Author Topic: CHTR - Charter Communications  (Read 154673 times)

Liberty

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #460 on: May 25, 2018, 03:03:57 PM »
I frequently see people complaining about Comcast's 1-terabyte/month caps, so some people use a lot of bandwidth. I'm guessing houses with parents and teenagers all streaming Netflix/Youtube/Amazon Video/Twitch every day, where everybody has multiple devices, game consoles and gaming PCs downloading large games and updates frequently, etc...
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dwy000

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #461 on: May 25, 2018, 04:23:45 PM »
Once you have 5G on mobile devices, I would think that usage can shoot up 100x current levels. Many people might be willing to pay up for unlimited wireless downloads.

Can 5G meet the needs of mobile users if usage does increase 100x and still have enough bandwidth to meet wireless internet to customers?

Vinod

I dont know.  When I hear of increasing bandwith 100x, I think to myself the Clayton Christensen idea of how established players often over innovate in an area where customers needs are already fully satiated.  I think most people can't find use for the bandwidth that they already have.

Let me explain what I was trying to get at.

Currently most people have about 1 or 2 GB data limit  per device on their mobile plans (roughly a 8 GB plan for 4 devices in family). But people use up 200 GB to 500 GB per family on their Internet service.

Often people wait until they have a Wi-Fi connection to watch videos, etc. that require high bandwidth. If 5G enables mobile carriers to offer very high data limits, then it is likely that people would be using up a whole lot more data.

So using up 50 GB to 100 GB data per month on a mobile device is not really that big of a leap. Hence my question.

Thanks

Vinod

That might be a Canadian thing.  Unlimited is pretty much the new norm in the US (yes, you can get cheaper limited plans but most of the carriers compete on the basis of unlimited).

vinod1

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #462 on: May 25, 2018, 05:02:11 PM »
I am in US. :)

Unlimited plans are catching on but most of the people I know are still on limited data plans. Limited sample size.

Vinod
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scorpioncapital

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #463 on: May 26, 2018, 02:00:09 AM »
What do you think about the strategy of selling puts on GLIBA around $30 to $35 for december? Worst case you get Charter proxy at another 20-25% discount already depressed valuation and base case you get 15-19% return on collateral because put options on low priced stocks tend to be lower collateral vs cost..plus if you get put it's easier to buy shares at $35 then Charter at $208? I've only seen this opportunity available on stocks like LBTYA, GLIBA, DISCK, maybe a reason Malone keeps the share price so low? You also have significant buybacks. Already at $330+, 12% of Charter float was retired over the last year. At $215 to $270 I would imagine they would want to retire another 15% this year. At this rate, I cannot imagine the share price won't be sustained since in 5 years 100% of the shares will be repurchased!

« Last Edit: May 26, 2018, 02:09:39 AM by scorpioncapital »

Spekulatius

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #464 on: May 26, 2018, 03:45:46 AM »
Quote
t $215 to $270 I would imagine they would want to retire another 15% this year. At this rate, I cannot imagine the share price won't be sustained since in 5 years 100% of the shares will be repurchased

Wrong math. If CHTR retires 15% of their nshares avery year, they end up with 0.85^7 or ~32% of their shares left after 7 years. The law of smaller numbers 8).
« Last Edit: May 26, 2018, 07:15:19 AM by Spekulatius »
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cameronfen

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #465 on: May 26, 2018, 05:51:15 AM »
Once you have 5G on mobile devices, I would think that usage can shoot up 100x current levels. Many people might be willing to pay up for unlimited wireless downloads.

Can 5G meet the needs of mobile users if usage does increase 100x and still have enough bandwidth to meet wireless internet to customers?

Vinod

I dont know.  When I hear of increasing bandwith 100x, I think to myself the Clayton Christensen idea of how established players often over innovate in an area where customers needs are already fully satiated.  I think most people can't find use for the bandwidth that they already have.

Let me explain what I was trying to get at.

Currently most people have about 1 or 2 GB data limit  per device on their mobile plans (roughly a 8 GB plan for 4 devices in family). But people use up 200 GB to 500 GB per family on their Internet service.

Often people wait until they have a Wi-Fi connection to watch videos, etc. that require high bandwidth. If 5G enables mobile carriers to offer very high data limits, then it is likely that people would be using up a whole lot more data.

So using up 50 GB to 100 GB data per month on a mobile device is not really that big of a leap. Hence my question.

Thanks

Vinod

I thinl you are misunderstanding bandwith.  1 gbps means you get 1/8 gigbytes of download speed per second.  Thus to download 100 GB of information you would only need like 800 seconds or 13 minutes of being online, which is much faster than is necassary to stream even 4k (hulu requires only 15 mbps for streaming one 4k video so you would need 80 streamers on the same line to theoretically max the capcity of 1gbps download speed) .  Now thats the optimal speed and often download speeds are not quite fast, but even if it took you an hour or two to download 100 GB over a whole month that is much more bandwidth than needed. 


cameronfen

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #466 on: May 26, 2018, 06:09:55 AM »
So if you are talking about total data caps, I dont think wireless broadband/5g will have that problem.  Bandwidth is proportional to frequency of spectrum divided by number of people using it per cell.  Since the fequency of mmwave is like 50 times larger, and the radius of small cells are 100x smaller at least, this works out 5000x more bandwidth per person.  Because there is so much more bandwidth per person, telecos wont have to ration data nearly as much, permitting 1 Tb of data to be downloaded per month which basically makes it suitible for wireless broadband.  The problem is that 5g while not lacking in bandwidth, may be slow in terms of latency.  Charter says 80% of traffic goes through fiber backhual already so in a sense it seems like latency can be addressed, however America Movil seems to think otherwise. 

glorysk87

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #467 on: May 27, 2018, 06:52:40 PM »
Lots of talk re: AT&T and their 5G fixed wireless tech. But has anyone done the work? Here is a quote straight from an AT&T transcript:

"With regard to the fixed 5G wireless, if you will, our tests have shown it can be done. We can do it. The opportunity there is something that we have to prove out. We're not as excited about the business case. It's not as compelling yet for us as it may be for some. The reason we don't see that, if you will. The question is to get that fixed wireless through to residential, you still have to have backhaul from where the - the 1,000 feet away, the 1,500 feet away, and you still have to have that backhaul infrastructure. So that could be depending upon your ability to successfully pick who's going to buy and how much we're going to need is going to be a very tricky business case."

Basically there are two takeaways. First, is that regardless of how well your small cell fixed wireless broadband products perform, you still need a ton of fiber backhaul in order to release a product on a large scale. Second, is that (reading between the lines), AT&T is basically saying the IRR's on 5G FWB are not compelling. This idea is supported by many independent studies. The most optimistic I've seen have negligible positive IRRs on par with fiber to the home. However, most model's I've seen have negative IRR's.

As it stands now, 5G as a replacement for cable broadband is not a major threat outside of some select dense urban areas.

FiveSigma

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #468 on: May 27, 2018, 08:22:02 PM »
glorysk87,

Can you point us to any of the studies on 5G FWB IRRs? Or at least name the reports and providers?

I and probably others were looking for some quantitative analysis on how much this will cost.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2018, 05:57:44 AM by FiveSigma »

scorpioncapital

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Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #469 on: May 28, 2018, 02:51:49 AM »
What is the difference between fixed wireless broadband and roaming WiFi network of cable providers ? Seems the hype is high but I can't seem to tell the difference.