Corner of Berkshire & Fairfax Message Board

General Category => Investment Ideas => Topic started by: klarmaniac on September 11, 2015, 12:38:07 PM

Title: DWDP - Dow DuPont
Post by: klarmaniac on September 11, 2015, 12:38:07 PM
Sorry if there's already a board for DOW, I searched but didn't see one. I'm interested in both overall opinions on DOW and specific opinions on the upcoming exchange offer:
http://www.dow.com/news/press-releases/dow%20initiates%20exchange%20offer%20for%20chlorine%20value%20chain%20businesses
Thanks :)
Title: Re: DWDP - Dow DuPont
Post by: John Hjorth on March 27, 2017, 04:47:17 AM
European Commision: Mergers: Commission clears merger between Dow and DuPont, subject to conditions (http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-17-772_en.htm).
Title: Re: DWDP - Dow DuPont
Post by: ugadawg_98 on July 08, 2018, 02:28:37 PM
Anyone involved here in this slow-motion breakup play? Iíve been opportunistically adding in the high 50s to low 60s over the past 18 months.

Thoughts?
Title: Re: DWDP - Dow DuPont
Post by: cameronfen on July 08, 2018, 06:03:30 PM
Anyone involved here in this slow-motion breakup play? Iíve been opportunistically adding in the high 50s to low 60s over the past 18 months.

Thoughts?

Didn't look closely but the agriculture division goes from 4 players controlling 95% of the corn, soybeans and cotton traits in the US, to two players after this merger and the Monsanto Bayer merger. 
Title: Re: DWDP - Dow DuPont
Post by: wisowis on July 08, 2018, 07:54:06 PM
I have some $90 Jan 2020 call options.

Here is the napkin thesis from the Third Point Q1 2018 letter:

Quote
DWDP continues to be one of the fundís largest positions. We remain confident in the
underlying business fundamentals and CEO Ed Breenís plan to create value. Despite a series
of positive developments following the mergerís close last August, the discount to intrinsic
value has widened. Several prominent sell‐side analysts have noted the similarities between
DWDPís three future spins (Materials Co, Specialty Co, and Ag Co) and three publicly traded
peers: LyondellBasell, 3M, and Monsanto. Consensus 2020 EBITDA for DWDP is $23 billion
Ė coincidentally the sum of 2020 estimates for LYB, MMM and MON is nearly identical at
$22.5 billion. However, the combined enterprise value for these three companies is $234
billion, about 40% higher than DWDPís current enterprise value of $167 billion. Simply
applying a similar EV to DWDP (which we believe is justified) implies a stock price of $92,
nearly 50% higher than current levels. We expect this value gap to close over the next 12
months as synergies are realized and the three spin‐offs are finalized.
Title: Re: DWDP - Dow DuPont
Post by: peterHK on July 09, 2018, 07:57:37 AM
They're cheap, and Breen has a lot of levers he can pull to increase value. They're waiting on share buybacks for the rating agencies to inform them as to how much cash needs to be at the spinco's to maintain investment grade ratings.

I like the Dec 2020 $70 LEAP's hear as options tend to misprice these sort of spin scenarios.
Title: Re: DWDP - Dow DuPont
Post by: BG2008 on July 09, 2018, 08:54:01 AM
I have some $90 Jan 2020 call options.

Here is the napkin thesis from the Third Point Q1 2018 letter:

Quote
DWDP continues to be one of the fundís largest positions. We remain confident in the
underlying business fundamentals and CEO Ed Breenís plan to create value. Despite a series
of positive developments following the mergerís close last August, the discount to intrinsic
value has widened. Several prominent sell‐side analysts have noted the similarities between
DWDPís three future spins (Materials Co, Specialty Co, and Ag Co) and three publicly traded
peers: LyondellBasell, 3M, and Monsanto. Consensus 2020 EBITDA for DWDP is $23 billion
Ė coincidentally the sum of 2020 estimates for LYB, MMM and MON is nearly identical at
$22.5 billion. However, the combined enterprise value for these three companies is $234
billion, about 40% higher than DWDPís current enterprise value of $167 billion. Simply
applying a similar EV to DWDP (which we believe is justified) implies a stock price of $92,
nearly 50% higher than current levels. We expect this value gap to close over the next 12
months as synergies are realized and the three spin‐offs are finalized.

Isn't the $90 a bit too out of the money.  I get it that you're only paying like $1-2 for that call.  Wouldn't the ATM Jan 2020 call be more interesting (granted, less upside in terms of ROIC)?  When you get to $90, you've made 250%. 
Title: Re: DWDP - Dow DuPont
Post by: gokou3 on July 09, 2018, 11:15:56 AM
I have some $90 Jan 2020 call options.

