Author Topic: CHTR - Charter Communications  (Read 263147 times)

Liberty

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #870 on: February 04, 2019, 07:26:46 AM »
One thing to consider with pushing Verizon to get more aggressive is that past a certain point, you're shooting yourself in the foot. If you get them to pay a ton but they mostly do it in stock, you end up holding a crapload of stock that just overpaid for an asset so probably isn't going to get a great return on it. Would you rather own stock in the patsie that overpaid, or just keep your pure-play cable asset that is about to turn the corner on integration and gush FCF after years of hard work? You can always sell later if you really need to, but Malone made the mistake once of getting stuck with a ton of stock in the company that acquired him without him having control (when AT&T bought TCI at the top for a crazy price and then the stock tanked while Malone couldn't sell) and I think he'll think twice about it the next time.

Didn't this also happen with LILA/CWC? Most people on CoBF claim that Malone screwed LILA shareholders by selling CWC at inflated price. But he took LILA shares in the merger and those are down hugely since then (possibly at least partially because of inflated CWC price).

Yeah, that's why people think the CWC assets (undersea fibers and such) are being undervalued by the market. Time will tell, I guess. Or maybe Malone just made a mistake.
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vince

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #871 on: February 04, 2019, 08:59:10 AM »
One thing to consider with pushing Verizon to get more aggressive is that past a certain point, you're shooting yourself in the foot. If you get them to pay a ton but they mostly do it in stock, you end up holding a crapload of stock that just overpaid for an asset so probably isn't going to get a great return on it. Would you rather own stock in the patsie that overpaid, or just keep your pure-play cable asset that is about to turn the corner on integration and gush FCF after years of hard work? You can always sell later if you really need to, but Malone made the mistake once of getting stuck with a ton of stock in the company that acquired him without him having control (when AT&T bought TCI at the top for a crazy price and then the stock tanked while Malone couldn't sell) and I think he'll think twice about it the next time.


Didn't this also happen with LILA/CWC? Most people on CoBF claim that Malone screwed LILA shareholders by selling CWC at inflated price. But he took LILA shares in the merger and those are down hugely since then (possibly at least partially because of inflated CWC price).

Yeah, that's why people think the CWC assets (undersea fibers and such) are being undervalued by the market. Time will tell, I guess. Or maybe Malone just made a mistake.

KJP

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #872 on: February 05, 2019, 07:34:47 AM »
I have found the comparisons between Charter and Comcast useful in thinking about what Charter's financials could look like a few years down the line.  Here's an update on that topic from someone with a similar viewpoint:  http://yetanothervalueblog.com/2019/02/chtr-earnings-were-nice-but-its-still-way-too-cheap.html

Munger_Disciple

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #873 on: February 05, 2019, 02:05:10 PM »
Liberty,

KJP posted the same link in the prior post.

-MD

walkie518

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #874 on: February 11, 2019, 09:33:34 AM »
I have found the comparisons between Charter and Comcast useful in thinking about what Charter's financials could look like a few years down the line.  Here's an update on that topic from someone with a similar viewpoint:  http://yetanothervalueblog.com/2019/02/chtr-earnings-were-nice-but-its-still-way-too-cheap.html
I don't understand the market selling off CHTR since the spike...maybe short-termism has taken hold for now?

I would think sideways movement would be more likely, unless the spike is being used for another purpose...perhaps they stopped buy backs in anticipation that price declines will help get better shareholder value? 

Liberty

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #875 on: February 11, 2019, 10:15:34 AM »
I have found the comparisons between Charter and Comcast useful in thinking about what Charter's financials could look like a few years down the line.  Here's an update on that topic from someone with a similar viewpoint:  http://yetanothervalueblog.com/2019/02/chtr-earnings-were-nice-but-its-still-way-too-cheap.html
I don't understand the market selling off CHTR since the spike...maybe short-termism has taken hold for now?

I would think sideways movement would be more likely, unless the spike is being used for another purpose...perhaps they stopped buy backs in anticipation that price declines will help get better shareholder value?

