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General Category => Investment Ideas => Topic started by: whiterose on August 07, 2018, 03:52:12 AM

Title: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: whiterose on August 07, 2018, 03:52:12 AM
Pandora A/S (often styled PANDORA) is an international Danish jewellery manufacturer and retailer.
Pandora is known for its customizable charm bracelets, designer rings, necklaces.
The company has a production site in Thailand and markets its products in more than 100 countries on 6 continents with more than 7,700 points of sale.

The share price development looks ugly, they guided down today, price dropped again 20%.
Fundamentally it's looks really cheap.
Large FCF, growth is slowing.
A good sized share buyback is in place (although you can argue too early)
Dividend yield is now at 10%
Some Analysts are questioning the management quality.
Float Short% about 8%

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-06/pandora-slashes-forecast-as-jewelry-maker-s-misery-grows-deeper (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-06/pandora-slashes-forecast-as-jewelry-maker-s-misery-grows-deeper)

Looks like it could be of value to a strategic buyer or even a PE-firm (taken private?)

What do you guys think?
Title: Re: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: petec on August 07, 2018, 05:33:26 AM
What do you think is the fundamental threat here? High ROIC stocks don't trade on 6x unless the market fears they face an existential threat. What is it?
Title: Re: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: John Hjorth on August 07, 2018, 05:47:08 AM
Such a piece of crap, living on a lie, just hot air all over, basically selling crap produced [cheap] in Asia as socalled jewelry.

My brother has a small position in his portfolio that I manage.

I was shocked years back when my brother told me, that he had bought it.

I discussed it with him as late as last week, because I basically want to get rid of it. We decided to give it one year, and then it will be gone, because it looked reasonable cheap last week.

If I ever came home with such a bracelet as a gift to the Lady of the House, I think, there would be two possible outcomes:

1. She would slap me [,which she never has done],
or
2. She would look me in the eyes, asking: "Have you cheated on me?"

- - - o 0 o - - -

Doubled down at DKK 334.70 in the market panick today. It will still be gone in a year from now.
Title: Re: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: petec on August 07, 2018, 06:07:13 AM
Surely if you cheated on her you'd at least get her something decent? ;)
Title: Re: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: hell0dude on August 07, 2018, 06:23:14 AM
Surely if you cheated on her you'd at least get her something decent? ;)

 ;D ;D this is hilarious
Title: Re: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: John Hjorth on August 07, 2018, 06:33:37 AM
[ : - D ] - I think I would probably be in severe problems no matter what, if I bought some low end Pandora stuff or high end Pandora stuff to her ... [<- that looks like a pretty evasive reply to me ..., arhh - I'll just post it anyway [ : - ) ]

- The trick is to be observant when women look at bling!
Title: Re: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: petec on August 07, 2018, 06:45:59 AM
- The trick is to be observant when women look at bling!

I haven't got the f**king patience! Easier not to cheat ;)
Title: Re: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: John Hjorth on August 07, 2018, 06:57:12 AM
Pete,

[ ; - D ]

- - - o 0 o - - -

Berlingske Business - Blog - The Stock Exchange & The Bosses: Pandora: "The ball is now on your table, Peter Tuborgh" (https://bosserne.blogs.business.dk/2018/08/07/pandora-bolden-ligger-nu-paa-dit-bord-peder-tuborgh/).
Title: Re: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: Spekulatius on August 07, 2018, 07:27:10 AM
Such a piece of crap, living on a lie, just hot air all over, basically selling crap produced [cheap] in Asia as socalled jewelry.

My brother has a small position in his portfolio that I manage.

I was shocked years back when my brother told me, that he had bought it.

I discussed it with him as late as last week, because I basically want to get rid of it. We decided to give it one year, and then it will be gone, because it looked reasonable cheap last week.

If I ever came home with such a bracelet as a gift to the Lady of the House, I think, there would be two possible outcomes:

1. She would slap me [,which she never has done],
or
2. She would look me in the eyes, asking: "Have you cheated on me?"

- - - o 0 o - - -

Doubled down at DKK 334.70 in the market panick today. It will still be gone in a year from now.

