Author Topic: CHTR - Charter Communications  (Read 160857 times)

Liberty

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walkie518

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #201 on: April 04, 2018, 09:09:39 AM »
Hey Walkie,

lots of good points on wireless but not a material part of my valuation.  Dont really know how verizon squeezes them, they have a mvno agreement.  my understanding is our mvno usage based costs will be minimal because most of bits on wifi anyway.  in addition, it is not going to be a material profit source when viewed as a sole business,  but will lower churn (which would be material).  in my mind, if it is successful, it will drive consolidation on terms favaorable to cable.  but i have to admit i havent spent lots of time on the wireless opportunity.  if it disappeared tomorrow it wouldnt change my valuation

I don't know how others on this forum feel, but convergence and its synergies at (better) scale are key parts to my Charter thesis. 

Spectrum serves my office, which pays double for nearly the same service I have at home.  Spectrum has been moving business from annual to month/month contracts with teaser rates. 

What happens when Spectrum wants to lock-in pricing?  What happens when Spectrum wants to hike prices by 10%?  They will certainly get it, but is this short-term thinking?

How hard will it be when business customers have broadband and mobile devices with Spectrum (voice and video being less important) to leave?  What happens to those month/month agreements and how much additional revenues will be generated?  How well does Charter reduce churn with these offerings?

The MVNO with Verizon will juice cash flow b/c the pipes are the same, but new revenue is funneled to Charter instead of Verizon.  It's likely Charter undercuts Verizon's pricing, but I speculate that over time they come in line. 

On the other hand, building the infrastructure that Charter already has for 5G seems like a waste for many wireless carriers?  Maybe there will be increasing numbers of these kinds of agreements among the other cable providers. 

In the least, the next few years will be very interesting for cable and wireless companies. 


walkie518

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #202 on: April 04, 2018, 05:28:20 PM »
Charter prices $2.5B in debt to roll over Time Warner Cable notes https://seekingalpha.com/news/3343745?source=ansh $CHTR

Clear positive...

BG2008

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #203 on: April 04, 2018, 07:24:30 PM »
$800mm of 20 year debt at slightly higher yield than 5.375% and $1.7bn of 30 year debt at slight higher than 5.75% replacing $2b in 6.75% due 2018.  Wow. 

gokou3

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #204 on: April 04, 2018, 08:25:25 PM »
I find it interesting that the TWC yields fluctuate so much over a short span around the GFC..

BG2008

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #205 on: April 04, 2018, 10:22:53 PM »
I find it interesting that the TWC yields fluctuate so much over a short span around the GFC..

I think late 2008 and early 2009 were peak pessimism.  Capital market were essentially closed. 

Spekulatius

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #206 on: April 05, 2018, 03:59:45 AM »
I find it interesting that the TWC yields fluctuate so much over a short span around the GFC..

These times were crazy. You could by lower investment grade bonds for mid teens yields, if you looked around. Also, the financing side is one of the issues with Malone, he runs hothead entities he controls with fairly high leverage and not very “creditor friendly” with this assets shifting around and deals. Few people care now, but when credit gets tight, the remaining bond buyers will, IMO.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

atbed

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #207 on: April 14, 2018, 02:44:53 PM »
I had some massive problems with our phone service with one of the cable guys this week. Every time we lose cable internet service, we lose home phone service. I'm not picking on CHTR here specifically (just choosing to post here), because it probably applies to all cable providers.

IMO VOIP phone service through one of the cable providers is a complete rip-off. We are in the process of portering over our phone number from a cable provider to google voice (with a pit stop through T-Mobile). Combining phone/internet just seems like a marketing play to juice pricing.

Not sure how material this is. But curious what other board members think.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2018, 02:47:39 PM by atbed »

Spekulatius

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #208 on: April 14, 2018, 03:24:02 PM »
I had some massive problems with our phone service with one of the cable guys this week. Every time we lose cable internet service, we lose home phone service. I'm not picking on CHTR here specifically (just choosing to post here), because it probably applies to all cable providers.

IMO VOIP phone service through one of the cable providers is a complete rip-off. We are in the process of portering over our phone number from a cable provider to google voice (with a pit stop through T-Mobile). Combining phone/internet just seems like a marketing play to juice pricing.

Not sure how material this is. But curious what other board members think.

You don’t really pay for phone it’s cable providers, in my case the tripple play offering (with phone) was cheaper than the double play after the rebates. We never used the phone since we were happy with Ooma and didn’t feel like changing.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

vince

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #209 on: April 15, 2018, 03:19:31 PM »
Chtr being offered at very good prices on CURRENT ebitda where current ebitda is not representative of potential future ebitda.  Said another way, current multiple is basically a good cash on cash return with no growth.  That is a very nice margin of safety IMO.  Wish they had more capacity to take out more equity at these prices