Movements this short-term are almost all noise and no signal. CMCSA is also down, so probably just moving together.
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dwy000

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #876 on: March 08, 2019, 08:58:47 AM »
T-Mobile is certainly making a lot of claims about what it will offer to compete with in home broadband post-merger with Sprint.  I'm not sure how they can promise to be cheaper than the cable companies when they don't know what pricing will be in 2-3 years.  Certainly if you're trying to pay for a merger as well as a massive infrastructure build out for 5G it seems silly to get into a price war with incumbents who already have the infrastructure as well as the customer relationship. 

I suspect this is a lot of promises to get the merger approved and then what happens beyond that is the old bait-and-switch.

https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/t-mobile-pledges-to-change-cableopoly-home-broadband-service

vince

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #877 on: March 08, 2019, 05:27:40 PM »
T-Mobile is certainly making a lot of claims about what it will offer to compete with in home broadband post-merger with Sprint.  I'm not sure how they can promise to be cheaper than the cable companies when they don't know what pricing will be in 2-3 years.  Certainly if you're trying to pay for a merger as well as a massive infrastructure build out for 5G it seems silly to get into a price war with incumbents who already have the infrastructure as well as the customer relationship. 

I suspect this is a lot of promises to get the merger approved and then what happens beyond that is the old bait-and-switch.

https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/t-mobile-pledges-to-change-cableopoly-home-broadband-service


I think cable fans will truly enjoy this article from fierce wireless .....Wireless
Marek’s Take: Will fixed 5G be a broadband savior for wireless operators? Dont know how to provide a link.  What I dont understand is why would the ceo's of AT&T and Verizon boast so loudly and confidently about their fixed 5G when they know damn well that it is not a competitive option. according to the article their tone and actions clearly show that the realities of 5G are proving to be more complicated than originally thought

DooDiligence

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #878 on: March 08, 2019, 05:58:21 PM »
T-Mobile is certainly making a lot of claims about what it will offer to compete with in home broadband post-merger with Sprint.  I'm not sure how they can promise to be cheaper than the cable companies when they don't know what pricing will be in 2-3 years.  Certainly if you're trying to pay for a merger as well as a massive infrastructure build out for 5G it seems silly to get into a price war with incumbents who already have the infrastructure as well as the customer relationship. 

I suspect this is a lot of promises to get the merger approved and then what happens beyond that is the old bait-and-switch.

https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/t-mobile-pledges-to-change-cableopoly-home-broadband-service


I think cable fans will truly enjoy this article from fierce wireless .....Wireless
Marek’s Take: Will fixed 5G be a broadband savior for wireless operators? Dont know how to provide a link.  What I dont understand is why would the ceo's of AT&T and Verizon boast so loudly and confidently about their fixed 5G when they know damn well that it is not a competitive option. according to the article their tone and actions clearly show that the realities of 5G are proving to be more complicated than originally thought

Isn't the hype mainly directed at potential customers?
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WayWardCloud

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #879 on: March 09, 2019, 04:10:39 AM »
T-Mobile is certainly making a lot of claims about what it will offer to compete with in home broadband post-merger with Sprint.  I'm not sure how they can promise to be cheaper than the cable companies when they don't know what pricing will be in 2-3 years.  Certainly if you're trying to pay for a merger as well as a massive infrastructure build out for 5G it seems silly to get into a price war with incumbents who already have the infrastructure as well as the customer relationship. 

I suspect this is a lot of promises to get the merger approved and then what happens beyond that is the old bait-and-switch.

https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/t-mobile-pledges-to-change-cableopoly-home-broadband-service


I think cable fans will truly enjoy this article from fierce wireless .....Wireless
Marek’s Take: Will fixed 5G be a broadband savior for wireless operators? Dont know how to provide a link.  What I dont understand is why would the ceo's of AT&T and Verizon boast so loudly and confidently about their fixed 5G when they know damn well that it is not a competitive option. according to the article their tone and actions clearly show that the realities of 5G are proving to be more complicated than originally thought

Isn't the hype mainly directed at potential customers?

Maybe I'm wrong but I don't see customers caring at all about 5G around me. There's no available 5G, no compatible handsets and no apps that require faster speed yet... So maybe in 1-3 years people will start caring but then why are telcos so vocal about it now?
I can't speak for Vince but it seems to me that the hype comes from a desire to please the regulator in the case of Sprint and T-Mobile. For Verizon and ATT I believe they're mostly trying to keep Charter and Comcast's stocks down (fear of home 5G) so that they can get better terms when the inevitable fixe-mobile convergence merger talks start again.