Doubling down on a POS in my opinion is not a good strategy. I double down too, if I like the company, but if I go wrong with a trading sardine, I think it is better to just take the loss and get out.
Title: Re: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: petec on August 07, 2018, 07:39:56 AM
Berlingske Business - Blog - The Stock Exchange & The Bosses: Pandora: "The ball is now on your table, Peter Tuborgh" (https://bosserne.blogs.business.dk/2018/08/07/pandora-bolden-ligger-nu-paa-dit-bord-peder-tuborgh/).

Well, I've learnt one thing from this thread: Google Translate is terrible at Danish-to-English!
Title: Re: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: John Hjorth on August 07, 2018, 08:54:22 AM
Here's a quick & dirty translation weeding out the worst of the translation effects:

Quote
Pandora CEO Anders Colding Friis has failed to put many of his communications legs right since he joined three years ago. The stock is spalshed on the asphalt with a decrease of 50 percent last year. Read column from January 2018 here.

What's worse, the trust of the Pandora top is not existing. Most of all, it looks like a top management, moving around in a cheese bell. From a shareholder perspective, Colding Friis is not an asset for Pandora, but a liability that draws down the assessment.

Pandora is well and thoroughly tied up in a solid communication and leadership crisis.

It's not that much that Pandora guidance downgrade. Output markets go up and down, something succeeds, other things fail, currencies are constantly changing value, so yes, of course, a company can’t draw a line four years ahead and clockwise frame development quarter by quarter.

So no, it's not the downward adjustment in itself. Pandora is not in an existential crisis, but Pandora is well and firmly tucked in a solid communication and management crisis. Symbolically, the fact that Colding Friis and the Board had sent out a few lines with the downgrade after late Monday stuck their heads in the bush, and then closed down for further communication.

It is possible that the Pandora peak in its communication strategy has internally drawn some lines and set some times for when management wants to say words to the masses, but that’s not how a stock market work. The geniet is out of the bottle, which is analyzed and analyzed, and then the top management must pinpoint and explain.

Here's my column from January 2018: Pandora boss Anders Colding Friis lives on borrowed time.

On Pandora's website you can read that the dialogue with shareholders is above all else. "We are committed to maintaining a constructive dialogue with our shareholders." - read here. Hm! It is not credible when the dialogue is totally absent in Pandora management.

Perhaps the Pandora is paralyzed of a stubbornness at the top, which means that the management has more focus on fighting the media, the stock market and its analysts.

Analysts across a broad crest are puzzled and are now doubting what essentially Pandora management can deliver. I.e. Sydbank in its update: "The downward adjustment [of the guidance] will also increase investors' suspicion for Pandora management's announcements to the market."

Perhaps the Pandora action slurry is a stubbornness at the top, which means that the management has more focus on fighting the media, the stock market and its analysts, rather than delivering a sober, credible communication about ups and downs around the world in Pandora's hunting markets.

It has become something "them" and "us" at Pandora. With Colding Friis & Co. throbbing after the diminished expectations the stock market itself prices into the Pandora stock.

If it is true that it is first and foremost the interests of shareholders, which is on the mind ofthe Board, it can be hard to see that trust can be restored with the current daily top management.

The problem for Pandora's top manager Anders Colding Friis and Chairman Peder Tuborgh is not that sales growth is adjusted down from being in the range of seven to ten percent up to now in the range of four to seven percent, as well as a minor downgrade of earnings expectations (EBITDA margin) from 35 percent to now 32 percent.

Pandora's communication and leadership crisis is so much more surprising when looking at the board that is behind. Extremely competent business bosses who otherwise know how to communicate.

Among others, the head of the Dansk Supermarked A/S, Per Bank, former Pandora boss Bjørn Gulden, Axcels, Christian Frigast and chairman Peder Tuborgh are the successful chief executive for the last 13 years.

