Author Topic: FB - Facebook  (Read 154973 times)

philly value

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Re: FB - Facebook
« Reply #480 on: March 02, 2018, 06:48:12 AM »
Fun stat: Facebook's GAAP EBT increased 64% in 2017. The stock is up 26% over the past 12 months, and +50% since the beginning of 2017.

Ex-cash and adjusting for the (minor) amount of acquisition-related SBC/amort left in the #s, FB trades at a low-20s multiple of 2018 earnings.


walkie518

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Re: FB - Facebook
« Reply #481 on: March 02, 2018, 12:29:15 PM »

Liberty

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Jerry Capital

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Re: FB - Facebook
« Reply #483 on: March 20, 2018, 06:42:58 AM »
Eerily quiet on the Facebook front here.

Anyone have thoughts on current valuation, current valuation relative to Alphabet. I am trying to figure out at what price you just don't have a choice but to get long. I think we are getting close.

adventurer

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Re: FB - Facebook
« Reply #484 on: March 20, 2018, 06:53:21 AM »
I currently do not have an idea regarding valuation. But in what respect do the current events have an influence on Facebook`s profitability? I mean I don`t see why millions of users would delete their account due to a scandal regarding the election. Because Fb`s function stays the same, nothing changes for them.

philly value

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Re: FB - Facebook
« Reply #485 on: March 20, 2018, 09:16:27 AM »
Eerily quiet on the Facebook front here.

Anyone have thoughts on current valuation, current valuation relative to Alphabet. I am trying to figure out at what price you just don't have a choice but to get long. I think we are getting close.

On Core Earnings for Google (excluding Other Bets), GOOG is trading at low-twenties (21x or so) 2018 earnings, ex-cash. FB trades at a similar multiple, maybe a bit lower at the moment depending on your assumptions. That said, I think the growth opportunity for FB (% growth, not necessarily absolute $ growth - FB and GOOG are capturing a similar % of incremental ad dollars but FB is off of a much smaller base) remains meaningfully higher than GOOG.

We're in an interesting spot. The regulatory risk is real, and this is likely to make it more likely that FB experiences real pain from GDPR this May in Europe. There's also now some risk GDPR-like data protection philosophy spreads to the U.S. I think the impact of the current situation is near impossible to quantify, which should make you uncomfortable for good reason, but I think the realistic scenarios where you lose money (long term) buying FB at current prices is also limited.


Jerry Capital

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Re: FB - Facebook
« Reply #486 on: March 20, 2018, 09:51:10 AM »
They guided to capex of 15$ billion for 2018 (double 2017 7$ billion)... These numbers are baked into sell side, under what scenario can they possibly spend this?

walkie518

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Re: FB - Facebook
« Reply #487 on: March 20, 2018, 10:35:28 AM »
In the 10-K there's a note on other liabilties that doesn't seem match up with the cash flow statement.

There's $9.5B of "other liabilities."  They note in the 10K shows two tranches: (1) accrued expenses and other current liabilities ($2.8B) and (2) income tax payable and "other liabilities" ($6.4B).  Income tax payalbe is $5.4B for 2017.  The operating statement shows $4.7B provision for income taxes.  Does this mean that 2018 taxes will be that much higher or that the 2017 tax provision is understated fairly substantially?

This is a little confusing especially since we see a provision for income taxes on the operating statement that is far less than the income tax payable line in the liabilities note.  Can anyone explain?

DTEJD1997

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Re: FB - Facebook
« Reply #488 on: March 20, 2018, 10:59:56 AM »
I currently do not have an idea regarding valuation. But in what respect do the current events have an influence on Facebook`s profitability? I mean I don`t see why millions of users would delete their account due to a scandal regarding the election. Because Fb`s function stays the same, nothing changes for them.
I very well could see why millions of people would eventually delete OR drastically cut back on Facebook/social media usage.

I stopped using Facebook YEARS ago.  If somebody as dim witted as I am could see that the Facebook was FILLED to the brim with scams and fraudsters back then, what is it like now?  I can't even imagine.

A good example of ONE of the scams/frauds going on with Facebook years ago was that a "hot" looking woman several states away from me wants to be friends!  I don't know her, I am not in her profession, we don't have any common friends that I am aware of.

Now don't get me wrong, I am a pretty handsome dude, and a good catch!  So of course I became friends with this "woman"...A few days later the same thing happened again!  I wondered why didn't I get on Facebook sooner!  So I sent a message to both these "women"...nothing, radio silence.

Some more time passes, and more & more & more women want to be friends...so now I'm wondering why I am such a hot commodity?  With a just a few minutes of research, it was obvious these hot "women" were bots, collecting information on me.  Who knows for what purpose.

Other goofy things went on before I shut it down...

I suspect I am not the only one who experienced something like this on the Facebook.

Now the Facebook has been shown to be wrapped in stealing the election from Hillary!  Who knows what other stuff they are wrapped up in?

I really dislike social media...the people who need to interact with me know about me.  They can write me, they can visit me, they can call me, they can email me.

LONG on privacy, SHORT on Facebook/social media

sleepydragon

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Re: FB - Facebook
« Reply #489 on: March 20, 2018, 11:23:57 AM »
I currently do not have an idea regarding valuation. But in what respect do the current events have an influence on Facebook`s profitability? I mean I don`t see why millions of users would delete their account due to a scandal regarding the election. Because Fb`s function stays the same, nothing changes for them.
I very well could see why millions of people would eventually delete OR drastically cut back on Facebook/social media usage.

I stopped using Facebook YEARS ago.  If somebody as dim witted as I am could see that the Facebook was FILLED to the brim with scams and fraudsters back then, what is it like now?  I can't even imagine.

A good example of ONE of the scams/frauds going on with Facebook years ago was that a "hot" looking woman several states away from me wants to be friends!  I don't know her, I am not in her profession, we don't have any common friends that I am aware of.

Now don't get me wrong, I am a pretty handsome dude, and a good catch!  So of course I became friends with this "woman"...A few days later the same thing happened again!  I wondered why didn't I get on Facebook sooner!  So I sent a message to both these "women"...nothing, radio silence.

Some more time passes, and more & more & more women want to be friends...so now I'm wondering why I am such a hot commodity?  With a just a few minutes of research, it was obvious these hot "women" were bots, collecting information on me.  Who knows for what purpose.

Other goofy things went on before I shut it down... ???

I suspect I am not the only one who experienced something like this on the Facebook.

Now the Facebook has been shown to be wrapped in stealing the election from Hillary!  Who knows what other stuff they are wrapped up in?

I really dislike social media...the people who need to interact with me know about me.  They can write me, they can visit me, they can call me, they can email me.

LONG on privacy, SHORT on Facebook/social media

Did you tell your wife about your fb story?  ;)