Author Topic: EGFEY - Eurobank  (Read 144759 times)

MrB

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Re: EGFEY - Eurobank
« Reply #410 on: February 08, 2016, 07:04:06 AM »
wow, at €0.43 eurobank is trading at 16% tbv.......

either greece and the euro are finished or investors are hyper nervous.....

http://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xfra/efgd/quote.html

You mean €0.38   :P

“There’s a complete buyers’ strike across the board today, ”  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-08/greek-stocks-head-for-lowest-level-since-1990-as-banks-tumble


TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: EGFEY - Eurobank
« Reply #411 on: February 10, 2016, 07:42:46 AM »
wow, at €0.43 eurobank is trading at 16% tbv.......

either greece and the euro are finished or investors are hyper nervous.....

http://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xfra/efgd/quote.html

You mean €0.38   :P

“There’s a complete buyers’ strike across the board today, ”  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-08/greek-stocks-head-for-lowest-level-since-1990-as-banks-tumble

Down another 10% to €0.345. Bizarre - I would have thought that all of the holders left would be strong-hands, but clearly people have needed to get out if they're selling it at a 65% loss from the recap...

Anyone have a source on recent flows to the banking sector. Are we seeing client deposits return after the recaps or is money still flowing out of the system? Also, anyone have a recent update on the capital controls?

rijk

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Re: EGFEY - Eurobank
« Reply #412 on: March 03, 2016, 12:44:26 AM »
2015 results

35% npl, 65% coverage
44% npe, 52% coverage
npe provision & collateral coverage 102%
tbv/share €2.45

plenty of work to be done but figures could be called cautiously optimistic?
« Last Edit: March 03, 2016, 01:00:09 AM by rijk »

muscleman

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Re: EGFEY - Eurobank
« Reply #413 on: March 03, 2016, 07:39:57 AM »
2015 results

35% npl, 65% coverage
44% npe, 52% coverage
npe provision & collateral coverage 102%
tbv/share €2.45

plenty of work to be done but figures could be called cautiously optimistic?

The results are weaker than Bank of Cyprus. Bank of Cyprus trades at a similar valuation but the economy is in a better shape. Also BoC/Hellenic are the duopolies. But in Greece there are four players.

Somehow BoC draws far less investor interest on this board. Any reasons?

TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: EGFEY - Eurobank
« Reply #414 on: March 03, 2016, 07:56:36 AM »
2015 results

35% npl, 65% coverage
44% npe, 52% coverage
npe provision & collateral coverage 102%
tbv/share €2.45

plenty of work to be done but figures could be called cautiously optimistic?

The results are weaker than Bank of Cyprus. Bank of Cyprus trades at a similar valuation but the economy is in a better shape. Also BoC/Hellenic are the duopolies. But in Greece there are four players.

Somehow BoC draws far less investor interest on this board. Any reasons?

Probably because of Prem and Ross' involvement. I'm not able to do the deep diligence needed to determine asset quality so the fact that there in it gets me more comfortable that someone has done that diligence for me.

That being said, the recent recap ought to leave as bad a taste in everyone's mouth as the bail-in that occurred in Cyprus.

MrB

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Re: EGFEY - Eurobank
« Reply #415 on: March 03, 2016, 09:20:37 AM »
2015 results

35% npl, 65% coverage
44% npe, 52% coverage
npe provision & collateral coverage 102%
tbv/share €2.45

plenty of work to be done but figures could be called cautiously optimistic?

The results are weaker than Bank of Cyprus. Bank of Cyprus trades at a similar valuation but the economy is in a better shape. Also BoC/Hellenic are the duopolies. But in Greece there are four players.

Somehow BoC draws far less investor interest on this board. Any reasons?

I agree with the general logic that there might be an arbitrage here, but I think the slowdown in momentum of the reforms in Cyprus is a concern, as well as the announcement and retraction of Hourican's departure. I think in this case the "family reasons" are credible, but it still dented confidence.
The question is at what price is the difference significant enough to switch?

rijk

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Re: EGFEY - Eurobank
« Reply #416 on: March 08, 2016, 12:42:39 AM »
positive developments....

Euro zone to discuss Greek debt relief soon, after reform review

http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-greece-debt-idUKKCN0W91Q2

muscleman

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Re: EGFEY - Eurobank
« Reply #417 on: March 10, 2016, 07:56:55 AM »
2015 results

35% npl, 65% coverage
44% npe, 52% coverage
npe provision & collateral coverage 102%
tbv/share €2.45

plenty of work to be done but figures could be called cautiously optimistic?

The results are weaker than Bank of Cyprus. Bank of Cyprus trades at a similar valuation but the economy is in a better shape. Also BoC/Hellenic are the duopolies. But in Greece there are four players.

Somehow BoC draws far less investor interest on this board. Any reasons?

I agree with the general logic that there might be an arbitrage here, but I think the slowdown in momentum of the reforms in Cyprus is a concern, as well as the announcement and retraction of Hourican's departure. I think in this case the "family reasons" are credible, but it still dented confidence.
The question is at what price is the difference significant enough to switch?

