Author Topic: CMG - Chipotle  (Read 101728 times)

abcd

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aceskc

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Re: CMG - Chipotle
« Reply #351 on: February 13, 2018, 08:31:38 PM »
$100 turnaround valuation seems harsh...CMG reported ~6 in reported earnings...adjusting for growth capex (~143M) and card breach one time payment (30M) , you get an after tax net earnings of an additional ~4.. So we have ~10 adj. eps, ~4.5B revenue that grew 15%, ~18 net cash per share, ~3.3% share buyback.  Bias Disclaimer: Im a buyer here.

In addtion,  'Breakfast daypart' also might be the hidden ace up his sleeve, which could catalyze SSS , even absent any successful menu innovation initiatives.
"Under his leadership, he successfully repositioned Taco Bell as a lifestyle brand and successfully launched numerous product initiatives, including the new breakfast daypart, the fastest growing daypart in the industry. He transformed Taco Bell into a social media leader and revolutionized its digital approach through mobile ordering and payment across their 7,000 restaurants. He also created a people-centric innovation culture that has been recognized throughout the industry."


johnny

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Re: CMG - Chipotle
« Reply #352 on: February 13, 2018, 08:49:21 PM »
They've been working (intermittently) on breakfast for years, and developed nothing. Might be a bit gun-jumpy to assume he's coming to the table with a brilliant plan there. The taco bell breakfast offering is unbelievable trash, and works just fine for the sort of people who have made peace with their lives as taco-bell customers, but if Chipotle plans on selling breakfast burritos at $10 per transaction, they're going to need something that I doubt he has any unique ability to provide.

Honestly, this seems like a potential branding catastrophe. Let's hope that everybody is aware of that, and their willingness to run that risk speaks to their confidence in his actual abilities.

TorontoRaptorsFan

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Re: CMG - Chipotle
« Reply #353 on: February 13, 2018, 09:39:50 PM »
This is great news!
I thought Chipotle needed some new and innovative ideas and this hiring proves it.
This turnaround will take time but iím Confident in the new CEO.
AAPL, BAC, BAM, CMG, DIS, NKE

mwtorock

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Re: CMG - Chipotle
« Reply #354 on: February 14, 2018, 08:08:11 AM »
Have not looked into the new CEO yet. Just a quick glance at this morning's newspaper. Could you share a bit more about why you're so confident in him?

The first thing came to my mind was the JCP drama that involved a new CEO and Pershing Square. Not saying this time it would be the same, but would like to know more about his strategies or plans for the turnaround.

CorpRaider

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Re: CMG - Chipotle
« Reply #355 on: February 14, 2018, 10:00:02 AM »
$100 turnaround valuation seems harsh...CMG reported ~6 in reported earnings...adjusting for growth capex (~143M) and card breach one time payment (30M) , you get an after tax net earnings of an additional ~4.. So we have ~10 adj. eps, ~4.5B revenue that grew 15%, ~18 net cash per share, ~3.3% share buyback.  Bias Disclaimer: Im a buyer here.

In addtion,  'Breakfast daypart' also might be the hidden ace up his sleeve, which could catalyze SSS , even absent any successful menu innovation initiatives.
"Under his leadership, he successfully repositioned Taco Bell as a lifestyle brand and successfully launched numerous product initiatives, including the new breakfast daypart, the fastest growing daypart in the industry. He transformed Taco Bell into a social media leader and revolutionized its digital approach through mobile ordering and payment across their 7,000 restaurants. He also created a people-centric innovation culture that has been recognized throughout the industry."

Yo quiero 10x EV/EBIT.
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Spekulatius

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Re: CMG - Chipotle
« Reply #356 on: February 14, 2018, 06:56:33 PM »
$100 turnaround valuation seems harsh...CMG reported ~6 in reported earnings...adjusting for growth capex (~143M) and card breach one time payment (30M) , you get an after tax net earnings of an additional ~4.. So we have ~10 adj. eps, ~4.5B revenue that grew 15%, ~18 net cash per share, ~3.3% share buyback.  Bias Disclaimer: Im a buyer here.

In addtion,  'Breakfast daypart' also might be the hidden ace up his sleeve, which could catalyze SSS , even absent any successful menu innovation initiatives.
"Under his leadership, he successfully repositioned Taco Bell as a lifestyle brand and successfully launched numerous product initiatives, including the new breakfast daypart, the fastest growing daypart in the industry. He transformed Taco Bell into a social media leader and revolutionized its digital approach through mobile ordering and payment across their 7,000 restaurants. He also created a people-centric innovation culture that has been recognized throughout the industry."

Yo quiero 10x EV/EBIT.

I agree that $100/ share is harsh, but turnarounds are hard to do. donfar, the growth caped they are spending hasnít done much, so bear case (beer case?) may be thatís its money down the drain. $6 in earnings for a $100 share isnít thwt cheap optically. I have seen stranger things in life than a turnaround at 16x earnings.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.