Author Topic: BYND - Beyond Meat  (Read 4115 times)

Castanza

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BYND - Beyond Meat
« on: June 10, 2019, 12:42:33 PM »
Need I say anything? up 600% since IPO. Is anyone shorting this? If not what are your opinions?

From the product standpoint it's actually pretty good. Tried a burger at Red Robin the other day. Their product pipeline is pretty impressive and from what I hear they are all pretty tasty and have good reviews across the board. But they do have some supply chain issues and even if they didn't I find it hard to justify any of the price movement. I can't help but correlate this to TLRY.

Either way I have no positions of any type.


Gregmal

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Re: BYND - Beyond Meat
« Reply #1 on: June 10, 2019, 12:57:07 PM »
Shorting longer dated OTM calls usually works well with stuff like this.

blainehodder

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Re: BYND - Beyond Meat
« Reply #2 on: June 10, 2019, 01:01:36 PM »
Product is great, valuation is extreme. Good story and low float trading. The company will certainly do well. Shareholders late to this run may not. The market is likely to be flooded with clones soon. From a consumer perspective that is great. Probably not so great for Beyond margins.

Hard to say at this point whether there is any real brand loyalty or if they are simply a first mover on a huge demographic trend. I personally like the products but would happily jump to a cheaper competitor.

The company would be wise to issue huge amounts of equity into this run and pad the balance sheet with massive amounts of cash to fuel operations and growth for years to come.

I wouldn’t invest long term at this level as I doubt it justifies any sane DCF assumptions.
 It is likely trade-able on short term moving averages and other very simple momo indicators. It is working out for longs so far!

Peter Lynch said to wait until turnarounds start to turnaround. That is a good motto in trading as well. I wouldn’t jump in short until it started to break down. No need to be a top calling genius to make money.
« Last Edit: June 10, 2019, 02:28:02 PM by blainehodder »

roark33

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Re: BYND - Beyond Meat
« Reply #3 on: June 10, 2019, 01:02:55 PM »
Yeah, well OTM calls have become ITM calls with BYND, I mean, you could have shorted like $160 calls last week when the stock was at 90 and now they would be in ITM, and most likely be exercised and force you to hold a short position with 100%+ borrowing costs.  I have no idea how to make money on this, besides going 200% long BYND...bcs it's going to the moon...:)

Saluki

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Re: BYND - Beyond Meat
« Reply #4 on: June 10, 2019, 01:23:29 PM »
The product is excellent.  My girlfriend (aka the "Warden") is a vegetarian and she has to try several places (whole foods, trader joes, YES organic) because it's always sold out.  When she spots it in the freezer, she will buy 6 or 7 packages of it at a time. 

The price is outrageous though--both for the stock and the product.  It costs more than actual beef, and the stock is trading at (according to yahoo finance) 83x sales.  I'm not crazy enough to buy it or brave enough to short it, i'll just watch from the sidelines. 
If it's important, do it every day. If it's not important, don't do it at all.  -Dan Gable

CorpRaider

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Re: BYND - Beyond Meat
« Reply #5 on: June 10, 2019, 06:15:50 PM »
The impossible burger is legit, had it twice (over the last month).  Gave up beef maybe 2 years ago.  Really nice to have a good burger again.

Just had a beyond meat sausage.  Not a fan.  Then again I don't like real sausage either.

I thought red robin had the impossible burger, not beyond meat.  They were sold out when we went (never been there before); we left and went to an expensive gastropub where they had the impossible burger in stock.  Read articles that impossible burger is hard to get right now because of the BK rollout.
« Last Edit: June 10, 2019, 06:19:00 PM by CorpRaider »

Castanza

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Re: BYND - Beyond Meat
« Reply #6 on: June 10, 2019, 07:05:09 PM »
The impossible burger is legit, had it twice (over the last month).  Gave up beef maybe 2 years ago.  Really nice to have a good burger again.

Just had a beyond meat sausage.  Not a fan.  Then again I don't like real sausage either.

I thought red robin had the impossible burger, not beyond meat.  They were sold out when we went (never been there before); we left and went to an expensive gastropub where they had the impossible burger in stock.  Read articles that impossible burger is hard to get right now because of the BK rollout.

