Author Topic: 9984 - Softbank  (Read 58468 times)

ajc

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Re: 9984 - Softbank
« Reply #150 on: October 14, 2018, 03:12:55 PM »

SoftBank lines up bankers for record IPO of mobile unit
https://www.ft.com/content/61bb1bfa-ce28-11e8-b276-b9069bde0956

"According to people close to all three investment banks, the technology conglomerate led by Masayoshi Son is planning to complete the sale of between Y2.3tn and Y2.8tn ($20bn to $25bn) worth of shares in SoftBank’s mobile business by late December.
The majority of the issue is expected to be pitched at domestic investors."






ajc

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Re: 9984 - Softbank
« Reply #152 on: October 15, 2018, 05:02:00 AM »


Saudi risk?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-15/softbank-s-son-saudi-s-prince-and-a-22-billion-test-of-values?srnd=markets-vp



Yeah, my own thinking is a potential collapse of the Sprint/T-Mobile merger is a bigger valuation risk.

I don't think the current administration wants to pick a full-blown fight with the Saudi's. There's too much riding on their co-operation from Israel-Palestine, to Syria, to Iran, to ISIS, to oil prices. Maybe some high profile individuals could be sanctioned to start, but I'm not sure an overwhelming majority of US citizens would want some big blow-up if they understood what Saudi support means in the region. Better the lesser devil you know, is what I'd say the sensible view is from those in Washington.

If that doesn't happen, I think it'd be possible for Softbank to announce they'd take no more Saudi money and cash them out from the Vision Fund as soon as IPO's happen or big buyers can be found. The big solar deal in Saudi would be dead, but that's a small part of the current valuation thesis. Either way, I think Softbank could restructure their current commitments around any future US political moves.

As far as the upcoming Softbank IPO goes, I saw a report they'd be looking for a $90B market cap (https://www.livemint.com/Money/HgosgGJ7c2wJKwXRqilAZN/SoftBank-weighs-the-largest-public-listing-ever.html). After running some rough numbers, I figured that $75B or so was fairer given how KDDI and NTT are valued but that'd still be fine.

At current prices, that values their 75% ARM Holdings stake (worth $24B), their 80% Sprint stake (worth $20B), their 48% Yahoo Japan stake (worth $8B), the Vision Fund (call it a zero to be super conservative from an overall sum-of-the-parts perspective), and their 28% Alibaba stake (worth $105B) at less than $25B in total.
Even if you apply a 20% holding company discount while counting the Vision Fund as a zero, you're easily getting more than $100B worth of assets for $25B.

Seems like a decent margin of safety and relatively egregious mispricing.



ajc

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Re: 9984 - Softbank
« Reply #153 on: October 16, 2018, 06:14:46 AM »

Uber proposals value the company at $120 billion in a possible IPO: WSJ

At a $120B IPO price (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/16/uber-proposals-value-the-company-at-120-billion-in-a-possible-ipo-wsj.html), the Vision Fund would earn more than 2x on its 2017 bet.

They bought the Uber stake less than a year ago for $9.3B at a $54B blended valuation (http://fortune.com/2018/01/19/softbank-uber-statement-kalanick/).



UK

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Re: 9984 - Softbank
« Reply #154 on: August 19, 2019, 12:12:57 AM »
https://www.wsj.com/articles/softbank-to-lend-founder-and-employees-billions-to-invest-in-fund-11566051247

Unusual setup doubly exposes the Japanese company to a startup economy that is starting to show cracks

Spekulatius

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Re: 9984 - Softbank
« Reply #155 on: August 19, 2019, 04:09:13 AM »
One concern is that ARM is not doing well (value ~ 10- of their market cap). Their revenue growth has stalled  stalled and their earnings have shrunk dramatically. I think it may be worth far less than what they paid for. Also, they seemed to have segregated their Chinese business in a separate company. I guess that means that they can welcome the CCP to their management team.

However, with a LTV of 19%, they should be OK, as long as Alibaba does OK.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.