There is no doubt that the Pandora Board at this time goes from crisis meeting to crisis meeting. A replacement of Anders Colding Friis will of course also be a failure for Tuborgh and the the rest of the board. It may be that Colding Friis has the qualifications needed to lead a company such as Pandora. If, therefore, the dialogue written in the vision was present in the world of reality.

If it is true that it is first and foremost the interests of shareholders, which is the focus ofthe Board, it can be hard to see that trust can be restored with the current daily top management.
Title: Re: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: Spekulatius on August 07, 2018, 10:14:36 AM
What do you think is the fundamental threat here? High ROIC stocks don't trade on 6x unless the market fears they face an existential threat. What is it?

The fundamental threat is that Pandora’s jewellery is a fad that is past its peak and declines quickly. I actually think that is the case here and if I were to go long this stock, I would need evidence of Pandora being a durable brand. The idea to encourage repeat purchases , making it easy for the buyer ( men) by making jewellery a collections is a good one, but few of these thing are really durable and once it goes downhill, there is almost no way to arrest the slide.
Title: Re: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: John Hjorth on August 07, 2018, 10:39:20 AM
Todays PNDORA trading and broker statistics attached.
Title: Re: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: whiterose on August 07, 2018, 01:11:36 PM
Re: statistics: I'm not sure what it means; that clients at Anonymous Brokers (undefined?) sold and all others bought?

Quote
What do you think is the fundamental threat here? High ROIC stocks don't trade on 6x unless the market fears they face an existential threat. What is it?

I actually think it's not a fad. Sure, they started out with "charms" (may be a fad) but then diversified into other areas: rings, necklaces, earrings etc. One can observe a long term shift into branded jewellery over time, based on their sources and also Richemont said this before.

The product as such is cheap aka affordable, but that's just (jewellery) market segmentation. There is real demand for this stuff out there, think kids/girls/teenagers/students or low to mid-income (young) couples etc. also single women who want to treat themselves. Customer base is pretty varied, also on the age-spectrum.

The in-house production line in Thailand looks pretty efficient and they even innovate some new processes and improve on existing ones.
I think it's overall just a management issue. The board should think about replacing the CEO. Maybe they become a target for an activist? Or like I said a buyout from an informed investor could be an option.
Title: Re: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: Parsad on August 07, 2018, 01:23:02 PM
Pandora A/S (often styled PANDORA) is an international Danish jewellery manufacturer and retailer.
Pandora is known for its customizable charm bracelets, designer rings, necklaces.
The company has a production site in Thailand and markets its products in more than 100 countries on 6 continents with more than 7,700 points of sale.

The share price development looks ugly, they guided down today, price dropped again 20%.
Fundamentally it's looks really cheap.
Large FCF, growth is slowing.
A good sized share buyback is in place (although you can argue too early)
Dividend yield is now at 10%
Some Analysts are questioning the management quality.
Float Short% about 8%

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-06/pandora-slashes-forecast-as-jewelry-maker-s-misery-grows-deeper (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-06/pandora-slashes-forecast-as-jewelry-maker-s-misery-grows-deeper)

Looks like it could be of value to a strategic buyer or even a PE-firm (taken private?)

What do you guys think?

Berkshire subsidiary, Ben Bridge, runs and operates all of the Pandora stores in North America.  I would imagine that Berkshire could take out Pandora if they wanted the whole company.  Cheers!
Title: Re: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: John Hjorth on August 07, 2018, 01:55:25 PM
Re: statistics: I'm not sure what it means; that clients at Anonymous Brokers (undefined?) sold and all others bought? ...

whiterose,

What you see in the statistics as "anonymous broker" are foreign [non-Danish/Scandinavian] brokers with access to NasdaQ OMX Copenhagen trading in the stock today on behalf of their clients. So massive trading in the stock today, where foreign [non-Danish/Scandinavian] investors are dumping the stock, and Danish investors picking it up, to the best of their ability [wallet size], with Danske Bank clients being the exception [net selling].