The valuation for BoC vs EGFEY in terms of price/book value is similar. However the macro environment is vastly different.

"economic growth of 1.6 per cent, a nearly balanced budget with a primary surplus of around 2.5 per cent, a steadily reducing public debt"
http://www.jordantimes.com/opinion/nikos-christodoulides/cyprus-economy-turning-page

I believe the macro stabilization gives you the margin of safety for banks, not the price/book ratio. We all know what happened when the price/book ratio makes it looks like cheap and then a recapitalization kicks in.

In addition, BoC and Hellenic banks are the only players in town. Hellenic is way smaller than BoC. But in Greece you got four players.

With that said, I haven't studied EGFEY for quite a few months, so maybe the situation is turning now?

rijk

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Re: EGFEY - Eurobank
« Reply #418 on: March 12, 2016, 12:58:04 AM »
fairfax letter

2015 was very turbulent for Greece as it went through a referendum, had capital controls imposed on its banking
system, had another election which resulted in a majority government for the Syriza party and was trying to cope
with an unprecedented migration of refugees from Syria. Prime Minister Tsipras appointed Euclid Tsakalotos as
Finance Minister. Recently, we took ten institutional investors to Greece for an update from the Prime Minister and
the Finance Minister. While there are no guarantees in life, it seems to us that the Greek government and the citizens
of Greece have clearly rejected leaving the euro (going back to the drachma) and are implementing the reform
program required by the Troika. In spite of the massive uncertainties in Greece in 2015, the economy was flat and
unemployment came down from 27.9% in 2013 to 24.6%. Housing construction is down over 90% from the high
while automobile sales are down 75% from the top. Greece’s economy has hit bottom and given some stability in the
political environment, should recover strongly, not unlike Ireland in the last few years.
With this as a backdrop, we experienced one of our largest unrealized losses ever in our holdings of Eurobank. As
discussed in last year’s Annual Report, in 2014, as part of a large group of institutional investors investing A2.9 billion
so as to allow Eurobank to successfully pass the ECB stress test, we invested A400 million at 31 euro cents per share in
Eurobank. With the uncertainties of 2015 discussed above and the bank capital controls, the ECB imposed another
very severe stress test on the Greek banks that resulted in an additional capital raise of A2.039 billion at 1 euro cent
per share – yes, you read that right – 1 euro cent!! At that price, after the issue, Eurobank was selling at 39% of book
value and 3.1 times normalized earnings. We invested A350 million for an average total cost per share of 2.2 euro
cents versus a book value of 2.5 euro cents per share and a normalized price/earnings ratio of 6.9 times.
After a consolidation of 100 to 1, Eurobank began trading at A1 per share. Early in 2016, Eurobank, in sympathy with
other European banks, declined to 30 euro cents per share; it is now trading at about 77 euro cents per share.
Unbelievable! And they say markets are efficient! We continue to be confident in the management team of Eurobank
with Fokion Karavias as CEO and Nikos Karamouzis as Chairman.
Our other Greek investments – Grivalia, led by George Chryssikos, Praktiker Greece, led by Ioannis Selalmazidis and
Mytilineous, led by Evangelos Mytilineos – continue to do well in a very difficult economic environment. We are
very fortunate to have Wade Burton, a member of our Investment Committee, leading the charge on our Greek
investments. Brad Martin, also on the Board of Eurobank, has backed him well. Our time will come in Greece!

MrB

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Re: EGFEY - Eurobank
« Reply #419 on: May 17, 2016, 09:24:23 AM »
FROM REUTERS - UPDATE 1-Greek lender Eurobank posts first quarterly profit since 2011
11:32 AM Eastern Daylight Time May 17, 2016
    * Eurobank posts profit of 60 mln euros in first quarter
    * Non-performing credit drops to 34.8 pct of loan book
    * Bad debt provisions fall 33.4 pct from end of 2015

 (Adds CEO comment, details)
    By George Georgiopoulos
    ATHENS, May 17 (Reuters) - Greek lender Eurobank <EURBr.AT>
reported its first quarterly profit since 2011 in the first
three months of the year, helped by lower provisions for bad
loans and stronger net interest income.
    Kicking off the earnings season for Greek banks, the
third-largest lender by assets reported net profit of 60 million
euros ($68 million) after a loss of 175 million euros in the
final quarter of 2015.
    It was Eurobank's first profitable quarter since the third
quarter of 2011.
    "The results confirm that Eurobank is on course to achieve
its main aim, to be profitable in 2016. We had the first
positive result after five years of unprecedented challenges in
the Greek banking system," Chief Executive Fokion Karavias said
in a statement.
    Greek banks are still troubled by large problem loan
portfolios after the country's deep, protracted recession pushed
unemployment to record highs, making it hard for borrowers to
service their debts.
    More than 40 percent of the sector's loans are