Author Topic: CHTR - Charter Communications  (Read 217413 times)

Liberty

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #870 on: February 04, 2019, 07:26:46 AM »
One thing to consider with pushing Verizon to get more aggressive is that past a certain point, you're shooting yourself in the foot. If you get them to pay a ton but they mostly do it in stock, you end up holding a crapload of stock that just overpaid for an asset so probably isn't going to get a great return on it. Would you rather own stock in the patsie that overpaid, or just keep your pure-play cable asset that is about to turn the corner on integration and gush FCF after years of hard work? You can always sell later if you really need to, but Malone made the mistake once of getting stuck with a ton of stock in the company that acquired him without him having control (when AT&T bought TCI at the top for a crazy price and then the stock tanked while Malone couldn't sell) and I think he'll think twice about it the next time.

Didn't this also happen with LILA/CWC? Most people on CoBF claim that Malone screwed LILA shareholders by selling CWC at inflated price. But he took LILA shares in the merger and those are down hugely since then (possibly at least partially because of inflated CWC price).

Yeah, that's why people think the CWC assets (undersea fibers and such) are being undervalued by the market. Time will tell, I guess. Or maybe Malone just made a mistake.
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vince

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #871 on: February 04, 2019, 08:59:10 AM »
One thing to consider with pushing Verizon to get more aggressive is that past a certain point, you're shooting yourself in the foot. If you get them to pay a ton but they mostly do it in stock, you end up holding a crapload of stock that just overpaid for an asset so probably isn't going to get a great return on it. Would you rather own stock in the patsie that overpaid, or just keep your pure-play cable asset that is about to turn the corner on integration and gush FCF after years of hard work? You can always sell later if you really need to, but Malone made the mistake once of getting stuck with a ton of stock in the company that acquired him without him having control (when AT&T bought TCI at the top for a crazy price and then the stock tanked while Malone couldn't sell) and I think he'll think twice about it the next time.


Didn't this also happen with LILA/CWC? Most people on CoBF claim that Malone screwed LILA shareholders by selling CWC at inflated price. But he took LILA shares in the merger and those are down hugely since then (possibly at least partially because of inflated CWC price).

Yeah, that's why people think the CWC assets (undersea fibers and such) are being undervalued by the market. Time will tell, I guess. Or maybe Malone just made a mistake.

KJP

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #872 on: February 05, 2019, 07:34:47 AM »
I have found the comparisons between Charter and Comcast useful in thinking about what Charter's financials could look like a few years down the line.  Here's an update on that topic from someone with a similar viewpoint:  http://yetanothervalueblog.com/2019/02/chtr-earnings-were-nice-but-its-still-way-too-cheap.html

Munger_Disciple

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #873 on: February 05, 2019, 02:05:10 PM »
Liberty,

KJP posted the same link in the prior post.

-MD

walkie518

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #874 on: February 11, 2019, 09:33:34 AM »
I have found the comparisons between Charter and Comcast useful in thinking about what Charter's financials could look like a few years down the line.  Here's an update on that topic from someone with a similar viewpoint:  http://yetanothervalueblog.com/2019/02/chtr-earnings-were-nice-but-its-still-way-too-cheap.html
I don't understand the market selling off CHTR since the spike...maybe short-termism has taken hold for now?

I would think sideways movement would be more likely, unless the spike is being used for another purpose...perhaps they stopped buy backs in anticipation that price declines will help get better shareholder value? 

Liberty

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #875 on: February 11, 2019, 10:15:34 AM »
I have found the comparisons between Charter and Comcast useful in thinking about what Charter's financials could look like a few years down the line.  Here's an update on that topic from someone with a similar viewpoint:  http://yetanothervalueblog.com/2019/02/chtr-earnings-were-nice-but-its-still-way-too-cheap.html
I don't understand the market selling off CHTR since the spike...maybe short-termism has taken hold for now?

I would think sideways movement would be more likely, unless the spike is being used for another purpose...perhaps they stopped buy backs in anticipation that price declines will help get better shareholder value?

Movements this short-term are almost all noise and no signal. CMCSA is also down, so probably just moving together.
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | The importance of saying 'oops'