Scunny Bunny on January 24, 2017, 05:53:43 AM
If you agree - especially with the "unwind" idea towards the end - Financiere de L'Odet is at a 50% discount to Bollore's trading price & is listed - only 9% float trades at €790 a share. 4.25m shares & ~€330m of debt. Bollore is the most brilliant BULL MARKET 5 level 50% of 50% type control structure you've ever seen. I am long ODET.PA
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: no_free_lunch on January 24, 2017, 06:45:05 AM
Yes ODET looks very interesting indeed.  I just can't buy it in the US but definitely a bit better deal.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: Jurgis on January 24, 2017, 09:19:30 AM
I just can't buy it in the US

I'm not sure why you think that.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: Jurgis on January 24, 2017, 09:31:56 AM
I guess a question about ODET is whether it's a PFIC. That would complicate any buying in US non-tax-deferred accounts.

BOL is likely not a PFIC since it has a bunch of operating businesses.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: jeyfox on January 25, 2017, 08:24:24 AM
Hi,
the 2022 deadline (Vincent Bolloré (VB) will be 70 years old and is expected to transfer management to his children and the company will be 200 years old) can also be taken into account. I think that it is important to bear in mind that VB is also a little bit unpredictable and will do things at his own rythm. But in the end he is there to create value.
We will see how (and if) Havas is used to increase his stake in Vivendi.
VB is increasing his share withing Vivendi in a smart way: Vivendi has been repurchasing lots of shares which automatically improves his share count in Vivendi.
Cheers
Jeremy
Long Bolloré Galaxie.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: no_free_lunch on January 28, 2017, 05:35:19 AM
Thanks jeyfox.  I will probably be out for awhile if VB leaves.

Since we talk nothing but politics these days, thought I would bring in some french politics as well.  The leading right-wing leader is now staring at a criminal investigation which could force him to abandon his position.   If so, it changes the political situation considerably and you could be looking at a showdown between a far right party and a socialist party.  Bollore is international and honestly either party will be okay but just one more thing to track.  Was really looking forward to fillon's agenda.

Quote
France’s conservative party les Républicains will be without a Plan B if its presidential candidate, François Fillon, is forced to step down amid an ongoing scandal of alleged illegal payments to his wife.

Fillon is under growing pressure following this week's revelations in satirical French weekly Le Canard Enchainé that Penelope Fillon was paid around 600,000 euros in public salaries between 1998 and 2002. The newspaper alleges there is little evidence she did any work that would justify the payments.

Fillon, who denies the allegations and says his wife worked hard as parliamentary assistant, said he will step down as les Républicains' candidate if he has to face charges

http://www.france24.com/en/20170127-french-right-republicains-have-no-presidential-election-candidate-fillon-steps-down
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: Haasje on January 28, 2017, 06:04:18 AM
I really don't get how it seems to be a global phenomenom that there is always so much dirt to dig up on politicians.   
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: frank87 on February 02, 2017, 01:11:15 PM
I'm not sure I understand this whole share count arbitrage thesis.

If Bollore subsidiaries own a big piece of Bollore, then the value (numerator) of those subsidiaries must also be subtracted from the net asset value to get at the net asset value per share. You can't just reduce the denominator without doing anything to the numerator.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: no_free_lunch on February 02, 2017, 01:34:13 PM
My thesis is that at the end of the day it is more or less a closed system.  So Bollore does own nearly all of the subsidiaries assets.   

I would look at the muddy waters white paper and in particular how dividends flow through the system.  The dividends go from bollore to you (shareholders), the subs, etc.  You keep your portion, but the subs are owned by bollore so they pay it back to bollore and around you go again.  In the end the dividends are filtered out by external owners (e.g. you and other shareholders) at each pass. 

None of that probably makes any sense.. I built a simple model of it in a spreadsheet.  It sounds complex but it only took an hour and the Bollore complex isn't really that difficult once you see it in action.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: frank87 on February 02, 2017, 01:55:18 PM
My thesis is that at the end of the day it is more or less a closed system.  So Bollore does own nearly all of the subsidiaries assets.   

I would look at the muddy waters white paper and in particular how dividends flow through the system.  The dividends go from bollore to you (shareholders), the subs, etc.  You keep your portion, but the subs are owned by bollore so they pay it back to bollore and around you go again.  In the end the dividends are filtered out by external owners (e.g. you and other shareholders) at each pass. 

