Author Topic: CTL - CenturyLink  (Read 73651 times)

Valuehalla

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #220 on: September 06, 2018, 10:43:25 AM »
Sunit Patel, CFO, CenturyLink, today took part in Bank of America - Merrill Lynch 2018 Media, Communications and Entertainment Conference:

- Strong commitment on the dividend. They are able and willing to maintain it.
- Expecting growing EBIDTA over the next years.
- Exercised restraint on the revenue development, sounded to me like expecting further shrinking revenue, but due to synergies and cost savings better margins, better EBITDA, FCF
- 5G, Dark Fiber, On-Net buildings, SD WAN as positive business drivers for the future
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walkie518

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #221 on: September 06, 2018, 11:29:20 AM »
Sunit Patel, CFO, CenturyLink, today took part in Bank of America - Merrill Lynch 2018 Media, Communications and Entertainment Conference:

- Strong commitment on the dividend. They are able and willing to maintain it.
- Expecting growing EBIDTA over the next years.
- Exercised restraint on the revenue development, sounded to me like expecting further shrinking revenue, but due to synergies and cost savings better margins, better EBITDA, FCF
- 5G, Dark Fiber, On-Net buildings, SD WAN as positive business drivers for the future
buying more?

Valuehalla

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #222 on: September 06, 2018, 02:10:46 PM »
For sure its still a buy. Compare marketcap and FCF!

For myself, i have enough, app. 10 % of my portfolio is in CTL now. I keep it and enjoy the dividend. If price would be tomorrow above 31, i will sell or reduce the position.
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Valuehalla

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #223 on: September 13, 2018, 04:12:36 PM »
A report about the new simplified consumer-offer "Price for Life"

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4205519-next-centurylinks-10-percent-yield
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Valuehalla

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« Last Edit: October 08, 2018, 11:58:15 AM by Valuehalla »
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petec

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #225 on: September 25, 2018, 02:03:56 AM »
How much does this worry you?

Valuehalla

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #226 on: September 25, 2018, 03:50:45 AM »
Doenst worry me at all. If Jeff Storey would leave additionally, it would worry me.
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longinvestor

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #227 on: September 25, 2018, 06:06:32 AM »
I will worry if they change the tune he sang as recently as last week. So far nothing but greener pastures for him. Wildcard could be if they ink some revenue deal with TMUS. Or something bigger with Masa down the road.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2018, 06:08:38 AM by longinvestor »

petec

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #228 on: November 02, 2018, 10:18:49 AM »
So after spending a lot of time trying to understand the downside I’ve started to think more about the “what if it all goes right” scenario.

1) margins rise 500-700bps off a base of 36%. Round numbers, that gets you to 9-10bn in ebitda. At those levels free cash flow after the dividend is $1-2bn and you need to pay down $1-4.5bn of debt to get to the middle of the 3-4x target leverage range. So best case scenario you can start buying back stock in about a year.

2) clearly there are legacy revenues that will continue to decline. But, data is the fastest growing thing on earth today (I heard an IBM stat that 90% of the data on earth was created in the last 2 years, and we’ve barely got started). If you own the pipes the data flows down is it *really* so hard to believe you might be able to grow revenues at a couple of percent a year? And if you can do that, maybe you can grow ebitda at 5%. Not in the next couple of years, when ebitda growth will come from margins not revenues + operating leverage. But long term.

3) if you can grow ebitda at 5% or $500m a year, you can borrow $1.75bn to keep at 3.5x levered. Add FCF after the dividend and you get to a buyback of $3.5bn in round numbers. That’s 15% of the company, annually, at the current price. In addition to a 10% dividend.

4) Would that company trade at 10x FCF? 15x? That would be a double or a triple.

I’m not saying this is a base case, but one has to frame upside as well as downside. Please shoot holes in this - I want to know why it can’t happen.

petec

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #229 on: November 02, 2018, 10:19:33 AM »
I will worry if they change the tune he sang as recently as last week. So far nothing but greener pastures for him. Wildcard could be if they ink some revenue deal with TMUS. Or something bigger with Masa down the road.

How would you envisage a revenue deal with TMUS working?