Personally, I agree with your overall perception of the company. Please take a look at the January 2018 Investor Day presentation. There is to me personally no doubt that what Mr. Colding Friis is up to ref. the business plan is the right thing to do. His intention is to revitalize and to revamp the company, morphing & diversifying the company from a "one pillar" company [bracelets] to "general jewelry - Pandora style".

This is a communication mishap [ref. above], which likely will cost Mr. Colding Friis his job. Time will tell.

Edit:

Annual Report 2017, p. 46:

Quote
As of 31 December 2017, institutional investors in Denmark held 12% of the share capital, institutional investors in Europe held 47% of the share capital (of which 29% was held by UK investors), and institutional investors in North America held 16%. As of 31 December 2017, 12% of the PANDORA shares were held by Danish retail investors.
Title: Re: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: John Hjorth on August 07, 2018, 02:09:56 PM
Berkshire subsidiary, Ben Bridge, runs and operates all of the Pandora stores in North America.  I would imagine that Berkshire could take out Pandora if they wanted the whole company.  Cheers!

Yes, Sanjeev,

I also wonder if Mr. Arnault would be interested in this thingy. They could both do it easily. No anchor investors here to say no.

Edit:

Annual Report 2017, p. 46:

Quote
As of 31 December 2017, there were no single shareholders owning more than 5% of the share capital and voting rights in PANDORA.
Title: Re: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: DooDiligence on August 07, 2018, 04:00:57 PM
Pandora A/S (often styled PANDORA) is an international Danish jewellery manufacturer and retailer.
Pandora is known for its customizable charm bracelets, designer rings, necklaces.
The company has a production site in Thailand and markets its products in more than 100 countries on 6 continents with more than 7,700 points of sale.

The share price development looks ugly, they guided down today, price dropped again 20%.
Fundamentally it's looks really cheap.
Large FCF, growth is slowing.
A good sized share buyback is in place (although you can argue too early)
Dividend yield is now at 10%
Some Analysts are questioning the management quality.
Float Short% about 8%

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-06/pandora-slashes-forecast-as-jewelry-maker-s-misery-grows-deeper (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-06/pandora-slashes-forecast-as-jewelry-maker-s-misery-grows-deeper)

Looks like it could be of value to a strategic buyer or even a PE-firm (taken private?)

What do you guys think?

Berkshire subsidiary, Ben Bridge, runs and operates all of the Pandora stores in North America.  I would imagine that Berkshire could take out Pandora if they wanted the whole company.  Cheers!

I looked in the local store today & was somewhat impressed.
I thought they just sold beads with CZ's?

You get what you pay for with Thai manufacturers.
Many are quite good.

I'll take my exposure through BRK.
Title: Re: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: petec on August 08, 2018, 12:35:30 AM
@ John: can you explain why you are so certain to sell this in the long run? I get that they sell tat, but there's a big market for tat, and customers are almost evenly spread across the income classes. The financial characteristics are excellent and there seems to be a coherent plan to reinvigorate innovation and efficiency after a period of over-expansion. For me the key question is: is this the Inditex of jewellery or is it just a fad? What do you think is the key issue that will make you sell?

EDIT: I'd add that margins here are so high that it's quite hard to make it look expensive. Even if sales fall 10%, gross margins fall 500bps, and operating spend rises 5%, it's still on about 12x.

@ whiterose, why do you think there is a management issue here? And is it really a management issue (i.e. are they doing a bad job of running the company, which I care about very much) or is it a communications issue (which I really don't care about on 6x earnings).
Title: Re: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: John Hjorth on August 08, 2018, 04:41:17 AM

@ John: can you explain why you are so certain to sell this in the long run? I get that they sell tat, but there's a big market for tat, and customers are almost evenly spread across the income classes. The financial characteristics are excellent and there seems to be a coherent plan to reinvigorate innovation and efficiency after a period of over-expansion. For me the key question is: is this the Inditex of jewellery or is it just a fad? What do you think is the key issue that will make you sell?

EDIT: I'd add that margins here are so high that it's quite hard to make it look expensive. Even if sales fall 10%, gross margins fall 500bps, and operating spend rises 5%, it's still on about 12x. ...