None of that probably makes any sense.. I built a simple model of it in a spreadsheet.  It sounds complex but it only took an hour and the Bollore complex isn't really that difficult once you see it in action.

What I meant was: the sub's stakes in Bollore must then be subtracted from NAV to avoid double counting yes?
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: no_free_lunch on February 02, 2017, 02:18:11 PM
Yes you are correct.  I think the companies NAV already does this but to get around these complexities I just use fair value estimates I have seen.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: ebdem on February 04, 2017, 05:37:23 AM
The reason for this kind of "messy" structure is in my eyes:

Did someone take a look at the debt? I think the debt is consolidated in the report of Bolloré, but I am not sure.

In a presentation of David Marcus, which I can't share here, I saw a table on the aquisition and selling history of Bollorč. It is quite interesting how he made money out of nearly every deal he made.

One very interesting holding is Telecom Italia. It is held through Vivendi, which should have a fair value of 30 €. TIM is turning around recently: http://www.telecomitalia.com/tit/en/investors/presentations/2017/FY2016-preliminary-group-results-plan-update.html

Greenwood Investors do offer a quite interesting report on Bolloré and TIM.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: ebdem on February 06, 2017, 03:35:37 PM
Here are some great insights in Bollore: http://evermoreglobal.com/media/pdfs/Q4-2016-Transcript-Final.pdf?utm_term=Q4-2016-Transcript-Final.pdf&utm_campaign=Evermore%20Global%20Value%20Fund%20-%20Fact%20Sheet%2C%20Commentary%20and%20Call%20Transcript%20for%20Q4%202016&utm_content=email&utm_source=Act-On+Software&utm_medium=email&cm_mmc=Act-On%20Software-_-email-_-Evermore%20Global%20Value%20Fund%20-%20Fact%20Sheet%2C%20Commentary%20and%20Call%20Transcript%20for%20Q4%202016-_-Q4-2016-Transcript-Final.pdf
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: no_free_lunch on March 28, 2017, 11:16:37 AM
Result came out a few days ago for Bollore.  Not great numbers but then not at all unexpected.  If you look back at their history they go through waves of contracting and then expanding BVPS.  When they start the next up-wave the BV discount should shrink considerably in addition to the actual increase in BV.  I still think there is considerable upside here.

https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2017/03/23/943719/0/en/BOLLORE-2016-results.html
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: Shane on March 28, 2017, 02:45:43 PM
Has anyone identified a clear path for the structure to be simplified?  If the structure was created to avoid tax consequences, would a simplification be possible without paying tax?

The 'share count arbitrage' thesis relies on the market figuring out this complex structure or the simplification to take place.  It doesn't seem like an obvious bet to me, curious what others think.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: no_free_lunch on March 28, 2017, 03:39:43 PM
So hopefully someone more knowledgeable can answer but here is my take.

Don't invest on the share count arbitrage alone.  I view it as an extra lever they have available for them.  Just one example of what they can do (and did do with Havas) is to take the Bollore shares that are held by the subs and use them to buy other companies.  You don't want them to do that when the discount is large but nevertheless it is like free shares from the public shareholders perspective.  That is one way to unwind it.  In reality it is not going to completely unwind anytime soon but they can do this type of thing as needed.

So you have this lever and you have the CEO who has been a great capital allocator historically and can opportunistically use the complexities of the structure to add value.  It is a bid of a Malone situation in that the more complexity there is the more opportunities there are for him.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: ebdem on March 29, 2017, 02:53:51 AM
Did you have this video already posted? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EbHYm0pa_P8

Bolloré, as no_free_lunch said, is also a very good capital allocator. He compounded better as Buffett in the recent years. The investments in Vivendi and TIM are great chances. I think the whole thing can play out very good, even if not all cataclysts are realizied.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: LowIQinvestor on March 29, 2017, 07:26:59 AM
Thanks for sharing

For me, Vivendi is simpler to understand (VIVHY)

We are aggressive buyers at today's price.

http://www.digitaltveurope.net/666462/vivendi-chief-sees-future-in-horizontal-convergence/
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: ebdem on March 29, 2017, 04:03:39 PM
Vivendi is definatly interesting and easier to understand. I hold some shares.

In my eyes Vivendi has three pillars: 1. Canal+ 2. Universal Music 3. the financial investments (mostly TIM and Ubisoft). You might also add Gameloft and the other growth projects as pillar nr. 4 - but it's a small pillar.

