Author Topic: CSU - Constellation Software  (Read 125503 times)

Liberty

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chrispy

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Re: CSU - Constellation Software
« Reply #381 on: April 10, 2018, 03:58:06 AM »
Thanks for sharing Liberty. A high quality read which there aren't a whole lot of CSU or Leonard that I have found

Liberty

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Re: CSU - Constellation Software
« Reply #382 on: April 10, 2018, 08:43:32 AM »
Iím going to the $CSU.to AGM on April 26th.

Just booked train tickets and room. Iíll probably do ad hoc meetup/drinks at the Cíest What on the evening of April 25th, like last year (will post about it closer to the date). Twitter and CoBF folks welcome to join!

http://www.cestwhat.com/directions
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Shooter MacGavin

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Re: CSU - Constellation Software
« Reply #383 on: April 10, 2018, 05:00:28 PM »
Iím going to the $CSU.to AGM on April 26th.

Just booked train tickets and room. Iíll probably do ad hoc meetup/drinks at the Cíest What on the evening of April 25th, like last year (will post about it closer to the date). Twitter and CoBF folks welcome to join!

http://www.cestwhat.com/directions

Awesome.  Thanks for arranging.  I'll be there.  Look forward to meeting in person

KCLarkin

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Re: CSU - Constellation Software
« Reply #384 on: April 11, 2018, 06:22:27 AM »
Great news. I will be there.

sane

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Re: CSU - Constellation Software
« Reply #385 on: April 13, 2018, 02:07:40 AM »
This week Corum published a recent interview with COO Mark Miller:
http://ow.ly/1kLX30jsWDW


Shooter MacGavin

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Re: CSU - Constellation Software
« Reply #386 on: April 13, 2018, 07:06:18 AM »
This week Corum published a recent interview with COO Mark Miller:
http://ow.ly/1kLX30jsWDW

thanks this is great.

Liberty

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Re: CSU - Constellation Software
« Reply #387 on: April 13, 2018, 09:10:19 AM »
This week Corum published a recent interview with COO Mark Miller:
http://ow.ly/1kLX30jsWDW

Thank you.

The rest of the interview is here:

https://overcast.fm/+efStk-TI
« Last Edit: April 13, 2018, 09:14:25 AM by Liberty »
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SlowAppreciation

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Re: CSU - Constellation Software
« Reply #388 on: April 16, 2018, 10:56:53 AM »
I've been looking at this, and would appreciate any feedback on my thinking:

  • Current Price: $690 USD
  • If they cease all acquisitions tomorrow, and organically grow existing biz 3%/yr, DCF gives me around $450-$500 (10% hurdle rate)
  • That leaves $200-$250 of value for yet-to-be-acquired businesses
  • Historically ROIC has been around ~35-40%. If CSU can deploy capital at less than half that rate (call it 15%) in the future, that's easily another $100/share

So when using pretty conservative estimates of organic growth and ROIC, I get ~$550-$600/share. Current valuation doesn't seem too crazy.

longlake95

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Re: CSU - Constellation Software
« Reply #389 on: April 16, 2018, 11:34:56 AM »
I too, did a back of the envelope valuation recently to get my head around CSU. Still more work to be done, but using similar conservative #'s I ended up with at steady state value of $650 ish USD ( bakes in the current growth rate for the next 5yrs ). When I sit back and look at CSU, it just doesn't seem "cheap". However, I have overlooked several great fast growing companies in the past because I didn't think they could continue to grow at such high rates. This seems to be in the same camp - except - I love Mark Leonard - he seems to be a better jockey than most. I think it's a matter of waiting for a pull back - then taking a small 1% work bench weighting. Then monitor and go from there. As you say, even if the ROIC's pull-in to the teen's range, that should provide a fine result over time for shareholders.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2018, 11:57:40 AM by longlake95 »