Pete & Spekulatius,

Please disregard my severely biased comments yesterday about calling it a piece of crap. We got some fun and good humor out of that I got carried away. whiterose also politely pointed out, that there is actually a quite strong demand for products sold by the company, at very good margins. Those comments were about the products, based on personal taste - I can't come up with something more subjective than that.


The whole luxury industry is making money by putting a global tax on vanity.

Actually, the mild pushback I got yesterday on here made me check today the spread on a high end bracelet and a low end, simply taking it to the extremes with regard to charms on the bracelet [here I'm using UK prices, for Pete]:

A bracelet with ten Majestic Crown, gold charm, 0.108ct TW h/vs diamonds (https://uk.pandora.net/en/charms/charms/?src=categorySearch&position=top#srule=price-high-to-low&start=0&sz=12) will set you back a bit north of GBP 6,000. [Please note, that this particular charm is marked "trending product", and if you click on it, it's right now out of stock, indicating to me that it's going like hot bread.

We live a few kms from a mall called Rosengårdcenret located in the South-East part of Odense, where there is a Pandora shop. We visit that mall frequently, but I haven't paid any attention to that particular shop before. I'll go scouting a bit there tomorrow after normal working hours to get a perception of how the experience is.

Pandora is basically GARP investing, while I think it's actually cheap right now, because of the actual company situation.

My concerns are about its size. It's a mini in the luxury industry, and it is only in one segment of the whole industry. That risk of getting tasken out of the investment at a price buttom plus some premium to that I consider real. The company is basically up against behemoths like LVMH, Richemont & Kering.

That line of defensive thinking also implies, that one will never hit the next Inditex, naturally.

Attached is an industry report from Deloitte.
Title: Re: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: whiterose on August 08, 2018, 07:27:58 AM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-07/pandora-s-1-billion-share-plunge-starts-fingerpointing-at-ceo (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-07/pandora-s-1-billion-share-plunge-starts-fingerpointing-at-ceo)

Quote
The last time the shares in Pandora A/S fell as much as they did on Tuesday, the jewelry maker fired its chief executive officer. So it’s no surprise that question marks are now growing next to the name of the current CEO, Anders Colding Friis.
Title: Re: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: whiterose on August 08, 2018, 10:57:53 PM
Quote
CEO OF PANDORA STEPS DOWN
August 9, 2018

PANDORA today announces that Anders Colding Friis is stepping down as President and CEO of the Company effective as of 31 August 2018. The Board of Directors of PANDORA would like to thank Anders Colding Friis for his hard work and commitment over the last three and a half years.

During the Capital Markets Day held on 16 January 2018, the Company presented its strategic direction towards 2022. The Board remains fully committed to this strategy and recognises the importance of its successful execution. To this end, the Company will be further strengthening its management team at the same time as a search for a new CEO is underway.

Jeremy Schwartz will be joining PANDORA as COO effective as of 1 September 2018. Jeremy Schwartz is a former CEO of The Body Shop and has previously held senior positions at several other multinational companies. PANDORA’s CFO, Anders Boyer, and COO, Jeremy Schwartz, will be jointly responsible for managing the Company and leading the execution of PANDORA’s strategy with the full support of the Board of Directors until the appointment of a new CEO.

Peder Tuborgh, Chairman of the Board of Directors, says: “The Board recognises the important role Anders Colding Friis has played in leading the Company and in particular in developing and articulating the right new strategy assuring the future success of PANDORA. Pending the appointment of a new CEO, I am delighted that we have Anders Boyer and Jeremy Schwartz on board to take the lead.”

As part of the Company’s effort to strengthen its leadership team, PANDORA intends to reinforce the Board of Directors with further appointees with relevant business experience in major global consumer and/or retail businesses.