LOL you're right...damn I'm an idiot. I did try the Beyond Burger at TGI Fridays. I guess I didn't really notice a difference. Personally I prefer real beef as there is a definitely a difference. I don't agree with the people who say you can't tell it's not real beef. You can tell, but he experience is still pleasant and enjoyable. However, I don't see myself ordering them long term. Even if they get the price down below beef. This is the first time a burger replacement product feels like a legit contender (as far as being able to sustain and build customer satisfaction.)

I wonder what's gonna happen to turkey burgers  :P 

SHDL

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Re: BYND - Beyond Meat
« Reply #7 on: June 11, 2019, 09:24:51 AM »
The valuation looks pretty crazy now but this does tick a lot of boxes on my “do not short” checklist.

- Growing extremely fast, still very small.
- Tiny float.
- Stock is really hard/costly to borrow.
- Great product, potentially wide moat.
- Clearly identifiable group of people who will happily buy the stock just because they like the product and the company’s “mission.”
- Obvious acquisition target for giant CPG companies that are struggling to ride current consumer trends and grow.

Gregmal

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Re: BYND - Beyond Meat
« Reply #8 on: June 11, 2019, 11:07:50 AM »
This whole thing just screams fad to me. Lets face it, there is a certain ambiguity to the TAM here, but realistically, only a fringe number of people will stick with this. Hardcore "manly" men, the BBQers and whatnot, will never switch. Then there is the "oh that's cool" crowd, probably like myself. I tried the Impossible Burger, and it was good. But I'm not getting it every time I go out and order a cheeseburger. At last, there is the health crowd. But from everything I have read, this burger is basically on par with beef. There is no real health benefit to it. So the only place, long term for this(after everyone has gotten over the "its cool I need to try one" thing), is the vegetarian/vegan who doesn't really care "that much" about their health.

These things aren't replacing Big Mac's and aren't taking over the world. There is nothing really stopping knocks offs from emerging, and its hard to really get comfortable with future valuations when the current multiple is 100x sales. What price/sales ration does Lamb Weston trade at? Thats maybe where I'd be interested.

That said, outside of selling OTM calls, I think stuff like LWAY and CLXT might be tertiary plays with way more upside should this trend continue.

rkbabang

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Re: BYND - Beyond Meat
« Reply #9 on: June 11, 2019, 12:21:02 PM »
This whole thing just screams fad to me. Lets face it, there is a certain ambiguity to the TAM here, but realistically, only a fringe number of people will stick with this. Hardcore "manly" men, the BBQers and whatnot, will never switch. Then there is the "oh that's cool" crowd, probably like myself. I tried the Impossible Burger, and it was good. But I'm not getting it every time I go out and order a cheeseburger. At last, there is the health crowd. But from everything I have read, this burger is basically on par with beef. There is no real health benefit to it. So the only place, long term for this(after everyone has gotten over the "its cool I need to try one" thing), is the vegetarian/vegan who doesn't really care "that much" about their health.

These things aren't replacing Big Mac's and aren't taking over the world. There is nothing really stopping knocks offs from emerging, and its hard to really get comfortable with future valuations when the current multiple is 100x sales. What price/sales ration does Lamb Weston trade at? Thats maybe where I'd be interested.

That said, outside of selling OTM calls, I think stuff like LWAY and CLXT might be tertiary plays with way more upside should this trend continue.


I agree with almost everything you've said except that it is on par with beef.  It contains Canola Oil (3rd ingredient) as well as sunflower oil.  Someone who wanted to stay away from high omega-6 oils would choose a beef burger over this for health reasons.  The same with version 2 of the impossible burger, which uses sunflower oil as its main fat. 

I haven't tried either of these, but I'll probably try them eventually just out of curiosity.

As far as the stock goes, I think it is blown way out of proportion.  I've spoke to a vegetarian that I know who does not want to try these because she doesn't want the experience of eating meat.  And if you are not a vegetarian, then beef is arguably healthier.  So unless these become extremely cheep so people save money by choosing these over meat, or change their recipes (which might effect taste), I don't see this as anything but a fad as well.

I'm waiting for the lab-grown real beef.