Author Topic: DIS - Disney  (Read 40880 times)

bizaro86

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Re: DIS - Disney
« Reply #110 on: March 22, 2019, 07:58:46 AM »
I don't see the business model for ESPN+

Because sports rights are regional, they only really have a US business with their IP. ESPN peaked around 100 MM subs. Even if you assume (generously, imo) that a quarter of those people are very interested in sports and will buy espn plus, I get the following math.

25 MM 12 months $5/month = $1.5 billion in revenue per year.

They're paying $300MM/year for rights just to UFC. That doesn't include producing and distributing UFC, or any of their other costs (other sports, credit card fees, running the app, etc).

Disney+ is different, because the market is worldwide and they (eventually) own those rights for all their content.

I actually think they'd be better off bundling all their other content together. Include abc/fox together with disney/star wars/marvel/discovery and you have something for everyone.

The target market for streaming 15 seasons of greys anatomy is different than that for disney junior, but together with their tent pole ip that's a Netflix killer.


rogermunibond

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Re: DIS - Disney
« Reply #111 on: March 22, 2019, 09:54:31 AM »
I agree that it's hard to see how ESPN+ works.  But ESPN has to have an OTT in the event that they lose too many cable subs and to compete for OTT sports subs against Dazn, Fubo, B/R Live etc.

There are a few sports rights that are global in nature. NBA and football (soccer) specifically Premier League, La Liga, and Champions League.  UFC and MMA are somewhat global as well like boxing.  Maybe cricket?



estoybien

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Re: DIS - Disney
« Reply #112 on: April 12, 2019, 08:14:11 AM »
I'm not an ESPN+ or Hulu subscriber, but I'll def get Disney+ (I have kids), and I might be willing to top-up to a Disney+/Hulu/ESPN+ package depending on the pricing. I don't even know what ESPN is like anymore, it's been so long.

re ESPN, is ESPN+ more for actual sports watching, or do ppl also watch SportsCenter and other talking-heads/highlights shows on it just like they did on the cable network? Seems like ESPN in its heyday was very sticky, I had friends who'd just have it on for hours.

CorpRaider

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Re: DIS - Disney
« Reply #113 on: April 12, 2019, 10:44:45 AM »
Doesn't ESPN+ just have like a ancillary things that aren't on one of the ESPN networks?  The disney+ name is confusing/suboptimal to me, coming from that perspective. 

rogermunibond

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Re: DIS - Disney
« Reply #114 on: April 12, 2019, 10:45:39 AM »
DisPlus setting a stake at $7/mo or $70/year makes it nearly impossible for Netflix to raise prices again, IMO.

So now, consider that if we enter a recession in the next 3-4 years, Netflix will still be needing to borrow for its content spend and refinance existing debt at higher rates as the bond markets tighten up.  Given that, should the Ebitda multiple on Netflix be a little lower than 300+?

rogermunibond

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Re: DIS - Disney
« Reply #115 on: April 12, 2019, 10:51:22 AM »
As if Disney Plus investor day wasn't enough.  The Star Wars IX teaser trailer dropped today at SW Celebration.

Holy crap!

Jurgis

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Re: DIS - Disney
« Reply #116 on: April 12, 2019, 11:02:26 AM »
DisPlus setting a stake at $7/mo or $70/year makes it nearly impossible for Netflix to raise prices again, IMO.

Tell that to my wife.  8)

Netflix is not gonna be cancelled even if it goes to $20 per month.
We likely won't sub DisPlus even at $7 per month.

Opinions may change at any time and all that.
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo
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rogermunibond

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Re: DIS - Disney
« Reply #117 on: April 12, 2019, 11:14:18 AM »
Jurgis - how does NFLX price differentiate your household from the marginal household?  In NA, there are about 20-30M household that have cable and NFLX.  And then about 30M households that are BB only with NFLX.


PatientCheetah

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Re: DIS - Disney
« Reply #118 on: April 12, 2019, 11:21:29 AM »
As an adult, I do not want to watch PG rated shows all the time. Can't live with DisneyPlus solo.
risk as little as possible until all the stars have aligned

Longer Term: FB MSFT BABA JD YRD

Jurgis

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Re: DIS - Disney
« Reply #119 on: April 12, 2019, 11:27:54 AM »
Jurgis - how does NFLX price differentiate your household from the marginal household?  In NA, there are about 20-30M household that have cable and NFLX.  And then about 30M households that are BB only with NFLX.

I don't know how our situation compares to others.
We don't have cable.
We have NFLX streaming, Amazon Prime and NFLX DVD service for new/not-available-on-streaming movies. I was for cancelling NFLX streaming, but was overruled.  8) However, if Amazon Prime starts showing more ads, I might change my mind and become pro-NFLX again.  8)

Things may change a lot if/when NFLX DVD service shuts down. I'll have to think then how to get new/not-available-on-streaming movies. I think DVD service will be closed within 5 years.

Edit: DIS movies were all on NFLX based on their agreement with NFLX. Once they are not on NFLX, I might get them through NFLX DVD service. I get some HBO content through DVD service. So DVD service is somewhat key factor in my decisions to subscribe or not subscribe to anything else.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2019, 11:32:25 AM by Jurgis »
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo
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"American History X", "Milk", "The Insider", "Dirty Money", "LBJ"