Spencer Stuart has been retained to lead the executive search for both a new CEO and candidates for the Board of Directors.
Title: Re: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: John Hjorth on August 09, 2018, 01:59:32 AM

PANDORA / CFO: JULY SALES STALL WAS THE HEAD ON THE NAIL

10:48
Pandora's downgrade earlier this week has been heavily criticized by equity analysts and investors, and some consider that the company should have seen and announced the reduced expectations for the stock market at an earlier date.

The company's CFO, Anders Boyer, who first took up his position on August 1, explains that it was only after a board meeting on 6 August that the company had to downgrade its expectations after the sales trend for July was also revealed up to the last weekend in July.

"Even when we saw the numbers for the second quarter earlier in the summer, we could see that they were not quite as they should be. We have carried out a lot of analyzes - and at the end of last week we had management meetings and meetings with the countries.

"In addition, we will have July sales for Friday, which were not quite as we would like, on Friday. As a result, we were able to go into the board meeting on Monday and had to decide to make a downward adjustment, "explains Anders Boyer in an interview with Ritzau Finans.

Pandora downgraded Monday after the end of trading period expectations of revenue growth in local currency in 2018 to 4-7 per cent. from previously 7-10 per cent, and expectations for the EBITDA margin were reduced to 32 per cent. from previously 35 per cent.

The downgrade came just seven months after the company launched its strategy for 2022 and announced its objectives.

Despite the difficult start of the strategy period, Pandora is holding on to its plans.

"We hold on to our long-term goal, because the strategy is right and we do all the right things, but we have to find that the changing steps we're taking takes a little longer than planned," says Anders Boyer.

/ Ritzau / FINANS

Flemming Thestrup Andersen
Title: Re: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: petec on August 09, 2018, 03:57:25 AM
Do you guys have a view on whether the company is badly run, or is it just that communication is bad? Is the 2022 strategic plan sensible?
Title: Re: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: Spekulatius on August 09, 2018, 04:13:24 AM
I don’t quite get why Pandora’s sales are down, even though they are introducing much more new products. Are the declines in their legacy lines much more severe now, or are the new product introductions just not working?
Title: Re: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: John Hjorth on August 09, 2018, 04:55:46 AM
PNDORA 2018Q2 (https://investor.pandoragroup.com/financial-information/quarterly-results) is also out today.

Spekulatius,

If you study the appendix [in Excel], you'll see that charms [to bracelets] are dwindling, while bracelets are holding up, and growth in new products: rings, earrings & necklaces. It indicates to me, that the company is in the process of doing the right thing. [Going from "One Pillar" company to "Multi Pillar" company, ref. the January 2018 Investor Day Business plan presentation].

It'll take a person like you just a few minutes to get a clear & precise overview of what's happening by studying the appendix.

2018Q2 looks resonable good to me, the whole operational situation taken into consideration - the pendulum has to me swung too far out here for the share price.

Edit:

I was personally a bit puzzled about charms dwindling, while bracelets basically are holding up. Think of it this way: Say, your are a female fan of Pandora bling, already owning a bracelet with some charms, and wanting to add some more Pandora stuff. Now you can not only add more charms, you have the option to buy rings, earrings & necklaces, too. So, the new products actually in some way compete with charms.
Title: Re: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: Spekulatius on August 09, 2018, 06:30:23 AM
John, thanks I got that. It seems that the new products can’t offset the decline in Charms ( Pandora’s main / legacy. Product). This is good and bad because Pandora is known for charms and they have to compete with other companies with their newer products.

Pandora looks abut like coach a few years ago- a brand with some equity that has to redo its product portfolio. Worked in COH’s case , but wasn’t an easy ride, but that is true for most turnarounds.
Title: Re: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: peterHK on August 09, 2018, 12:36:48 PM
The issue for me here is that directionally, the economics of this business are getting worse.

With a turnaround like TRIP, you had the potential for things to get better as growth that was offset by declines started to show through. In any turnaround to really see a valuation lift, in my experience you needed to see some part of the business shine through, not just stabilize.

