Author Topic: CTL - CenturyLink  (Read 33953 times)

Spekulatius

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #10 on: February 07, 2017, 05:13:15 PM »
No Valuehalla, my zero-value post above was mostly just a joke for those of us who remember ValueCarl, a different poster who loved LVLT with all of his heart / soul.

I think Spek's comment above is very clear, so not sure what you were asking him....  He expressed no opinion on CTL/LVLT, but when people start making comments (which he quoted for clarity) that the "dividend is safe" that is generally when it no longer is safe.

I owned LVLT briefly years back for a nice gain, but haven't followed for years, I will step out of your discussion now.


Nothing more to say on LVLT / CTL, good luck!

Ben is correct, my statement was not specific to CTL/LVLT. In general, I believe that if management overemphasizes a point, especially something sensitive to many investors like the holy sacred dividend, often the opposite of what they state is about to happen.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.


Valuehalla

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #11 on: February 08, 2017, 05:10:48 AM »
Hi Sepk, from the side of the management - to my mind - their remark concerning the dividend was just a marginal note, not something overemphazised. In the presentation it is one sentence.

But after the news of the acquisition came out, most third-party comments were done concerning the sustainability of the dividend; maybe because at this time the dividend-rate of 10% was extremly high. Today it is 8,7 %.

A negative comment that the dividend is not sustainable - as i remaind it -  just from Jim Cramer (CNBC), but in the newstext that i have read, not any details was mentioned why he thinks so. All other comments were positiv, that the combined company can pay the dividend now and in the long run.

Today after marketbell quartalfigures will come out and maybe we will know more.
« Last Edit: February 08, 2017, 08:23:01 AM by Valuehalla »
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Valuehalla

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #12 on: February 08, 2017, 03:26:51 PM »
Figures are out:

LVLT
constant revenue, improvement realized concerning FCF and adj EBITA as expected for 2016 ..... As a longterm shareholder I am very happy with these results.

http://s1.q4cdn.com/840339377/files/doc_downloads/4Q16-Earnings/4Q16_External-Presentation_2017-02-08_FINAL_LVLT.pdf

CTL

shrinking revenue 4,29B in Q4 = -4,2 %, 17,47B FY in 2016 = -2,2%
But guidance for 2017 seems very positiv to me, they expect to stop the decrease of revenue. In the Q&A part of conferencecall they confirmed this positiv "U-turn" view, that they can stop the decrease. We will see...

http://ir.centurylink.com/Cache/1001219848.PDF?Y=&O=PDF&D=&fid=1001219848&T=&iid=4057179

The dividend was no subject in the conference call, not any sign that they will reduce it and step back from their note, that they plan to maintain it.
« Last Edit: February 08, 2017, 04:05:34 PM by Valuehalla »
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longinvestor

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #13 on: February 08, 2017, 04:09:24 PM »
>$1B in FCF for the year, doubling for the past few years. They have $1.8 B cash on hand and the $9 B in NOL's. Given that this company was pretty much written off, that is something indeed. If someone stopped watching this around 2008 and looked at it now, they would be rubbing their eyes in disbelief. The stock price performance since then reflects the turnaround.

The sale to "someone" makes sense given that they cannot double the FCF again and revenue growth is non-existent. Wishing that someone was not CTL! They stink, look at their history and projections. Makes you wonder how and why capital is returned to shareholders! CTL desperately needs LVLT to maintain the divvy, even if it is for a few years. Imagine that!   

Valuehalla

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #14 on: February 08, 2017, 04:53:32 PM »
Longinvestor, you are totally right with LVLT, CEO Jeff Storey has delivered !

LVLT: 1B FCF, 3B EBITA and just 34 B marketcap .... compare this to BRK. Very very cheap !
And the businessmodel seems very stabel or likely softly increasing. (For 1017 they expect up to 13 % increase in FCF.)

I wish and expect Jeff Storey (born 1960) to be the next CEO of CTL, when Glen Post (born 1952) will retire.
I am not sure if CTL is in a bad shape in the longrun with LVLT in combination...I am positiv on it.
LVLT will be the Sparta-phalanx inside CTL.
« Last Edit: February 08, 2017, 05:20:09 PM by Valuehalla »
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Valuehalla

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #15 on: February 09, 2017, 07:11:39 AM »
Just loaded the next bulk of CTL in my portfolio for 24,26 US$  ;D = 8,9 % dividendrate

From my LVLT/CTL position I have now 40 % in LVLT and 60% in CTL. A few LVLTs i swapped yesterday in CTLs.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2017, 07:43:32 AM by Valuehalla »
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constructive

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #16 on: February 09, 2017, 11:44:06 AM »
The combined company will have $26B market cap and $41B debt, supported by FCFF of $4.9B. The growth profile of the combined company looks mediocre at best. I think the equity is quite risky and probably not a good value.

Valuehalla

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #17 on: February 10, 2017, 02:56:36 AM »
I found the following figures:

Netdebt  LVLT  9,2 B + CTL  19,7 B = 28,9 B

FCF (combined) 3,1 to 4 B

I cannot see any connection of marketcap and debt. Based on the CTL price of yesterday the markercap of the combined company would be app 26,7 B. The lower the marketcap, the better the deal. This is why i added again CTL yesterday.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2017, 03:35:37 AM by Valuehalla »
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longinvestor

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #18 on: February 10, 2017, 05:27:21 AM »
I found the following figures:

Netdebt  LVLT  9,2 B + CTL  19,7 B = 28,9 B

FCF (combined) 3,1 to 4 B

I cannot see any connection of marketcap and debt. Based on the CTL price of yesterday the markercap of the combined company would be app 26,7 B. The lower the marketcap, the better the deal. This is why i added again CTL yesterday.

They are taking on an additional $10B for deal financing. To pay for the $26 cash part of the deal. They are conserving the cash on hand plus counting on the NOL s and Synergies to protect the dividend for a few years. If there is no cash drain post deal, they will be in a position to lower the debt ratio. Why they picked Sunit for the job. He'll be playing the same role - deleverage. So for LVLT holders nothing changes. This will go on for a while, a defensive cost game  The combined heft could have some benefits, especially in the enterprise side. But that's a long way away. They need to keep returning capital, deleveraging.  Looks like CTL holders' a$$es will be saved. By LVLT!
« Last Edit: February 10, 2017, 05:48:52 AM by longinvestor »

Valuehalla

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #19 on: February 10, 2017, 07:12:16 AM »
« Last Edit: February 11, 2017, 05:31:24 AM by Valuehalla »
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