Author Topic: BYND - Beyond Meat  (Read 4120 times)

aws

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Re: BYND - Beyond Meat
« Reply #10 on: June 11, 2019, 02:30:55 PM »
IB has the borrow rate at 384% right now, well over 1% per day.  Hard to imagine making money unless you just caught a day like today randomly.


snow pea

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Re: BYND - Beyond Meat
« Reply #11 on: June 11, 2019, 04:11:22 PM »
I am a vegetarian and have eaten beyond burgers (as well as a couple of their other products) a few times.  I don't particularly like them because they seem too meat-like to me.  There are probably other vegetarians for whom being more meat-like is not an attractive feature, so that may also limit the market, but I suspect that we're not a large portion of the vegetarian population.  My partner, who is also a vegetarian, does enjoy them quite a bit.  As do most others I've talked to them about, both vegetarian and not.

SHDL

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Re: BYND - Beyond Meat
« Reply #12 on: June 11, 2019, 04:20:06 PM »
On the product, I wonder how people who donít eat beef for religious reasons feel about their burgers and sausages?  If this has the potential to do well in a place like, say, India, that changes things quite a bit.

CorpRaider

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Re: BYND - Beyond Meat
« Reply #13 on: June 11, 2019, 05:08:11 PM »
The big sales pitch, to my eye, is going to be environmental/sustainability (to include animal welfare).  I personally will probably eat an impossible burger one every month or two.  I'm not vegan or vegetarian.  I eat some poultry and fish.  I've seen some marketing data term for us flexi-vores or something like that.

Personally don't think the saturated fats content stuff will play outside of maybe boomer cardiologists.

Castanza

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Re: BYND - Beyond Meat
« Reply #14 on: June 11, 2019, 06:43:15 PM »
IB has the borrow rate at 384% right now, well over 1% per day.  Hard to imagine making money unless you just caught a day like today randomly.

Don't really play option that much. But do you think today's significant drop has anything to do with the "quiet period expiration"? That being said the IPO lockup is in Oct. Hard to imagine this bloat holding on that long, but it's not unreasonable to use those as potential target dates for shorts. I still don't have the cajones to do it. 

aws

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Re: BYND - Beyond Meat
« Reply #15 on: June 11, 2019, 08:03:27 PM »
IB has the borrow rate at 384% right now, well over 1% per day.  Hard to imagine making money unless you just caught a day like today randomly.

Don't really play option that much. But do you think today's significant drop has anything to do with the "quiet period expiration"? That being said the IPO lockup is in Oct. Hard to imagine this bloat holding on that long, but it's not unreasonable to use those as potential target dates for shorts. I still don't have the cajones to do it.

I don't think it was the quiet period, just the downgrade from JP Morgan on an obviously overheated stock.  I don't think there's any good way to profit from shorting for as long as the demand to short is so high.  Just like the borrow rate makes shorting the stock exorbitantly expensive, it also skews the put/call parity dramatically which makes options unlikely to be profitable.  For example, with the stock at 126 the November $125 puts were trading at 46 vs 18 for calls of the same strike even though it's the calls that are in the money.  If you buy the puts you need a 37% drop to breakeven, and if you short the call you get paid little relative to the volatility and risk getting blown out if the stock spikes and triggers early assignment, which then subjects you to the insane short borrow fee.

BG2008

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Re: BYND - Beyond Meat
« Reply #16 on: June 21, 2019, 04:49:22 PM »
BYND obviously trades at crazy multiples to revenue.  Let's not bother with P/FCF or EV/EBITDA.  But I have been tinkering with the thought that BYND's constraint on revenue growth is actually on the supply side as they can't keep up with demand.  What is interesting is that places like Burger King is rolling it out.  It is different when there is a small chain of 20 restaurants that want to put it on the menu.  But when Burger King want to roll it out to its foot print of 7,406 locations, the revenue will likely J Curve.  I am not saying that the valuation is defensible.  What I am saying is that the P/Sales is probably not as ridiculous as it actually looks. 

gfp

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Re: BYND - Beyond Meat
« Reply #17 on: June 21, 2019, 04:58:03 PM »
Burger King is rolling out Impossible Foodsí product. Itís a different company

BYND obviously trades at crazy multiples to revenue.  Let's not bother with P/FCF or EV/EBITDA.  But I have been tinkering with the thought that BYND's constraint on revenue growth is actually on the supply side as they can't keep up with demand.  What is interesting is that places like Burger King is rolling it out.  It is different when there is a small chain of 20 restaurants that want to put it on the menu.  But when Burger King want to roll it out to its foot print of 7,406 locations, the revenue will likely J Curve.  I am not saying that the valuation is defensible.  What I am saying is that the P/Sales is probably not as ridiculous as it actually looks.

BG2008

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Re: BYND - Beyond Meat
« Reply #18 on: June 21, 2019, 05:06:40 PM »
Burger King is rolling out Impossible Foodsí product. Itís a different company

BYND obviously trades at crazy multiples to revenue.  Let's not bother with P/FCF or EV/EBITDA.  But I have been tinkering with the thought that BYND's constraint on revenue growth is actually on the supply side as they can't keep up with demand.  What is interesting is that places like Burger King is rolling it out.  It is different when there is a small chain of 20 restaurants that want to put it on the menu.  But when Burger King want to roll it out to its foot print of 7,406 locations, the revenue will likely J Curve.  I am not saying that the valuation is defensible.  What I am saying is that the P/Sales is probably not as ridiculous as it actually looks.

Facepalm

BG2008

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Re: BYND - Beyond Meat
« Reply #19 on: June 21, 2019, 05:07:20 PM »
Burger King is rolling out Impossible Foodsí product. Itís a different company

BYND obviously trades at crazy multiples to revenue.  Let's not bother with P/FCF or EV/EBITDA.  But I have been tinkering with the thought that BYND's constraint on revenue growth is actually on the supply side as they can't keep up with demand.  What is interesting is that places like Burger King is rolling it out.  It is different when there is a small chain of 20 restaurants that want to put it on the menu.  But when Burger King want to roll it out to its foot print of 7,406 locations, the revenue will likely J Curve.  I am not saying that the valuation is defensible.  What I am saying is that the P/Sales is probably not as ridiculous as it actually looks.

Facepalm

Facepalm, but principle still applies while thinking about P/S of both Beyond and Impossible