With Pandora, as they're investing more in the physical channel, all I can see is ROIC's getting worse, and part of why this business was so good was ROIC's were fantastic as it was a capital light model. Worse ROIC means a worse multiple. I also see risks to them because they're not playing in the same rarified air as LVMH for instance, where even though there is a black market for knockoffs, there is huge demand for the real deal. Pandora IMO just doesn't have the cache to really stem the grey/black market alternatives in China, which is what everyone is worrying about.

So I can see Pandora stabilizing, maybe, but I don't think that's necessarily enough for an investment case here.
Title: Re: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: John Hjorth on August 10, 2018, 01:37:01 AM

Do you guys have a view on whether the company is badly run, or is it just that communication is bad? Is the 2022 strategic plan sensible?

Pete,

I don't think the company was badly run, while the stock has now tanked two times, first time in May 2018, in total about 50 percent. It was a communication crisis with analysts and investors loosing trust in the company, with the opinion the downgrade was too long on it's way [somehow, this situation to me has a lot of similarities to what happened with NVO in late 2016]. It's a management judgement call when to downgrade growth. I mean how much information & data do you need to have to be sure [confident] that growth is actually slowing down, when you're studying internal daily, weekly, monthly & quarterly sales data? [Pandora has them all], as to the contrary of just experiencing a short & temporary "blimp"/"dent" in sales? - I certainly don't have the answer.

The strategic plan seems sensible to me personally. I actually think it's the only option the company has. But as mentioned by Spekulatius and PeterHK, that does not make it easy to execute.

With regard to new management, here (https://outline.com/SAP89Y) is an article about the new COO & CFO [interim new management untill new CEO] from Boersen.dk [here outlined, because it's behind paywall] of yesterday. It does not read bad to me.

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This morning I was reading Shareville [an investment board provided by my broker] to get a feeling of the sentiment among the Danish retail investors. Funny place! The bears now call PNDORA a dead cat bounce! [ : - D]


Here is one comment of yesterday early from a bull, that makes sense to me:

Quote
If you look at Pandora’s financial reports you will see that 2016 & 2017 have been the best years for both revenue & earnings by some margin. In the short term the stock market is often a popularity contest. That is why Pandora’s recent price development resembles more a company that is going bankrupt than one that has record earnings. That is why William Demant trades at a P/E of over 40, whilst at current prices Pandora trades at a P/E of 6.8. Which stock do you think is the best risk/reward play here going forwards based on probabilities? At a P/E of 6.8 the risk/reward is now actually starting to look good. The fact management have been a PR disaster has not done the companys reputation any favours and they have lost popularity. When analyst expectations going forward are low [and they are based on a P/E of 6.8] it is also a lot easier to beat those expectations. When that happens, and it surely will at some point, the stock is likely to rally. I imagine value investors will be watching with interest when Pandora report shortly.
Title: Re: CPH:PNDORA - PANDORA A/S
Post by: John Hjorth on August 11, 2018, 03:05:18 AM
Boersen.dk [August 10th 2018]: Newly appointed CFO: We are in a separation phase with the market (http://borsen.dk/nyheder/virksomheder/artikel/1/367047/nyudnaevnt_pandora-direktoer_vi_er_i_en_separationsfase_med_markedet.html?utm_source=forside&utm_campaign=nyhed_13).

Mr. Boyer started in his new job at Pandora August 1st, and on his 8th working day in the new job, directly after finishing the 2018Q2 reporting, he started patching the relationship between the company and the market. Please note the comments about "like to like" figures for sales in the article, compared to the 2018Q2 company announcement. The company has so far refused to release these figures to the market, and has now yielded.

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... Now you can not only add more charms, you have the option to buy rings, earrings & necklaces, too. So, the new products actually in some way compete with charms.

... It seems that the new products can’t offset the decline in Charms ( Pandora’s main / legacy. Product). This is good and bad because Pandora is known for charms and they have to compete with other companies with their newer products.

Pandora looks abut like coach a few years ago- a brand with some equity that has to redo its product portfolio. Worked in COH’s case , but wasn’t an easy ride, but that is true for most turnarounds.

Spekulatius,

True.