1. Canal+ is turnaround story - both also a growth story. The consumers in Africa grow with more then 10% YonY, which is great. But the french business is shrinking and creating a loss of 400 mio € this year. Bolloré is pushing to change that, but it's no easy push. I think there is a potential to get the french part of the business in the winning zone again. But I am not that sure, how long this will take and how this will play out. It's a dance on the small line between cutting costs, staying attractive and competitve against Netflix and Co and investing in distribution and innovation. The deal with Mediaset can be very helpful, but it's still only a struggle.
@LoWIQinvestor: What is your assumption on the future of Canal+?

2. Universal Music is a lovely way to participate in the growth of streaming. Every 9,99 € a Spotify Customers pays are around 2,50 € for UMC - and this income is on a higher margin basis, cause there is no physical distribution needed. This already shines through the numbers. Also streaming has more potential as CDs. CDs are something for the developed countries, like USA, Japan and the EU. Streaming needs less infrastructure - just a smartphone. Streaming growth is strong - 60% YonY. But at the moment it is still eating the share of the other ways of music distribution.

3. I like the investment in TIM, which is undervalued, too (see the report of Greenwood Investors). The current share price is still below the level Vivendi paid, but there will be a return for this investment. TIM is performing good - and the share price barely noticed it.
I am still a bit puzzled on the investment in Ubisoft. They don't control it and I am still not sure where to find the synergies.

What I also like is the buyback of Vivendi's shares. Vivendi buys below the level of 17 €. So you have a clear signal for the entry. See more here: http://www.vivendi.com/en/investment-analysts/regulatory-information/treasury-share-transactions/
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: no_free_lunch on May 20, 2017, 05:56:34 AM
Vivendi put in a bid to buy Havas equity stake from Bollore.  It is for a small premium to the share price and synergies have not been identified.  I am not sure I understand the angle other than given the nature of the business it does fit better with vivendi.  The stock has surged in the past few years so also possible Bollore just sees it as over-valued.

Quote
French tycoon Vincent Bollore took a first step on Thursday in his attempt to merge media giant Vivendi and advertising company Havas, two groups he controls through his family-run conglomerate.

Vivendi said it was making an offer to buy Group Bollore's 60 percent stake in advertising group Havas for 9.25 euros a share, a premium of 8.8 percent over Wednesday's closing price, in a 2.36 billion euro ($2.6 billion) deal.
..
If Bollore's conglomerate agrees to sell its stake in the ad company, Vivendi plans to launch a simplified public tender offer on the remaining 40 percent of Havas at the same price, without seeking to delist the company, it said.

Vivendi said a merger with Havas would strongly increase its group margins but did not provide details on the potential synergies between the two groups. It said it aimed to close it by the end of June, beginning of July.
..
Havas, led by Bollore's son Yannick, was one of the two top targeted businesses in Vivendi's next expansion phase, two sources close to the matter said last month.

"Our groups evolve in a common world, some of our teams already know each other and our cultures look alike and complete each other," the Havas CEO said in an internal email obtained by Reuters.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/12/bollore-makes-first-step-to-merge-vivendi-and-havas-with-2-point-4-billion-euro-deal.html
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: no_free_lunch on June 01, 2017, 10:54:34 AM
Came across some news regarding succession, as well as plans around Vivendi.

Quote
Vincent Bollore said on Thursday he wanted his son Yannick to eventually take over as chief executive of Vivendi, the French media group where Bollore is chairman and leading shareholder.

Bollore, aged 65, has already stated his plan is to hand over his majority-owned Bollore Group to his four children in 2022, the year of the conglomerate's bincentenary.
..
Asked by a shareholder on Thursday about the possibility of spinning off Universal with an initial public share offer, Bollore confirmed that the group's teams were reviewing that option.

"The value (of UMG) increases every day and it's true that an IPO would be an interesting thing," he said. "The key question for an IPO is to know when is the best time to do it. It's like cheese puffs, you have to take them out at the right moment."

https://www.usnews.com/news/technology/articles/2017-06-01/bollore-lines-up-son-yannick-to-take-over-at-vivendi

