Author Topic: C - Citibank  (Read 207870 times)

Dazel

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Re: C - Citibank
« Reply #660 on: November 19, 2018, 05:05:01 AM »


They will be looking to up their buy backs like B of A did last year and will do again this year with the Fed now. Discussions would be ongoing on their 10 months of profitability. By doing it this way they have no one scrutinizing how much they get in the okay for in capital returns. We discussed this before here but the time for these addition should come soon and allow them to take “more” advantage of these low share prices. Mr. Buffett sees it too....you will likely see him have to show Citi in his 13f next time it’s just dirt cheap and printing cash right now. You will also see him add to BAC and JPM...
Anyone thinking near term recession has to know there is no one more connected to the economy then him.


Spekulatius

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Re: C - Citibank
« Reply #661 on: November 19, 2018, 08:09:30 AM »
I think the regulators prefer buybacks, which are viewed as being easier to reduce when times get bad. We all know how loath companies are to cut a dividend.

I don’t know. Cutting dividend would be the companies problem, not the regulators.
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Viking

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Re: C - Citibank
« Reply #662 on: November 19, 2018, 08:49:06 AM »
I think the regulators prefer buybacks, which are viewed as being easier to reduce when times get bad. We all know how loath companies are to cut a dividend.

I don’t know. Cutting dividend would be the companies problem, not the regulators.

True. However, if a bank stops buying back shares (in an economic downturn) they will get little grief from investors. But if a bank reduces its dividend it will be punished by investors. So banks will not want to reduce their dividend at almost any cost. I think the regulators understand this and as a result would prefer companies to buy back stock over dividend.

longlake95

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Re: C - Citibank
« Reply #663 on: November 28, 2018, 12:47:30 PM »
dusted off the Citi file. I owned from Oct 2010 to Nov 17. Seems to be cheap again at 1x tangible book. I like the rising dividend and buyback combo. Can anyone add and color to digital strategy? The were recently voted world's best digital bank. Quite a feat - as they were measured against 300 global banks. Mobile customers up 24% year over year. Maybe the combination of a full court digital press and their significant EM exposure, which may pick-up going forward - there's value there that the market has/or won't recognize.

At the end of the day, can Citi get back to earning an ROA >1%? Then it's worth $100....possible?

John Hjorth

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Re: C - Citigroup Inc.
« Reply #664 on: December 23, 2018, 03:47:50 PM »
They will be looking to up their buy backs like B of A did last year and will do again this year with the Fed now. Discussions would be ongoing on their 10 months of profitability. By doing it this way they have no one scrutinizing how much they get in the okay for in capital returns. We discussed this before here but the time for these addition should come soon and allow them to take “more” advantage of these low share prices. Mr. Buffett sees it too....you will likely see him have to show Citi in his 13f next time it’s just dirt cheap and printing cash right now. You will also see him add to BAC and JPM...
Anyone thinking near term recession has to know there is no one more connected to the economy then him.

Posted by Viking in the BAC topic in the Investment Ideas forum :

John, given BAC was approved for $26 billion in total i am not expecting another one time increase like we saw last year. I gladly take it if it comes. It looks to me like bank shares are going to stay cheap so my guess is BAC will be happy to buy back about $5 billion per quater or close to 2% of shares outstanding. For patient multiyear investors it really is amazing how fast the share count is falling (it is ridiculous at Citi). I think this is a big reason Buffett likes them so much right now.

I think the big US banks are really misunderstood. So much about them has changed since 2008/2009. It will be interesting to see how they perform during the next recession. Moynihan has been telegraphing that BAC has been very conservative with its loans etc and that is why its reported growth is not as good as some peers; we will find out if this is true when the next recession hits and loan losses start to climb.

Dazel,

Since you posted that about a month ago [also ref. the post by Viking quoted above], your thoughts then has been - since then, more or less constantly - on my mind. How do you personally perceive the situation right now?

Thank you in advance.
« Last Edit: December 24, 2018, 02:49:04 AM by John Hjorth »
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fareastwarriors

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Re: C - Citibank
« Reply #665 on: January 11, 2019, 07:41:34 AM »

John Hjorth

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Re: C - Citigroup Inc.
« Reply #666 on: January 14, 2019, 11:58:04 AM »
C 2018Q4 & full year Quarterly Earnings Releases and Supplements out today.

Quote
... A volatile fourth quarter impacted some of our market sensitive businesses, particularly Fixed Income. However, our ICG accrual businesses – Treasury and Trade Solutions, Securities Services, Private Bank and Corporate Lending – continued their strong performance. And in Global Consumer Banking, we had good underlying growth in U.S. Branded Cards and solid performance from our franchise in Mexico where we have been investing. ...

That is visible in gross income. To me, basically as expected. Not flamboyant, not bad at all. My eyes are extremely focused on losses, which appear to be in control, without studying the losses in depth.

- - - o 0 o - - - -

No more time for reading available today - PAL tax time here in Denmark tomorrow.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2019, 12:21:04 PM by John Hjorth »
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai

ourkid8

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Re: C - Citigroup Inc.
« Reply #667 on: January 14, 2019, 12:21:10 PM »
You forgot to highlight one of the key metrics:

REPURCHASED 74 MILLION COMMON SHARES (212 MILLION IN FULL YEAR 2018) which is about 8.5% of the shares outstanding in 2018

C 2018Q4 & full year Quarterly Earnings Releases and Supplements out today.

Quote
... A volatile fourth quarter impacted some of our market sensitive businesses, particularly Fixed Income. However, our ICG accrual businesses – Treasury and Trade Solutions, Securities Services, Private Bank and Corporate Lending – continued their strong performance. And in Global Consumer Banking, we had good underlying growth in U.S. Branded Cards and solid performance from our franchise in Mexico where we have been investing. ...

That is visible in gross income. To me, basically as expected. Not flamboyant, not bad at all. My eyes are extremely focused on losses, which appear to be in control, without studying the losses in depth.

- - - o 0 o - - - -

No more time for reading available today - PAL tax time here in Denmark tomorrow.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2019, 01:27:37 PM by ourkid8 »

John Hjorth

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Re: C - Citigroup Inc.
« Reply #668 on: January 14, 2019, 12:28:02 PM »
Thanks, ourkid!

Yes, it's very important for the investment thesis here. Now we need some kind of overview of how hard C may have been frontloading the share buybacks in this CCAR cycle. 2018Q4 has been a great buyback quarter!
« Last Edit: January 14, 2019, 12:30:57 PM by John Hjorth »
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai

ourkid8

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Re: C - Citigroup Inc.
« Reply #669 on: January 14, 2019, 01:33:55 PM »
2017 Year end shares outstanding: 2,569.90

Q1 2018: 2549.9 (Reduced shares outstanding by 0.78%)
Q2 2018: 2516.6 (Reduced shares outstanding by 1.32%)
Q3 2018: 2442.1 (Reduced shares outstanding by 3.1%)
Q4 2018: 2368.5 (Reduced shares outstanding by 3.1%)

As you can see, they front loaded their buyback and repurchased 6.2% of the shares outstanding which is awesome! 

Thanks, ourkid!

Yes, it's very important for the investment thesis here. Now we need some kind of overview of how hard C may have been frontloading the share buybacks in this CCAR cycle. 2018Q4 has been a great buyback quarter!
« Last Edit: January 14, 2019, 01:37:47 PM by ourkid8 »