Author Topic: CHTR - Charter Communications  (Read 154054 times)

DooDiligence

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1397
  • ♪ 🎶 ♫ ♪ 🎶 ♫
Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #630 on: September 10, 2018, 04:59:00 AM »
“We’re wholesaling network capacity from a wireless carrier for the broad umbrella coverage of mobility service, but we want to put as much of our traffic onto our own WiFi infrastructure as possible,” Cowden said.

https://www.multichannel.com/news/small-cells-play-big-role-charter-s-mobile-future-418196

---

https://www.fiercewireless.com/tech/charter-to-expand-lte-small-cell-tests-to-new-york-city-los-angeles

---

Does anyone think that Charter will pop up in the 5G spectrum auction this November.
Can they afford to start building out their own small cell network?
Should I just shut up about this?
« Last Edit: September 10, 2018, 05:04:00 AM by DooDiligence »
(Healthcare 42.9% - ABC BBH CVS DVA EW NVO) | (BRK.B - 14.8%) | (Media & Communication 12.6% - CHTR CMCSA DIS)

(Drinkers & Smokers 13.8% - ABEV MO) | (Auto's & Oil 10.3% - GPC VDE) | (Tech & Comms 5.5% - AAPL SFTBY)

(%'s held @ MV 9/04, excludes $)

[prepared 2 wait]

https://twitter.com/tunawish


cameronfen

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 224
Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #631 on: September 10, 2018, 05:04:13 AM »
I see the market though already starting to digest the idea of 5g as another market entrant competing with cable.

If the market is beginning to digest this threat and price it into assets, wouldnít the market also price the good news of Verizon/AT&T/Sprint-T Mobile gaining share from cable into their stock prices? Where is the evidence of that?

Well it likely will increase volatility (as broadband is also trying to get in mobile) so it could put downward pressure on telecoms as well. 

AdjustedEarnings

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 5
Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #632 on: September 11, 2018, 02:35:15 PM »
Tom Rutledge's 2016 equity award (which pays out big until 2022) has been much discussed in places where CHTR is a topic of conversation (that is to say, value investing meetings/blogs/forums and John Malone Groupie meetings/blogs/forums). But I had not seen it quantified, so I did a calculation. At the very maximum, it pays $582 million to Rutledge if a price of $564.04 is achieved on the CHTR equity, within the time limit of the award. Details/assumptions of the calculation are at the link below and have attempted to attach the graphic here (I'm new to this blog so I'm not sure whether and how this attachment will show):

http://adjustedearnings.blogspot.com/2018/09/tom-rutledges-chtr-infamous-equity.html

Please let me know with your questions and/or feedback. Thanks!

Disclosure: Long CHTR (through LBRDK).

undervalued

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 334
Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #633 on: September 12, 2018, 04:34:41 PM »
Verizon's $70 5G plan https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2018/09/verizon-5g-home-internet-70month-300mbps-to-1gbps-speeds-no-data-caps/. For some reason I don't trust their unlimited data plan.

https://www.verizon.com/about/news/5g-here

5G Home is built on the worldís first and only 5G Ultra Wideband network
Verizon 5G Home is unique because itís built on Verizonís 5G Ultra Wideband network. 5G is only as good as the network itís built on and Verizonís 5G Ultra Wideband network is the only 5G network that combines:

  • End-to-end deep fiber resources throughout the network
  • A large deployment of small cells
  • Critical, and best-in-class spectrum holdings, particularly in the millimeter wave bands, the only spectrum with the bandwidth to realize the full 5G potential for capacity, throughput and latency
« Last Edit: September 12, 2018, 04:39:18 PM by undervalued »
Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it. - Will Rogers

Liberty

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10144
  • twitter.com/libertyRPF
    • twitter.com/libertyRPF
Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #634 on: September 12, 2018, 04:59:04 PM »
I see the market though already starting to digest the idea of 5g as another market entrant competing with cable.

If the market is beginning to digest this threat and price it into assets, wouldnít the market also price the good news of Verizon/AT&T/Sprint-T Mobile gaining share from cable into their stock prices? Where is the evidence of that?

Well it likely will increase volatility (as broadband is also trying to get in mobile) so it could put downward pressure on telecoms as well.