This stock does not appear to be the bargain it once was, although perhaps it is still somewhat under-valued.  Anyone have any thoughts on valuation?
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: ebdem on June 01, 2017, 11:41:58 AM
Valuation is a bit higher now and it doesn't scream buy me. But nethertheless half of the stocks are still held in the company, Vivendi seems to be going well, TIM seems to be going well. The Africa business in Bolloré is quite interesting, logistics and oil are performing good, the sell of Havas will reduce the debt of Bolloré.
2022 can also give a timeline, that gives Vincent the opportunity to release a lot of value by simplyfing the shares structure.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: ebdem on July 26, 2017, 03:36:06 PM
This presentation might be interesting: http://valuexvail.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/bollore-tindell.pdf
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: awindenberger on July 27, 2017, 10:00:32 AM
This presentation might be interesting: http://valuexvail.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/bollore-tindell.pdf

Thanks!
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: fareastwarriors on August 31, 2017, 11:14:15 AM
Bollore's Ugly Deal Gets Uglier
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-08-31/vivendi-bid-for-havas-gets-even-uglier (https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-08-31/vivendi-bid-for-havas-gets-even-uglier)
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: no_free_lunch on August 31, 2017, 08:06:05 PM
Fareast. Good link. Based on that bollore got vivendi to buy havas at 40 to 50 pct premium to market multiples. Bollore owns enough havas that i think it more than offsets vivendi which they also have ownership in getting a raw deal. They also sold it at a time that revenue growth is decelerating. Wicked but shrewd.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: Scunny Bunny on September 25, 2017, 12:54:05 AM
Our little investment company had its AGM today featuring the bear case on bitcoin, bull cases on AC and BOL.PA. A few slides in it might help you pull apart the empire. https://www.nsx.com.au/ftp/news/021734052.PDF
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: no_free_lunch on October 17, 2017, 07:17:15 AM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-17/this-is-how-a-french-billionaire-retires

Quote
French billionaire Vincent Bollore plans to retire on Feb. 17, 2022, the 200th anniversary of his family-held Bollore Group.

..

He’s hitting obstacles on all fronts. Politicians, regulators, minority shareholders and would-be targets are resisting his attempts to use Vivendi SA to swallow leading broadcast, communications and video-game companies in Italy and France. Since he started building his controlling stake in Vivendi, Bollore has bought and sold 42.6 billion euros ($50.6 billion) in corporate assets—and it’s not clear what he’s gotten for it.

In addition to the pushback, Vivendi, which Bollore controls through a 21 percent minority stake, has been roiled by conflict at its units as he slashes costs, sheds assets and splashes out on acquisitions. Net cash has sunk from 8 billion euros in September 2015 to barely 500 million in June.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: SI on November 14, 2017, 09:00:54 AM
If anyone else has done more work on the PFIC status here, I would appreciate hearing what you learned. My read is that ODET is not a PFIC because  of the “look through exception” to the PFIC code(link below) as ODET FP is the 63% owner of BOL FP but would love to know if anyone else has crossed this bridge?

thanks,
SI

https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/1297
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: no_free_lunch on January 14, 2018, 08:13:15 AM
Quote
If Spotify, which isn’t yet profitable, will soon be worth $20 billion, as some investors predict, Universal should be valued at more than $40 billion, argues JPMorgan analyst Daniel Kerven in a recent report.

What’s remarkable about that estimate is that Vivendi (ticker: VIV.France) recently had a stock market value of 30.3 billion euros, or $36.9 billion.

“You pay for Universal Music, and you get everything else for free,” says David Marcus
..
Valuing Vivendi is complicated because some of its assets produce little or no income. Its shares trade at 24 times the 2018 earnings consensus. Many analysts use a sum-of-the-parts analysis, rather than a price/earnings comparison in forming price targets.

JPM’s Kerven is a bit of an outlier, with a target of €42, implying 76% upside from a recent €23 and change. Evermore’s Marcus sees the stock moving “into the high €30s,” and says a Universal spinoff is a possibility, but he hopes Vivendi keeps it.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/vivendi-looks-cheap-in-light-of-spotifys-valuation-1515813894

Bollore owns 20% of vivendi and it is a significant portion of Bollore's NAV.  Just off the top of my head the vivendi stake is probably close to 50% of bollore's market value.

