Author Topic: CLWR - Clearwire  (Read 122000 times)

finetrader

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Re: CLWR - Clearwire
« Reply #10 on: May 14, 2011, 11:38:51 AM »
good point Myth

show me the money,don't just tell me
Live to invest, invest to live


Myth465

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Re: CLWR - Clearwire
« Reply #11 on: May 14, 2011, 11:46:26 AM »
Myth, 100% agree with you. It's similar to CHK - so what if these assets have these implied values, unless ur selling them off they don't generate cash. Sell them off slowly and realize the value.

Regardless of what happens, I just don't see these strategic partners letting their 84% combined equity stake go up in flames - am I wrong? Won't these big egos do everything in their power to keep this thing going? I would think the worst case would be the strategic partners step in with some more capital to sustain the operation and start liquidating the spectrum.



This is my major issue with CHK. He could erase that value discount immediately. He cant drill all the acre which is why there are so many farm outs and JVs, so why not sell a portion. I like the BHP sell, but wise they would sell some acre for cash in hand or more production. Its tough, but Im not running a billion dollar company so what do I know.

I think TBone is right though Ichan will find value one way or another.

S2S

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Re: CLWR - Clearwire
« Reply #12 on: May 14, 2011, 12:46:49 PM »
Packer hit the nail on its head. For the natural consolidators (AT&T and VZW), there is every reason to do wait for Sprint's, Clearwire's, and/or Lightsquare's demise to then pick up assets on the cheap.

What about Microsoft and Google? If someone can explain why they would stray from their incredibly profitable core competencies to get into operating wireless networks, an extremely capital intensive business with meager and ever declining ROI, I am listening.




Now, if the T-Mobile US acquisition falls apart, things will get interesting. Till then...

bmichaud

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Re: CLWR - Clearwire
« Reply #13 on: May 14, 2011, 01:09:36 PM »
I'm not arguing ur point, just trying to sort it out for myself. Why would the strategic investors owning 84% let CLWR fail? If wireless is growing as rapidly as it appears, then eventually won't the natural consolidators be forced into buying CLWR's spectrum? I would think, at least if I was a controlling shareholder, that a controlling sgareholder would doing everything in their power to keep CLWR humming along until other players are forced to buy and/or until CLWR is cash-flow positive.

I won't be fully on board with the idea that CLWR will go under until it is explained to me why the strategic investors would let that happen. Again, not trying to be argumentative, just trying to answer that question for myself, bc if there is a good reason/strong prob that they will let it fail, then a position in the equity has very little downside protection and is not a very good idea.

Cardboard

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Re: CLWR - Clearwire
« Reply #14 on: May 14, 2011, 01:38:22 PM »
IMO, the most likely scenario is a break-up of Clearwire: Sprint retains the network which is then converted to LTE along with some spectrum and the rest of the spectrum is sold off to Verizon Wireless or an attractive price. The sale to Verizon would allow Sprint to swallow the 46% not owned and to reduce its proforma debt. Also, both Sprint and Verizon are on the CDMA standard so there is some common points there.

Verizon Wireless is ahead of the pack in the race towards a national LTE 4G network (unless Sprint switches to LTE right away). However, they lack spectrum. If they want to maintain their advance, they will need to resolve that issue. Remember that AT&T bought T-Mobile in part for their spectrum while they are behind Verizon Wireless on their LTE national roll-out. If Verizon Wireless wants to keep its number #1 status, they will need to fight AT&T with technology, speed, service or other since AT&T has chosen to turn #1 by simply acquiring the subscribers of a competitor.

I also think that AT&T will need to give up quite a bit to swallow T-Mobile. It is not looking so good at the moment with the various regulators. They also committed to a $6 billion break-up fee which is enormous. If it doesn't go through, you have some idea as to what will happen to its CEO. So expect some significant deals in coming months to realign everything. I believe that both Sprint and Clearwire will look much better than what people perceive right now. 50+ million wireless subscribers and over 3 times more 4G spectrum than Verizon or AT&T is just too good to pass up.

As you can see, I also kept the discussion aligned with the big existing wireless players. There is no way to tell what will happen with Google, Microsoft, LightSquared and I would say even Comcast in that discussion. This will be a very dynamic scene and to expect AT&T and Verizon to just let Sprint and Clearwire die does not make sense with so much at stake. Moreover, the latest numbers indicate that both Sprint and Clearwire are growing, so much for their imminent demise.

Cardboard

S2S

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Re: CLWR - Clearwire
« Reply #15 on: May 14, 2011, 02:59:54 PM »
Hi Cardboard,

That's a very reasonable 5-year view. The important questions to such a resolution, of course, are when and how it will unfold, and the ensuing benefits to common shareholders (vs. Sprint's and other debtors). There seems to be a bit more clarity on the former: I find it hard to imagine a deal being conceived for the next 12-18 months while the DoJ and the FCC contemplate the AT&T/T-Mobile US merger - smart move by AT&T to albeit at a cost of $6B, the breakup cost promised to Deutsche Telekom.

You are correct on the positive signs of an ongoing turnaround at Sprint. I'd watch the explosive capex growth, however, as its attempt to stay open to all (technological) options via a Network Vision build-out comes at a cost.

ubuy2wron

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Re: CLWR - Clearwire
« Reply #16 on: May 14, 2011, 03:12:13 PM »
In addition INTC are not totally stupid so why are they selling and neither is Craig McCaw and until I see some of the major investors pony up for more equity it makes zero sense to try to be a hero here. I may think I know what the future will bring for CLWR however none of the participants who have a say in the matter are showing their hand at this stage.

bmichaud

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Re: CLWR - Clearwire
« Reply #17 on: May 14, 2011, 05:49:07 PM »
As Buffett says, you pay a high price for certainty.

Attached is a very good research note by BTIG that I got off of Cap IQ.

beerbaron

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Re: CLWR - Clearwire
« Reply #18 on: May 15, 2011, 08:00:52 AM »
Anybody knows how much the senior notes trade at?

BeerBaron

claphands22

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Re: CLWR - Clearwire
« Reply #19 on: May 15, 2011, 10:25:20 PM »