If the telecoms are getting terrible ROIC on their plans to overbuild the whole country to compete with cable, pressure on their stocks might be the expected response.
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | Interesting podcast on sleep science

jmp8822

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 149
Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #635 on: September 12, 2018, 05:53:27 PM »
Verizon's $70 5G plan https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2018/09/verizon-5g-home-internet-70month-300mbps-to-1gbps-speeds-no-data-caps/. For some reason I don't trust their unlimited data plan.

https://www.verizon.com/about/news/5g-here

5G Home is built on the worldís first and only 5G Ultra Wideband network
Verizon 5G Home is unique because itís built on Verizonís 5G Ultra Wideband network. 5G is only as good as the network itís built on and Verizonís 5G Ultra Wideband network is the only 5G network that combines:

  • End-to-end deep fiber resources throughout the network
  • A large deployment of small cells
  • Critical, and best-in-class spectrum holdings, particularly in the millimeter wave bands, the only spectrum with the bandwidth to realize the full 5G potential for capacity, throughput and latency

From the arstechnica article above:

"Early users of the service in those four cities will get it for free for the first three months. "After that introductory period, current Verizon Wireless customers with a qualifying smartphone plan will pay $50 per month for the service, while non-Verizon Wireless customers will pay $70 per month," Verizon said. "This monthly charge includes all taxes and fees, and does not require an annual contract. There are no additional hardware costs.""

After seeing the price of $50 per month for current Verizon customers, I did some random looking at Sacramento pricing on regular cable and internet and fiber offerings.  All were priced at a minimum of $60 for roughly similar speeds, up to $80 per month. So, all traditional cable companies presumably will need to lower their prices for new customers if they intend to compete with Verizon over time.  And if Verizon is $50/month for existing wireless customers as the first entrant, I wonder what Sprint/T-Mobile might be priced at?  It seems to me that this is a substantial risk to traditional cable internet - will be interesting to watch cable internet subscriber numbers.

Also, the other issue that cable companies could have - seamless 5G with a wireless phone (once they come out next year) could be near.  I.e. no signing in to wireless at a friends house - you might already have unlimited 5G in that given neighborhood.  Anytime something is cheaper/similar pricing and has other benefits, perhaps many might start moving to the new technology?

Liberty

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10144
  • twitter.com/libertyRPF
    • twitter.com/libertyRPF
Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #636 on: September 13, 2018, 06:21:13 AM »
Based on the ANH filing, it looks like CHTR bought back a little less than 1% of shares outstanding during the past month.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/914545/000089924318024245/xslF345X03/doc4.xml
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | Interesting podcast on sleep science

AdjustedEarnings

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 5
Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #637 on: September 13, 2018, 04:47:37 PM »
Good presentation by Tom today at GS Communacopia. Loved the part where he goes, "fixed wireless is basically a cable overbuild with a more expensive drop". I had to shut my office door to laugh properly at the appropriate volume. Not because I disagree with him (in fact, I do agree) but because he threw so much shade at VZ's new announcement (without mentioning them of course). Aside from how funny it was, I do believe it really is true and important to the long thesis. FWA is not an immediate threat and perhaps not a long-term one either.

He also gave some overlap statistics, namely the amount of overlap with CHTR being about 8% after 10 years, EVEN IF fixed wireless were to prove to be a threat. I'm not sure how he came up with that number, given VZ has not announced all of its 30 mm sub geographies. Perhaps based simply on VZ's fiber coverage.

Would love to hear feedback/opinions from the group.

Disclosure: Long LBRDK

chrispy

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 196
Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #638 on: September 14, 2018, 05:39:57 AM »
It is the right thing to do.. but are they only doing it because of Verizon's messup out west?

https://www.wraltechwire.com/2018/09/12/spectrum-to-open-more-than-5000-wifi-hot-spots-to-all-wireless-users/

DooDiligence

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1397
  • ♪ 🎶 ♫ ♪ 🎶 ♫
Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Reply #639 on: September 14, 2018, 08:22:33 AM »
It is the right thing to do.. but are they only doing it because of Verizon's messup out west?

https://www.wraltechwire.com/2018/09/12/spectrum-to-open-more-than-5000-wifi-hot-spots-to-all-wireless-users/

Who cares, it's great PR.
(Healthcare 42.9% - ABC BBH CVS DVA EW NVO) | (BRK.B - 14.8%) | (Media & Communication 12.6% - CHTR CMCSA DIS)

(Drinkers & Smokers 13.8% - ABEV MO) | (Auto's & Oil 10.3% - GPC VDE) | (Tech & Comms 5.5% - AAPL SFTBY)

(%'s held @ MV 9/04, excludes $)

[prepared 2 wait]

https://twitter.com/tunawish