Author Topic: DIS - Disney  (Read 46669 times)

Spekulatius

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Re: DIS - Disney
« Reply #100 on: March 21, 2019, 03:28:59 PM »
6% revenue growth, from a base  that wasn’t depressed  in 2008 isn’t too bad. revenue growth / share was even better since they bought back a considerable amount of stock ((~20%+ of outstanding, but I could be off).
Both AMCX and DISCA had untapped pricing power in 2008 that made it easy to grow for a couple of years until this fizzled out in or around 2013. DIS flatlined (or worse) since 2015, but they did grow earnings since then. DISCA bought a lot of revenue with Scripps (which was dilutive) and Eurosport and another foreign TV station. DIS bought Marvel, Lucasfilm and now the Twenty century studio. I believe they are better positioned than DISCA and AMCX, but the latter could pot. be purchased by a larger player.

I think DIS can be compared to BRK in a roundabout way ,as they have become the go to home for premier entertainment property/ IP, while BRK is a permanent home for any private company where the owner compares about the LT prosperity more so than the sales price.
« Last Edit: March 21, 2019, 08:27:52 PM by Spekulatius »
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DooDiligence

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Re: DIS - Disney
« Reply #101 on: March 21, 2019, 03:38:02 PM »
:

-ESPN has very much under-performed as people move away from sports TV. All the major sports networks offer subscription services, and online viewership is growing. IMHO this was a bad purchase.



I disagree pretty strongly on ESPN being a bad purchase. They paid $19 B for cap cities in 1996. After multiple years of decline, operating income from the media networks segment (which is almost all stuff they got with cap cities, biggest items are ESPN and ABC) was $6.6 billion in 2018.

They've reinvested the ESPN tsunami of cash into buying Marvel/Lucasfilm, and new parks, hotels, and cruise ships. The fact that it's declining now doesn't make it a bad purchase 23 years ago. I suspect (but haven't verified) that even if espn went to zero tomorrow the IRR on that acquisition would look pretty good.

Disney is like a giant money triangle.
Healthcare 32.7% - CVS DVA EW NVO // BRK.B - 20.6% // Media & Communication 8.3% - CHTR DIS

Drinkers & Smokers 7.5% - ABEV MO // Auto's & Oil 12.4% - CLB GPC VDE // Tech 0.0%

%'s held @ MV 06/18/2019 minus 18.3% investable cash

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LC

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Re: DIS - Disney
« Reply #102 on: March 21, 2019, 03:44:48 PM »
:

-ESPN has very much under-performed as people move away from sports TV. All the major sports networks offer subscription services, and online viewership is growing. IMHO this was a bad purchase.



I disagree pretty strongly on ESPN being a bad purchase.

You are right and I take it back - I was unclear. It was a very good purchase for reasons over the history of Disney ownership, for reasons you mention. My (very admittedly unclear) meaning was it is not the cash cow it was 10 years ago.
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rogermunibond

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Re: DIS - Disney
« Reply #103 on: March 21, 2019, 07:10:39 PM »
LC - glad you clarified on ESPN.  If anything the biggest error was not buying out Hearst's 20% stake in ESPN any years ago. Back when Buffett was on the ABC/Cap Cities board and voted against it.

2010 marked the downturn in ESPN subs from 100M and at the same time under John Skipper, ESPN committed big capital investments in NFL and NBA program rights.

It's still a cash cow, just not the growth machine it was in the previous 20 years.

Iger has turned Studio and Parks into growth engines now through smart capital allocation in Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm and Disney Shangai, US parks refresh, and Disney cruise. He's done a fantastic job.

LC

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Spekulatius

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Re: DIS - Disney
« Reply #105 on: March 22, 2019, 03:57:56 AM »
https://www.ign.com/articles/2019/03/21/fox-layoffs-begin-following-disney-merger-4000-jobs-expected-to-be-cut

Probably no surprise.

When I started working in the US after about 2 years, I went through a merger where the company I worked for was acquired, and my first boss explained me how this works for employees:

“We work for a whorehouse that just got sold to the highest bidder. The only certainty is that we get screwed.”

He is a wise man.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

DCG

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Re: DIS - Disney
« Reply #106 on: March 22, 2019, 06:16:18 AM »
Not sure ESPN was a bad purchase, but I feel like Disney is ruining ESPN and has turned it into a sports version of BuzzFeed.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2019, 09:37:07 AM by DCG »

Liberty

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Re: DIS - Disney
« Reply #107 on: March 22, 2019, 06:23:46 AM »
From the little that I know of it, ESPN seems like one of the best purchases ever. It was thrown in as an after-thought in previous deals with Capital Cities/ABC, and grew into one of the biggest media franchises in the world. It's facing headwinds now because it made a lot from being bundled, but it's probably still a thousand-bagger and can still be a cash cow for a while longer even if it declines.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2019, 08:01:05 AM by Liberty »
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rogermunibond

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Re: DIS - Disney
« Reply #108 on: March 22, 2019, 07:19:56 AM »
In the latest 10-K DIS reported 86M ESPN subs.  From 2010 100M ESPN subs.  In 17 and 18 they had stabilized somewhat at 88M with MVPDs but as those promotional rates fall off ESPN subs are dropping again.

OTOH ESPN+ is doing all the right things - going after niche UFC, Serie A, Championship English soccer, etc.  They will probably try to bid for online EPL or LaLiga and take that from BEIN or NBC.

DooDiligence

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Re: DIS - Disney
« Reply #109 on: March 22, 2019, 07:38:40 AM »
In the latest 10-K DIS reported 86M ESPN subs.  From 2010 100M ESPN subs.  In 17 and 18 they had stabilized somewhat at 88M with MVPDs but as those promotional rates fall off ESPN subs are dropping again.

OTOH ESPN+ is doing all the right things - going after niche UFC, Serie A, Championship English soccer, etc.  They will probably try to bid for online EPL or LaLiga and take that from BEIN or NBC.

More Footy, yay!
Healthcare 32.7% - CVS DVA EW NVO // BRK.B - 20.6% // Media & Communication 8.3% - CHTR DIS

Drinkers & Smokers 7.5% - ABEV MO // Auto's & Oil 12.4% - CLB GPC VDE // Tech 0.0%

%'s held @ MV 06/18/2019 minus 18.3% investable cash

i trumpet my ignorance

https://twitter.com/tunawish