Here is the napkin thesis from the Third Point Q1 2018 letter:

Quote
DWDP continues to be one of the fundís largest positions. We remain confident in the
underlying business fundamentals and CEO Ed Breenís plan to create value. Despite a series
of positive developments following the mergerís close last August, the discount to intrinsic
value has widened. Several prominent sell‐side analysts have noted the similarities between
DWDPís three future spins (Materials Co, Specialty Co, and Ag Co) and three publicly traded
peers: LyondellBasell, 3M, and Monsanto. Consensus 2020 EBITDA for DWDP is $23 billion
Ė coincidentally the sum of 2020 estimates for LYB, MMM and MON is nearly identical at
$22.5 billion. However, the combined enterprise value for these three companies is $234
billion, about 40% higher than DWDPís current enterprise value of $167 billion. Simply
applying a similar EV to DWDP (which we believe is justified) implies a stock price of $92,
nearly 50% higher than current levels. We expect this value gap to close over the next 12
months as synergies are realized and the three spin‐offs are finalized.

I have just taken a 2-minute look but how is EV = $167B?  The market cap is close to that number plus there's another ~$60B of ST+LT debt (per Yahoo Finance).
Title: Re: DWDP - Dow DuPont
Post by: peterHK on July 09, 2018, 12:10:01 PM
I have some $90 Jan 2020 call options.

Here is the napkin thesis from the Third Point Q1 2018 letter:

Quote
DWDP continues to be one of the fundís largest positions. We remain confident in the
underlying business fundamentals and CEO Ed Breenís plan to create value. Despite a series
of positive developments following the mergerís close last August, the discount to intrinsic
value has widened. Several prominent sell‐side analysts have noted the similarities between
DWDPís three future spins (Materials Co, Specialty Co, and Ag Co) and three publicly traded
peers: LyondellBasell, 3M, and Monsanto. Consensus 2020 EBITDA for DWDP is $23 billion
Ė coincidentally the sum of 2020 estimates for LYB, MMM and MON is nearly identical at
$22.5 billion. However, the combined enterprise value for these three companies is $234
billion, about 40% higher than DWDPís current enterprise value of $167 billion. Simply
applying a similar EV to DWDP (which we believe is justified) implies a stock price of $92,
nearly 50% higher than current levels. We expect this value gap to close over the next 12
months as synergies are realized and the three spin‐offs are finalized.

I have just taken a 2-minute look but how is EV = $167B?  The market cap is close to that number plus there's another ~$60B of ST+LT debt (per Yahoo Finance).

This was probably written in March when shares were at ~$61.

They have $34bn in debt, $10bn in cash, and ~$18bn in pension liabilities, so net that's only ~$42bn in debt, and they're generating a lot of cash so that will shrink quickly. 
Title: Re: DWDP - Dow DuPont
Post by: ugadawg_98 on July 27, 2018, 08:56:23 AM
Starting to move up. I had started accumulating in high $50s and stopped around $65. Got nice-sized position, but wanted more.

Catalysts and positive news flow should be coming, but canít make myself pay up.
Title: Re: DWDP - Dow DuPont
Post by: globalfinancepartners on July 27, 2018, 09:22:19 AM
Did the stock trade in the high 50's?

Starting to move up. I had started accumulating in high $50s and stopped around $65. Got nice-sized position, but wanted more.

Catalysts and positive news flow should be coming, but canít make myself pay up.
Title: Re: DWDP - Dow DuPont
Post by: ugadawg_98 on July 28, 2018, 09:42:25 AM
When I started buying the old DD shares in 2017, I was getting an effective cost in the new shares in the $50s (DD converted to DWDP at a 1.28 ratio, if I recall). Subsequent purchases were more expensive.

I think itís still very cheap, I just have a mental block about paying successively higher prices. On a break to low 60s, Iíd add more, but absent some market turmoil, Iím not sure weíll get there. Positive catalysts getting closer.
Title: Re: DWDP - Dow DuPont
Post by: Spekulatius on July 29, 2018, 05:32:50 AM
Sent chemicals and early cycle business? I rarely have seen large gains with chemicals late in the cycle. I have a soft spot for BASF (BAS.DE). The first stock I ever ďownedĒ via long term rights (Optionsscheine).
Title: Re: DWDP - Dow DuPont
Post by: peterHK on October 10, 2018, 06:34:15 PM
Anybody else think this is cheap here?
Title: Re: DWDP - Dow DuPontik
Post by: Spekulatius on October 11, 2018, 03:57:22 AM
Anybody else think this is cheap here?

10.5x EBITDA for a chemical business seems high. Even businessmen in protected niches like paint, trade at 11x and DWDP has a lotmof cyclical components. Peer EMN trades at 8.3x EBITDA and peer BASF at ~7x (óprobably a bit high ex their E&P and refinery business). The only business line within DWDP that deserves a higher multiple is Agro, but it seems to be a small part of the overall company.
Title: Re: DWDP - Dow DuPontik
Post by: Liberty on October 11, 2018, 06:09:54 AM
Anybody else think this is cheap here?

