Author Topic: CTL - CenturyLink  (Read 75385 times)

longinvestor

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #200 on: May 10, 2018, 07:01:18 AM »
Congratulations to longs. CTL just appears to have overcome the cloud over the merger. That 15% divvy is looking nicer. CDN revenues went up 27% this Qtr. Appears to be driven by security services, similar to Akamaiís performance. Cyber security could be a nice opportunity here. Timing could not be better.


Valuehalla

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #201 on: May 10, 2018, 08:09:59 AM »
Everything looks great to me.

Like during the last years of LVLT Storey and Patel delivered what they have promised. And what they have promised yesterday in the conferencecall sounds excellent for the future. 

I am happy to be invested in CTL with a large part of my portfolio.

My pricetarget remains at more than 31 US$ per share. Waiting to reach the pricetarget, i enjoy 12 % dividend.

I have just also updated a little my remarks from yesterday, on the Q1 figures.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2018, 09:13:40 AM by Valuehalla »
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JayGatsby

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #202 on: May 10, 2018, 11:29:21 PM »
Which management team will lead the company going forward?

Has anyone long CTL actually done business with them? After a week of trying to get internet service from them for a small business we've decided to just use a Verizon hotspot. (Our unit was never individually wired, which I told them when I first called (otherwise I wouldn't have had to call in the first place). The sales guy spent a week trying to cross/upsell various things (like "long-distance"), before the installer out, took 2 minutes in the unit and said the unit was never wired and it was beyond what he could do). With mobile data becoming cheaper and faster I can't see this not becoming more common. The rates CTL charges for "business" internet are really high, while wireless companies don't make this distinction (businesses usually actually get significantly cheaper rates).

Valuehalla

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #203 on: May 22, 2018, 05:29:54 PM »
Prem Watsa / Fairfax Financial increased its holding of CTL in Q1 by 29 %. It is now the 7th largest position in the portfolio of FFH with 2,3% of the portfolio.
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petec

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #204 on: June 19, 2018, 04:56:41 AM »
Valuehalla would you mind sharing how you get to $31? And do you know the $ value of the FFH position?

Valuehalla

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #205 on: June 19, 2018, 05:56:13 AM »
Hello Petec, thx for adding questions

1) FFH was holding on 31th March 2018 1,847100 Mio CTL shares, today a 18 US$ = 33,24 Mio US$; that was an increase of 29,6% to the previous quarter. Source Dataroma.

2) CTL pricetarget of 31 US$ is my individual valuation. In case of 31 US$ the MarketCap would be 33,45 B; now 19,56B. According to the free cash flow (after capex & tax) of 3,2B per year, app. 10 times valuation seems reasonable to me. My individual estimation is based on many aspects. If the price woule be tomorrow higher than 31 US$ i would probably sell my position. As long as it is not, i keep my position and enjoy 12 % dividend paid on my account.

The danger that the LVLT merger or the businessmodel (legacy revenues) will fail is off the table to my opinion. Next Q figures will show, that the new management is able to grow FCF and EBITDA, as they did in LVLT stand alone before.
« Last Edit: June 19, 2018, 06:06:34 AM by Valuehalla »
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petec

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #206 on: June 19, 2018, 07:35:22 AM »
Thanks. My only issue with that is that the $3.2bn in FCF you use includes some tax payments and other things that look like one-offs to me. Unless we know they are recurring, I prefer a FCF figure of about $2.7bn.

As for the multiple, 10x is very reasonable IF they can get FCF growing sustainably (which means the concerns about the capital structure go away). I agree that is looking more likely.

So, 2.7*10=$27bn, $25...still a good upside.

Valuehalla

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #207 on: July 10, 2018, 01:08:58 PM »
CTL closed today above 20 US$ per share.
By that CTL delivered a great winning streck during the last 30 days, as it rised 12,5 % in that time, clearly outpreforming the S&P 500 (+0,37%).

The Q2 figures will be published on 9th August after the bell.

Revenue slightly above 6 B for Q2 would be a great sign, which would enable to top 24B for the full year 2018. This means, the shrinking of the revenue, caused mainly be the legacy customer revenue of CTL, would be overcome.

FCF shall come in around 810 M for Q2.

My target price remains 31 US$.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2018, 01:18:07 PM by Valuehalla »
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petec

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #208 on: July 11, 2018, 03:41:15 AM »

By that CTL delivered a great winning streck during the last 30 days, as it rised 12,5 % in that time.


I know - bloody annoying - I only bought half of what I wanted ;)

Valuehalla

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #209 on: July 11, 2018, 05:02:16 PM »
Mason Hawkins on CTL

from minute 21.10 on
and from minute 33.18 on

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgAsaXGKOJs
« Last Edit: July 11, 2018, 05:27:57 PM by Valuehalla »
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