In spite of the 50-60% run up last year, Bollore still appears attractively priced. 
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: ebdem on January 14, 2018, 10:28:21 AM
You are right, it still seems attractive to invest via bollore in vivendi. Might be a good option.
What I haven't understood totally is the havas transaction. Did anyone of you spend some time on it? I am curious what upside optionalities you see there.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: no_free_lunch on January 14, 2018, 11:23:40 AM
I think the upside was to Bollore and it occurred when the transaction closed.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: no_free_lunch on January 15, 2018, 10:23:05 AM
Our little investment company had its AGM today featuring the bear case on bitcoin, bull cases on AC and BOL.PA. A few slides in it might help you pull apart the empire. https://www.nsx.com.au/ftp/news/021734052.PDF

I just saw your presentation.  This is fantastic, thanks for sharing it.   I couldn't entirely follow everything on it but I agree that Odet is the way to play this.  You get an extra discount (to Bollore's market value) and extra self-cancelling shares, it is just a much better deal than Bollore with no discernible extra risk.   Either way you have the same management.  Odet is honestly the cheapest equity security I am aware of right now, period.

I am really having a hard time valuing the operations side of Bollore.  Muddy Waters put it at around $8B pre-debt considerations, but that is already a couple years old.  You have a breakdown in your presentation but I really have a hard time understanding it.  Do you have a number in mind for operations? 

Also, does your presentation include the $2.3B from the Havas sale?
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: ebdem on January 19, 2018, 03:10:13 PM
I think the upside was to Bollore and it occurred when the transaction closed.

I am not so sure. There are so many moving parts, but we might see some upside from the integration. If we think of an alliance between mediaset and canal+ and they become the media powerhouse for the french and spanish speaking countries, having a global agency on board might be very interestigng. Or Telecom Italia becoming a separated provider without a landline network there might be some options to sell telecom and internet services - also with the help of havas.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: Scunny Bunny on January 22, 2018, 02:54:01 AM
The quick and dirty on Bollore does include the Havas deal.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: Mondegreen on April 20, 2018, 03:26:31 PM
Article posted on VIC regarding ODET:

https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/Financiandegrave%3Bre_de_lOdet/141824
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: CLM5 on April 24, 2018, 08:25:17 AM
https://www.ft.com/content/dfd3abfa-47ab-11e8-8ee8-cae73aab7ccb
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: no_free_lunch on April 24, 2018, 08:32:54 AM
Whoa!

I will paraphrase so people don't have to go the link.  Vincent Bollore is in custody.  Stock down 7%.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: no_free_lunch on April 24, 2018, 11:00:40 AM
Quote
State prosecutors believe that Bollores, who has interests in several African countries, could have taken advantage of his Havas communications agency to facilitate African heads of state into power in exchange for concessions to operate these terminals.

They seek to draw a connection between Havas’ management of the 2010 presidential campaigns of the Guinean President Alpha Condé and Faure Gnassingbé of Togo at ridiculously subsidised prices and the subsequent acquisition of port rights by Bolloré Africa Logistics.

Other executives of the group were also taken into custody on Tuesday, including Gilles Alix, CEO of the Bolloré group, and Jean-Philippe Dorent, head of the international division of the Havas communications agency.

http://www.africanews.com/2018/04/24/french-billionaire-vincent-bollore-arrested-over-corruption-allegations-in/
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: Jurgis on April 25, 2018, 07:58:18 AM
As Bloomberg says, this is likely a common scare tactics of French police/authorities. They arrest a bigwig financier and let them sweat a bit for a day or so. (I sometimes wish US FBI/etc. did this too ;)). So it might be opportunity to buy (more).

I might be more concerned with succession than with the arrest, although who knows.

I sold most/all of my shares in ODET.PA. It is likely a mistake on price though, so don't follow me.  8)
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: no_free_lunch on April 26, 2018, 11:19:52 AM
I certainly hope it is just scare tactics.  This is definitely a jockey play, when he is out so am I.

It sounds like he was released from jail but this is just the beginning.  This whole process could play out over a lengthy time period.

Quote
What’s next for Bollore’s criminal case?

It’s unclear, and it could be many months -- or even years -- before we know. In the French legal system, charges are announced prior to any decision on whether to refer the case to trial and can be dropped later. His defense lawyers now get access to the case files underpinning the allegations, which they hadn’t seen so far. In the meantime, he remains at the helm of his company.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-26/why-bollore-criminal-case-resonates-in-france-africa-quicktake
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: Jurgis on April 26, 2018, 11:48:50 AM
This is definitely a jockey play, when he is out so am I.

So then what do you think about succession issue? I.e. his son taking over Vivendi already ( https://www.reuters.com/article/us-vivendi-agm/billionaire-bollore-anoints-son-yannick-as-new-vivendi-chairman-idUSKBN1HQ2I4 ) and other pieces - I think it was announced - is it next year or in two?
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: no_free_lunch on April 26, 2018, 01:59:00 PM
My plan was to sell when he officially hands things over.  With this type of personality you never know, it can take years.  I haven't seen anything official about when it is happening. 

