Author Topic: DVA DaVita HealthCare Partners  (Read 149027 times)

flesh

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Re: DVA DaVita HealthCare Partners
« Reply #470 on: February 16, 2018, 10:44:59 AM »
If I read it correctly, it looks like they would be allowed to make a 15% margin before interest, taxes, and headquarters.

If that's right, presumably, some facilities would be making substantially less and some substantially more. On the whole, it would be a bad thing. Unless they built a bunch of facilities that weren't being used to grow .

However, if a facility is underperorming/losing money and assuming cms is close to break even... is commercial really going to allow them to be charged more than the going rate in these cases? Hard to imagine.

If they don't allow that, than many current and future facilities would be closed/not built.... causing a serious proximity problem for patients. There's really no point in building some out that may take years to eek out a profit... or keep one open.

Anyways, I should read it again... just breezed through it.

I've said before, at some point, what's to stop any dialysis co from simply raising their costs considering the cost plus nature of this proposed legislation? They couldn't do it quickly, but they could come in high and raise costs slowly, deliberately.


Spekulatius

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Re: DVA DaVita HealthCare Partners
« Reply #471 on: February 16, 2018, 03:18:50 PM »
If I read it correctly, it looks like they would be allowed to make a 15% margin before interest, taxes, and headquarters.

If that's right, presumably, some facilities would be making substantially less and some substantially more. On the whole, it would be a bad thing. Unless they built a bunch of facilities that weren't being used to grow .

However, if a facility is underperorming/losing money and assuming cms is close to break even... is commercial really going to allow them to be charged more than the going rate in these cases? Hard to imagine.

If they don't allow that, than many current and future facilities would be closed/not built.... causing a serious proximity problem for patients. There's really no point in building some out that may take years to eek out a profit... or keep one open.

Anyways, I should read it again... just breezed through it.

I've said before, at some point, what's to stop any dialysis co from simply raising their costs considering the cost plus nature of this proposed legislation? They couldn't do it quickly, but they could come in high and raise costs slowly, deliberately.

They would need to collude with each other and the many smaller competitors to make this work. This  work ifnthetr is essentially only Fresenius and DaVita left. There is a point however to this argument, if you are the lowest cost provider, there is no point in lowering the cost even more, if the government truly runs this as a cost plus business.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

Cigarbutt

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Re: DVA DaVita HealthCare Partners
« Reply #472 on: February 22, 2018, 06:13:07 AM »
Trying to run various long term scenarios in terms of potential cost containment pressures.
Demand for dialysis will rise ++ (demographics, higher incidence of risk factors, probable absence of a suitable substitute) but the exposure to Medicare or equivalent is likely to remain high.
https://spectator.org/healthcare-spending-to-reach-5-7-trillion-by-2026/
https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/NationalHealthExpendData/Downloads/ForecastSummary.pdf

Something has to give.

walkie518

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Re: DVA DaVita HealthCare Partners
« Reply #473 on: February 22, 2018, 01:59:15 PM »
DaVita saves money for the system and closing locations could have a disastrous impact if too many patients are not on commercial plans. 

What happens if patients start going to hospitals for care?  Certainly, neither the carriers, government, or even hospitals would want this to happen, especially if the patient is in the initial window of ineligibility and otherwise does not have coverage. 

Commercial plans can and might get even more expensive to compensate, but current Medicare/aid reimbursement for ESRD patients is poor. 

It doesn't sound like the Trump administration wants to put more into healthcare?

At some point, something will give, but it's likely it hits the fan if Fresenius and DaVita start to close locations. 


rolling

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Re: DVA DaVita HealthCare Partners
« Reply #475 on: April 19, 2018, 05:59:27 AM »
First bought davita yesterday at 64...
It is the first buyback window after the announcement of the sale of HCP and it has pulled back a lot.  Low earnings multiple, lower tax rate, low net debt after the deal, cannibal, a big runaway for expansion (international), a growing client base and expectations of profit  after achieving scale in international markets.
It seems to me that the pricing headwinds might not be enought to counter all these pluses.
My usual portfolio: Highly concentrated (up to 3 or 4 positions) in smallcaps and microcaps.

cubsfan

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Re: DVA DaVita HealthCare Partners
« Reply #476 on: April 19, 2018, 10:40:34 AM »
All DVA needs to do is keep reloading on the stock buybacks with funds from
UHC deal. We should do just fine.

MrB

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Re: DVA DaVita HealthCare Partners
« Reply #477 on: April 19, 2018, 11:42:12 AM »
First bought davita yesterday at 64...
It is the first buyback window after the announcement of the sale of HCP and it has pulled back a lot.  Low earnings multiple, lower tax rate, low net debt after the deal, cannibal, a big runaway for expansion (international), a growing client base and expectations of profit  after achieving scale in international markets.
It seems to me that the pricing headwinds might not be enought to counter all these pluses.
When does the window start?

rolling

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Re: DVA DaVita HealthCare Partners
« Reply #478 on: April 19, 2018, 01:48:11 PM »
First bought davita yesterday at 64...
It is the first buyback window after the announcement of the sale of HCP and it has pulled back a lot.  Low earnings multiple, lower tax rate, low net debt after the deal, cannibal, a big runaway for expansion (international), a growing client base and expectations of profit  after achieving scale in international markets.
It seems to me that the pricing headwinds might not be enought to counter all these pluses.
When does the window start?
Sorry, I meant buyback blackout window. Apparently, "regulations under which companies refrain from discretionary stock buybacks for about five weeks before reporting earnings through the 48 hours that follow".
My usual portfolio: Highly concentrated (up to 3 or 4 positions) in smallcaps and microcaps.

sleepydragon

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Re: DVA DaVita HealthCare Partners
« Reply #479 on: April 19, 2018, 07:13:04 PM »
First bought davita yesterday at 64...
It is the first buyback window after the announcement of the sale of HCP and it has pulled back a lot.  Low earnings multiple, lower tax rate, low net debt after the deal, cannibal, a big runaway for expansion (international), a growing client base and expectations of profit  after achieving scale in international markets.
It seems to me that the pricing headwinds might not be enought to counter all these pluses.
When does the window start?
Sorry, I meant buyback blackout window. Apparently, "regulations under which companies refrain from discretionary stock buybacks for about five weeks before reporting earnings through the 48 hours that follow".

So won't it better to buy while the company is not buying, which will be during the blackout window, or even after the window ends?