10.5x EBITDA for a chemical business seems high. Even businessmen in protected niches like paint, trade at 11x and DWDP has a lotmof cyclical components. Peer EMN trades at 8.3x EBITDA and peer BASF at ~7x (óprobably a bit high ex their E&P and refinery business). The only business line within DWDP that deserves a higher multiple is Agro, but it seems to be a small part of the overall company.

I think you're overlooking the specialty businesses, which will be what remain after they spin off the two other divisions.
Title: Re: DWDP - Dow DuPontik
Post by: peterHK on October 11, 2018, 06:43:17 AM
Anybody else think this is cheap here?

10.5x EBITDA for a chemical business seems high. Even businessmen in protected niches like paint, trade at 11x and DWDP has a lotmof cyclical components. Peer EMN trades at 8.3x EBITDA and peer BASF at ~7x (óprobably a bit high ex their E&P and refinery business). The only business line within DWDP that deserves a higher multiple is Agro, but it seems to be a small part of the overall company.

You're also forgetting that EBITDA is low because Dow in particular was poorly run. Almost every spin out from Dow goes on to massively improve margins , and Ed Breen has thus far been very good at delivering promised synergies pre-spin.

The other thing to remember is that capital intensity is going down because they're focusing more on brownfield projects, debottlenecking etc. rather than major capex, and that should translate into a higher justified EV/EBITDA multiple. I think combined DWDP can do ~52% FCF conversion from EBITDA whereas BASF is closer to 40% for instance.

The final thing you're forgetting is they have significant below the line earnings from affiliates that don't show in EBITDA, so you actually can't use EBITDA unless you're doing SOTP and then adding those affiliate earnings in. LTM that number was $1bn, so at say 8x earnings because they're commodity related, that's $8bn of value (or a little less than $4/share) that doesn't accrue to an EV/EBITDA valuation.
Title: Re: DWDP - Dow DuPont
Post by: Spekulatius on October 11, 2018, 10:00:25 AM
Thanks for above input, this is highly appreciated. I bought some BASFY today since I know this company well.
Title: Re: DWDP - Dow DuPont
Post by: Liberty on October 11, 2018, 10:31:34 AM
Breen has shown with Tyco that he knows how to clean up badly management companies and get the value out (divestitures, spin offs, refocusing R&D and capex, etc). It'll be interesting to see what he can do with these assets. The synergies so far are already pretty impressive.
Title: Re: DWDP - Dow DuPont
Post by: Liberty on October 22, 2018, 01:24:43 PM
http://www.dow-dupont.com/news-and-media/press-release-details/2018/DowDuPont-Announces-Filing-of-Initial-Form-10-Registration-Statement--for-Corteva-Agriscience/default.aspx

http://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001666700/c19dfce0-5b14-4d89-a622-85da979e872b.pdf

http://www.dow-dupont.com/news-and-media/press-release-details/2018/DowDuPont-Statement-on-Market-Activity/default.aspx
Title: Re: DWDP - Dow DuPont
Post by: peterHK on October 22, 2018, 01:54:02 PM
http://www.dow-dupont.com/news-and-media/press-release-details/2018/DowDuPont-Announces-Filing-of-Initial-Form-10-Registration-Statement--for-Corteva-Agriscience/default.aspx

http://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001666700/c19dfce0-5b14-4d89-a622-85da979e872b.pdf

http://www.dow-dupont.com/news-and-media/press-release-details/2018/DowDuPont-Statement-on-Market-Activity/default.aspx

Note that the write down doesn't affect guidance for the year. I think that was already priced in by the market is now killing anything with "the cycle" attached to it (semis, homebuilders, DWDP etc.). DWDP has headwinds now, but I think its incredibly undervalued here given catalysts, synergies etc.
Title: Re: DWDP - Dow DuPont
Post by: longlake95 on October 22, 2018, 03:43:35 PM
Agreed. Iím adding to the common and the leaps here, but itís not been a fun ride. I have a lot of admiration for Ed Breen.

Title: Re: DWDP - Dow DuPont
Post by: Liberty on November 01, 2018, 03:41:15 AM
Q3:

http://s21.q4cdn.com/813101928/files/doc_financials/2018/2018/Q3/3Q18-Earnings-Release.pdf

Quote
DowDuPont Reports Third Quarter 2018 Results
ē GAAP EPS from Continuing Operations of $0.21; Adj. EPS Increases 35% to $0.74
ē GAAP Net Income from Continuing Operations of $535MM; Op. EBITDA Up 19% to $3.8B
ē Net Sales Up 10% to $20.1B; Volume and Local Price Gains in All Divisions and All Regions
ē Announces New $3B Stock Buyback Program, Expected to be Complete by First Spin
ē Increases Cost Synergy Target to $3.6B; Raises Expected YoY Savings to $1.5B
ē Reaffirms FY18 Adj. EPS Guidance: Up Low-20s Percent

I posted a few things about it in this thread:

https://twitter.com/LibertyRPF/status/1057984861657579520