As far as the link, it's not something I like to see to be honest but that's not enough for me to sell.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: Jurgis on April 26, 2018, 02:14:13 PM
OK. I think the "official" transfer was previously announced to be 2022, but with Vivendi news and the Africa case who knows.

Good luck.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: no_free_lunch on May 01, 2018, 11:35:07 AM
I am out.  This thing was always on the edge for me but with a criminal investigation, no I don`t want to deal with that.  It is still under-priced given the share structure but there are other opportunities with fewer issues.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: SI on June 11, 2018, 11:22:36 AM
Anyone have the HSBC downgrade from today?

Thanks!
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bolloré SA
Post by: John Hjorth on October 22, 2018, 04:02:49 PM
First of all, thank you to the CoBF members so far participating in this topic - lots of posts - so far - with exceptional high quality - again, thank you!

- - - o 0 o - - -

Somehow, this topic & investment here on CoBF has skipped my attention. [I'm sorry to say, I'm just such a slow catcher!] I have been spending the brother part of my yesterday [Sunday] reading up and studying this topic and looking at BOL.PA & ODET.PA.

It has appeal to me, but yes, there are issues, and yes, it's quite complicated, as already covered very well in this topic.

This topic basically went inactive end of April 2018. At that time BOL.PA traded at ~EUR 4.1. Today, it is around ~EUR 3.7.

- - - o 0 o - - -

Now to the issues:

Mr. Bolloré has been accused of using bribes in Africa related to obtaining rights to operate ports in a couple of African countries. He was detained for interrogation at that time back in April 2018. His public reaction to these allegations aren't covered so far in this topic.

I had to search quite a bit to find his public reaction, which you can read here (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/29/french-tycoon-vincent-bolloreblames-africa-corruption-charges/). Personally, I find this statement quite surprising, actually - by not blaiming the "system" Mr. Bolloré is subject to, but some kind of societal [political?] prejudice [please think history here!] - in his own country - with regard to Africa.

- No matter how you personally look at it - it tells at least me a lot about the person, and his headwind patterns, to approach this event like he did then. I haven't experienced that many persons in my life approaching such an event in personal life this way, when there are dire personal headwinds.

- - - o 0 o - - -

In short, I like him. But I may be wrong - absolutely wrong - on that assessment. [Position sizing comes to mind.]

- - - o 0 o - - -

I'm by far not well wandered in French politics. However I have a more than loose idea how things work there.

- - - o 0 o - - -

Wikipedia: Law of Jante (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_Jante).

Example:

L. E. Lundbergföretagen AB [January 26th 2017] : Information on preliminary investigation related to hunts arranged by Holmen (https://www.lundbergforetagen.se/en/press?page=/en/node/698).

Outcome:

L. E. Lundbergföretagen AB [December 17th 2017] : Investigation related to hunting arranged by Holmen discontinued (https://www.lundbergforetagen.se/en/press?page=/en/node/680).
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bolloré SA
Post by: John Hjorth on November 06, 2018, 08:43:50 AM
From the "What are you buying today?" topic today:

I've bought trackers in the following companies:

Bolloré SA [CoBF Investment Ideas topic (http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/bollore-(bol-pa)/)] [Company Website (http://www.bollore.com/en-us)] For my part, ODET.PA has to wait for now, ...


John,

My concern with Bollore is what happens after Vincent Bollore retires? Does he have the depth of management in place that BRK does?  Look forward to your thoughts.

cheers
Zorro

Zorrofan,

Right now, I'm unopinionated on that matter, because of lack of knowledge [<-rb has posted recently, that he thought I would do well in politics [ : - D ] - It translates to "I don't know."].

The only thing that I right now feel confident about, is that I will be entertained by studying Vincent Bolloré's doings in hindsight after reading the Wikipedia article about him. [I think it was the French one, that was the best.] It's about going basically from zero to where he is today with BOL.PA [& ODET.PA]. I simply can't help but admire deeply such an achievement.

On my way I'll post my comments & observations here ... - perhaps we can get this topic going again. [I sure understand why some of our fellow board members have pulled their feelers here.]


Your concerns appear both relevant and important.
Title: Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
Post by: SI on December 06, 2018, 10:39:01 AM
Anyone that could get the SocGen initiation, I would love a copy.